Large scale probabilistic available bandwidth estimation

The common utilization-based definition of available bandwidth and many of the existing tools to estimate it suffer from several important weaknesses: i) most tools report a point estimate of average available bandwidth over a measurement interval and do not provide a confidence interval; ii) the commonly adopted models used to relate the available bandwidth metric to the measured data are invalid in almost all practical scenarios; iii) existing tools do not scale well and are not suited to the task of multi-path estimation in large-scale networks; iv) almost all tools use ad-hoc techniques to address measurement noise; and v) tools do not provide enough flexibility in terms of accuracy, overhead, latency and reliability to adapt to the requirements of various applications. In this paper we propose a new definition for available bandwidth and a novel framework that addresses these issues. We define probabilistic available bandwidth (PAB) as the largest input rate at which we can send a traffic flow along a path while achieving, with specified probability, an output rate that is almost as large as the input rate. PAB is expressed directly in terms of the measurable output rate and includes adjustable parameters that allow the user to adapt to different application requirements. Our probabilistic framework to estimate network-wide probabilistic available bandwidth is based on packet trains, Bayesian inference, factor graphs and active sampling. We deploy our tool on the PlanetLab network and our results show that we can obtain accurate estimates with a much smaller measurement overhead compared to existing approaches.Comment: Submitted to Computer Network

Physics-guided Residual Learning for Probabilistic Power Flow Analysis

Probabilistic power flow (PPF) analysis is critical to power system operation and planning. PPF aims at obtaining probabilistic descriptions of the state of the system with stochastic power injections (e.g., renewable power generation and load demands). Given power injection samples, numerical methods repeatedly run classic power flow (PF) solvers to find the voltage phasors. However, the computational burden is heavy due to many PF simulations. Recently, many data-driven based PF solvers have been proposed due to the availability of sufficient measurements. This paper proposes a novel neural network (NN) framework which can accurately approximate the non-linear AC-PF equations. The trained NN works as a rapid PF solver, significantly reducing the heavy computational burden in classic PPF analysis. Inspired by residual learning, we develop a fully connected linear layer between the input and output in the multilayer perceptron (MLP). To improve the NN training convergence, we propose three schemes to initialize the NN weights of the shortcut connection layer based on the physical characteristics of AC-PF equations. Specifically, two model-based methods require the knowledge of system topology and line parameters, while the purely data-driven method can work without power grid parameters. Numerical tests on five benchmark systems show that our proposed approaches achieve higher accuracy in estimating voltage phasors than existing methods. In addition, three meticulously designed initialization schemes help the NN training process converge faster, which is appealing under limited training time.Comment: Probabilistic power flow, data-driven, residual learning, neural network, physics-guided initializatio

Visual Dynamics: Probabilistic Future Frame Synthesis via Cross Convolutional Networks

We study the problem of synthesizing a number of likely future frames from a single input image. In contrast to traditional methods, which have tackled this problem in a deterministic or non-parametric way, we propose a novel approach that models future frames in a probabilistic manner. Our probabilistic model makes it possible for us to sample and synthesize many possible future frames from a single input image. Future frame synthesis is challenging, as it involves low- and high-level image and motion understanding. We propose a novel network structure, namely a Cross Convolutional Network to aid in synthesizing future frames; this network structure encodes image and motion information as feature maps and convolutional kernels, respectively. In experiments, our model performs well on synthetic data, such as 2D shapes and animated game sprites, as well as on real-wold videos. We also show that our model can be applied to tasks such as visual analogy-making, and present an analysis of the learned network representations.Comment: The first two authors contributed equally to this wor

Multivariate decoding of brain images using ordinal regression.

Neuroimaging data are increasingly being used to predict potential outcomes or groupings, such as clinical severity, drug dose response, and transitional illness states. In these examples, the variable (target) we want to predict is ordinal in nature. Conventional classification schemes assume that the targets are nominal and hence ignore their ranked nature, whereas parametric and/or non-parametric regression models enforce a metric notion of distance between classes. Here, we propose a novel, alternative multivariate approach that overcomes these limitations - whole brain probabilistic ordinal regression using a Gaussian process framework. We applied this technique to two data sets of pharmacological neuroimaging data from healthy volunteers. The first study was designed to investigate the effect of ketamine on brain activity and its subsequent modulation with two compounds - lamotrigine and risperidone. The second study investigates the effect of scopolamine on cerebral blood flow and its modulation using donepezil. We compared ordinal regression to multi-class classification schemes and metric regression. Considering the modulation of ketamine with lamotrigine, we found that ordinal regression significantly outperformed multi-class classification and metric regression in terms of accuracy and mean absolute error. However, for risperidone ordinal regression significantly outperformed metric regression but performed similarly to multi-class classification both in terms of accuracy and mean absolute error. For the scopolamine data set, ordinal regression was found to outperform both multi-class and metric regression techniques considering the regional cerebral blood flow in the anterior cingulate cortex. Ordinal regression was thus the only method that performed well in all cases. Our results indicate the potential of an ordinal regression approach for neuroimaging data while providing a fully probabilistic framework with elegant approaches for model selection

Visual Dynamics: Stochastic Future Generation via Layered Cross Convolutional Networks

We study the problem of synthesizing a number of likely future frames from a single input image. In contrast to traditional methods that have tackled this problem in a deterministic or non-parametric way, we propose to model future frames in a probabilistic manner. Our probabilistic model makes it possible for us to sample and synthesize many possible future frames from a single input image. To synthesize realistic movement of objects, we propose a novel network structure, namely a Cross Convolutional Network; this network encodes image and motion information as feature maps and convolutional kernels, respectively. In experiments, our model performs well on synthetic data, such as 2D shapes and animated game sprites, and on real-world video frames. We present analyses of the learned network representations, showing it is implicitly learning a compact encoding of object appearance and motion. We also demonstrate a few of its applications, including visual analogy-making and video extrapolation.Comment: Journal preprint of arXiv:1607.02586 (IEEE TPAMI, 2019). The first two authors contributed equally to this work. Project page: http://visualdynamics.csail.mit.ed