Agent based modelling and simulation: An examination of customer retention in the UK mobile market

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University.Customer retention is an important issue for any business, especially in mature markets such as the UK mobile market where new customers can only be acquired from competitors. Different methods and techniques have been used to investigate customer retention including statistical methods and data mining. However, due to the increasing complexity of the mobile market, the effectiveness of these techniques is questionable. This study proposes Agent-Based Modelling and Simulation (ABMS) as a novel approach to investigate customer retention. ABMS is an emerging means of simulating behaviour and examining behavioural consequences. In outline, agents represent customers and agent relationships represent processes of agent interaction. This study follows the design science paradigm to build and evaluate a generic, reusable, agent-based (CubSim) model to examine the factors affecting customer retention based on data extracted from a UK mobile operator. Based on these data, two data mining models are built to gain a better understanding of the problem domain and to identify the main limitations of data mining. This is followed by two interrelated development cycles: (1) Build the CubSim model, starting with modelling customer interaction with the market, including interaction with the service provider and other competing operators in the market; and (2) Extend the CubSim model by incorporating interaction among customers. The key contribution of this study lies in using ABMS to identify and model the key factors that affect customer retention simultaneously and jointly. In this manner, the CubSim model is better suited to account for the dynamics of customer churn behaviour in the UK mobile market than all other existing models. Another important contribution of this study is that it provides an empirical, actionable insight on customer retention. In particular, and most interestingly, the experimental results show that applying a mixed customer retention strategy targeting both high value customers and customers with a large personal network outperforms the traditional customer retention strategies, which focuses only on the customer‘s value.This work is funded by the Brunel Department of Information Systems and Computing (DISC

Three dimensional modelling of customer satisfaction, retention and loyalty for measuring quality of service

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University.The aim of this thesis is to propose a model that explains the relationship between customer satisfaction, retention and loyalty based on service quality attributes. The three elements of satisfaction, retention and loyalty towards products represent ongoing challenges for the corporate financial performance. Customer behaviour analysis (known as business intelligence or customer relationship management or customer experience management) has become a major factor in the corporate decision making and strategic planning processes. Prevailing logic dictates that by improving service attributes one should expect better customer satisfaction levels. Consequently, improved satisfaction levels should increase the probability of customer retention and degree of loyalty. Substantial research work has been dedicated to explain the importance of customer behaviour measurement for industry. However, there is little evidence that there has been an overall integrating empirical research that relates the three elements of satisfaction, retention and loyalty with respect to service quality attributes. Empirical data collected from the UK mobile telecommunication for this research shows that such an objective model that is capable of capturing this three dimensional relationship will contribute towards more robust decision making and better strategic planning. The proposed thesis extracts the data about key service attributes from a combination of literature review, surveys, and interviews from the UK mobile telecommunication industry. Responses were analysed using multiple regression, regression analysis with dummy variables, logistic regression, logistic regression with dummy variables and structural equation modelling (SEM) to test variables and their interrelationships. This study makes a step forward and contributes to the body of knowledge as it: (a) highlights the role of service attribute performance towards customer satisfaction, consequently identifies attributes that affect satisfaction and dissatisfaction of customers, (b) maps the relationship between attribute importance and attribute performance, (c) optimise resource allocation process using importance-performance analysis (IPA), (d) classifies customers with respect to the role and length of relationship they have with the company (switching probability), and (e) describes the interrelationship between customer satisfaction, retention and loyalty. The novelty of the research lies in: (a) establishment of a framework that links service attribute performance to customer satisfaction and then to customer future intentions (customer retention and customer loyalty), and (b) provision of a model that could assist key decision makers in prudent usage of resources for maximum profitability. This dissertation presents a novel approach methodology and modelling construct for customer behaviour analysis. For proof of concept it presents a case study in the mobile telecommunication industry. It is worth noting that in this research work Customer Retention is interpreted as probability of switching between service providers. Customer Loyalty is interpreted as referral (word-of-mouth) activity by existing customers

Three dimensional modelling of customer satisfaction, retention and loyalty for measuring quality of service

The aim of this thesis is to propose a model that explains the relationship between customer satisfaction, retention and loyalty based on service quality attributes. The three elements of satisfaction, retention and loyalty towards products represent ongoing challenges for the corporate financial performance. Customer behaviour analysis (known as business intelligence or customer relationship management or customer experience management) has become a major factor in the corporate decision making and strategic planning processes. Prevailing logic dictates that by improving service attributes one should expect better customer satisfaction levels. Consequently, improved satisfaction levels should increase the probability of customer retention and degree of loyalty. Substantial research work has been dedicated to explain the importance of customer behaviour measurement for industry. However, there is little evidence that there has been an overall integrating empirical research that relates the three elements of satisfaction, retention and loyalty with respect to service quality attributes. Empirical data collected from the UK mobile telecommunication for this research shows that such an objective model that is capable of capturing this three dimensional relationship will contribute towards more robust decision making and better strategic planning. The proposed thesis extracts the data about key service attributes from a combination of literature review, surveys, and interviews from the UK mobile telecommunication industry. Responses were analysed using multiple regression, regression analysis with dummy variables, logistic regression, logistic regression with dummy variables and structural equation modelling (SEM) to test variables and their interrelationships. This study makes a step forward and contributes to the body of knowledge as it: (a) highlights the role of service attribute performance towards customer satisfaction, consequently identifies attributes that affect satisfaction and dissatisfaction of customers, (b) maps the relationship between attribute importance and attribute performance, (c) optimise resource allocation process using importance-performance analysis (IPA), (d) classifies customers with respect to the role and length of relationship they have with the company (switching probability), and (e) describes the interrelationship between customer satisfaction, retention and loyalty. The novelty of the research lies in: (a) establishment of a framework that links service attribute performance to customer satisfaction and then to customer future intentions (customer retention and customer loyalty), and (b) provision of a model that could assist key decision makers in prudent usage of resources for maximum profitability. This dissertation presents a novel approach methodology and modelling construct for customer behaviour analysis. For proof of concept it presents a case study in the mobile telecommunication industry. It is worth noting that in this research work Customer Retention is interpreted as probability of switching between service providers. Customer Loyalty is interpreted as referral (word-of-mouth) activity by existing customers.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Process Framework for Subscriber Management and Retention in Nigerian Telecommunication Industry

in the global telecommunication industry. Hence, a dominant approach for subscriber management and retention is churn control, since it is cheaper to retain an existing subscriber than acquiring a new one. Predictive modeling employs the use of data mining techniques to identify patterns and provide a result that a group of subscribers are likely to churn in the near future. However, the effectiveness of subscriber retention strategy in an organization can be further boosted if the reason for churn and the timing of churn can also be predicted. In this paper, we propose a data mining process framework that can be used to predict churn, determine when a subscriber is likely to churn, provides the reason why a subscriber may churn, and recommend appropriate intervention strategy for customer retention using a combination of statistical and machine learning techniques. This experiment is carried out using data from a major telecom operator in Nigeria