The Five Planets in the Kepler-296 Binary System All Orbit the Primary: A Statistical and Analytical Analysis

Kepler-296 is a binary star system with two M-dwarf components separated by 0.2 arcsec. Five transiting planets have been confirmed to be associated with the Kepler-296 system; given the evidence to date, however, the planets could in principle orbit either star. This ambiguity has made it difficult to constrain both the orbital and physical properties of the planets. Using both statistical and analytical arguments, this paper shows that all five planets are highly likely to orbit the primary star in this system. We performed a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo simulation using a five transiting planet model, leaving the stellar density and dilution with uniform priors. Using importance sampling, we compared the model probabilities under the priors of the planets orbiting either the brighter or the fainter component of the binary. A model where the planets orbit the brighter component, Kepler-296A, is strongly preferred by the data. Combined with our assertion that all five planets orbit the same star, the two outer planets in the system, Kepler-296 Ae and Kepler-296 Af, have radii of 1.53 +/- 0.26 and 1.80 +/- 0.31 R_earth, respectively, and receive incident stellar fluxes of 1.40 +/- 0.23 and 0.62 +/- 0.10 times the incident flux the Earth receives from the Sun. This level of irradiation places both planets within or close to the circumstellar habitable zone of their parent star.Comment: Accepted for publication in Ap

VPLanet: The Virtual Planet Simulator

We describe a software package called VPLanet that simulates fundamental aspects of planetary system evolution over Gyr timescales, with a focus on investigating habitable worlds. In this initial release, eleven physics modules are included that model internal, atmospheric, rotational, orbital, stellar, and galactic processes. Many of these modules can be coupled simultaneously to simulate the evolution of terrestrial planets, gaseous planets, and stars. The code is validated by reproducing a selection of observations and past results. VPLanet is written in C and designed so that the user can choose the physics modules to apply to an individual object at runtime without recompiling, i.e., a single executable can simulate the diverse phenomena that are relevant to a wide range of planetary and stellar systems. This feature is enabled by matrices and vectors of function pointers that are dynamically allocated and populated based on user input. The speed and modularity of VPLanet enables large parameter sweeps and the versatility to add/remove physical phenomena to assess their importance. VPLanet is publicly available from a repository that contains extensive documentation, numerous examples, Python scripts for plotting and data management, and infrastructure for community input and future development.Comment: 75 pages, 34 figures, 10 tables, accepted to the Proceedings of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific. Source code, documentation, and examples available at https://github.com/VirtualPlanetaryLaboratory/vplane

The Hunt for Exomoons with Kepler (HEK): I. Description of a New Observational Project

Two decades ago, empirical evidence concerning the existence and frequency of planets around stars, other than our own, was absent. Since this time, the detection of extrasolar planets from Jupiter-sized to most recently Earth-sized worlds has blossomed and we are finally able to shed light on the plurality of Earth-like, habitable planets in the cosmos. Extrasolar moons may also be frequent habitable worlds but their detection or even systematic pursuit remains lacking in the current literature. Here, we present a description of the first systematic search for extrasolar moons as part of a new observational project called "The Hunt for Exomoons with Kepler" (HEK). The HEK project distills the entire list of known transiting planet candidates found by Kepler (2326 at the time of writing) down to the most promising candidates for hosting a moon. Selected targets are fitted using a multimodal nested sampling algorithm coupled with a planet-with-moon light curve modelling routine. By comparing the Bayesian evidence of a planet-only model to that of a planet-with-moon, the detection process is handled in a Bayesian framework. In the case of null detections, upper limits derived from posteriors marginalised over the entire prior volume will be provided to inform the frequency of large moons around viable planetary hosts, eta-moon. After discussing our methodologies for target selection, modelling, fitting and vetting, we provide two example analyses.Comment: 21 pages, 8 figures, 4 tables, accepted in Ap

Detectability of Transiting Jupiters and Low-Mass Eclipsing Binaries in Sparsely Sampled Pan-STARRS-1 Survey Data

We present detailed simulations of the Pan-STARRS-1 (PS1) multi-epoch, multi-band 3-pi Survey in order to assess its potential yield of transiting planets and eclipsing binaries. This survey differs from dedicated transit surveys in that it will cover the entire Northern sky but provide only sparsely sampled light curves. Since most eclipses would be detected at only a single epoch, the 3-pi Survey will be most sensitive to deep eclipses (> 0.10 mag) caused by Jupiters transiting M dwarfs and eclipsing stellar/substellar binaries. The survey will also provide parallaxes for the ~400,000 stars within 100 pc which will enable a volume-limited eclipse search, reducing the number of astrophysical false positives compared to previous magnitude-limited searches. Using the best available empirical data, we constructed a model of the extended solar neighborhood that includes stars, brown dwarfs, and a realistic binary population. We computed the yield of deeply eclipsing systems using both a semi-analytic and a full Monte Carlo approach. We examined statistical tests for detecting single-epoch eclipses in sparsely sampled data and assessed their vulnerability to false positives due to stellar variability. Assuming a short-period planet frequency of 0.5% for M dwarfs, our simulations predict that about a dozen transiting Jupiters around low-mass stars (M < 0.3 Msun) within 100 pc are potentially detectable in the PS1 3-pi Survey, along with ~300 low-mass eclipsing binaries (both component masses < 0.5 Msun), including ~10 eclipsing field brown dwarfs. Extensive follow-up observations would be required to characterize these candidate eclipsing systems, thereby enabling comprehensive tests of structural models and novel insights into the planetary architecture of low-mass stars.Comment: ApJ, in pres