Bayesian Model Selection in Complex Linear Systems, as Illustrated in Genetic Association Studies

Motivated by examples from genetic association studies, this paper considers the model selection problem in a general complex linear model system and in a Bayesian framework. We discuss formulating model selection problems and incorporating context-dependent {\it a priori} information through different levels of prior specifications. We also derive analytic Bayes factors and their approximations to facilitate model selection and discuss their theoretical and computational properties. We demonstrate our Bayesian approach based on an implemented Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm in simulations and a real data application of mapping tissue-specific eQTLs. Our novel results on Bayes factors provide a general framework to perform efficient model comparisons in complex linear model systems

Methodological Issues in Multistage Genome-Wide Association Studies

Because of the high cost of commercial genotyping chip technologies, many investigations have used a two-stage design for genome-wide association studies, using part of the sample for an initial discovery of ``promising'' SNPs at a less stringent significance level and the remainder in a joint analysis of just these SNPs using custom genotyping. Typical cost savings of about 50% are possible with this design to obtain comparable levels of overall type I error and power by using about half the sample for stage I and carrying about 0.1% of SNPs forward to the second stage, the optimal design depending primarily upon the ratio of costs per genotype for stages I and II. However, with the rapidly declining costs of the commercial panels, the generally low observed ORs of current studies, and many studies aiming to test multiple hypotheses and multiple endpoints, many investigators are abandoning the two-stage design in favor of simply genotyping all available subjects using a standard high-density panel. Concern is sometimes raised about the absence of a ``replication'' panel in this approach, as required by some high-profile journals, but it must be appreciated that the two-stage design is not a discovery/replication design but simply a more efficient design for discovery using a joint analysis of the data from both stages. Once a subset of highly-significant associations has been discovered, a truly independent ``exact replication'' study is needed in a similar population of the same promising SNPs using similar methods.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-STS288 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Bayesian semiparametric analysis for two-phase studies of gene-environment interaction

The two-phase sampling design is a cost-efficient way of collecting expensive covariate information on a judiciously selected subsample. It is natural to apply such a strategy for collecting genetic data in a subsample enriched for exposure to environmental factors for gene-environment interaction (G x E) analysis. In this paper, we consider two-phase studies of G x E interaction where phase I data are available on exposure, covariates and disease status. Stratified sampling is done to prioritize individuals for genotyping at phase II conditional on disease and exposure. We consider a Bayesian analysis based on the joint retrospective likelihood of phases I and II data. We address several important statistical issues: (i) we consider a model with multiple genes, environmental factors and their pairwise interactions. We employ a Bayesian variable selection algorithm to reduce the dimensionality of this potentially high-dimensional model; (ii) we use the assumption of gene-gene and gene-environment independence to trade off between bias and efficiency for estimating the interaction parameters through use of hierarchical priors reflecting this assumption; (iii) we posit a flexible model for the joint distribution of the phase I categorical variables using the nonparametric Bayes construction of Dunson and Xing [J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 104 (2009) 1042-1051].Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/12-AOAS599 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Tracing Sub-Structure in the European American Population with PCA-Informative Markers

Genetic structure in the European American population reflects waves of migration and recent gene flow among different populations. This complex structure can introduce bias in genetic association studies. Using Principal Components Analysis (PCA), we analyze the structure of two independent European American datasets (1,521 individuals–307,315 autosomal SNPs). Individual variation lies across a continuum with some individuals showing high degrees of admixture with non-European populations, as demonstrated through joint analysis with HapMap data. The CEPH Europeans only represent a small fraction of the variation encountered in the larger European American datasets we studied. We interpret the first eigenvector of this data as correlated with ancestry, and we apply an algorithm that we have previously described to select PCA-informative markers (PCAIMs) that can reproduce this structure. Importantly, we develop a novel method that can remove redundancy from the selected SNP panels and show that we can effectively remove correlated markers, thus increasing genotyping savings. Only 150–200 PCAIMs suffice to accurately predict fine structure in European American datasets, as identified by PCA. Simulating association studies, we couple our method with a PCA-based stratification correction tool and demonstrate that a small number of PCAIMs can efficiently remove false correlations with almost no loss in power. The structure informative SNPs that we propose are an important resource for genetic association studies of European Americans. Furthermore, our redundancy removal algorithm can be applied on sets of ancestry informative markers selected with any method in order to select the most uncorrelated SNPs, and significantly decreases genotyping costs

Genetic-Based Hypertension Subtype Identification Using Informative SNPs

In this work, we proposed a process to select informative genetic variants for identifying clinically meaningful subtypes of hypertensive patients. We studied 575 African American (AA) and 612 Caucasian hypertensive participants enrolled in the Hypertension Genetic Epidemiology Network (HyperGEN) study and analyzed each race-based group separately. All study participants underwent GWAS (Genome-Wide Association Studies) and echocardiography. We applied a variety of statistical methods and filtering criteria, including generalized linear models, F statistics, burden tests, deleterious variant filtering, and others to select the most informative hypertension-related genetic variants. We performed an unsupervised learning algorithm non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) to identify hypertension subtypes with similar genetic characteristics. Kruskal–Wallis tests were used to demonstrate the clinical meaningfulness of genetic-based hypertension subtypes. Two subgroups were identified for both African American and Caucasian HyperGEN participants. In both AAs and Caucasians, indices of cardiac mechanics differed significantly by hypertension subtypes. African Americans tend to have more genetic variants compared to Caucasians; therefore, using genetic information to distinguish the disease subtypes for this group of people is relatively challenging, but we were able to identify two subtypes whose cardiac mechanics have statistically different distributions using the proposed process. The research gives a promising direction in using statistical methods to select genetic information and identify subgroups of diseases, which may inform the development and trial of novel targeted therapies

PCA-Correlated SNPs for Structure Identification in Worldwide Human Populations

Existing methods to ascertain small sets of markers for the identification of human population structure require prior knowledge of individual ancestry. Based on Principal Components Analysis (PCA), and recent results in theoretical computer science, we present a novel algorithm that, applied on genomewide data, selects small subsets of SNPs (PCA-correlated SNPs) to reproduce the structure found by PCA on the complete dataset, without use of ancestry information. Evaluating our method on a previously described dataset (10,805 SNPs, 11 populations), we demonstrate that a very small set of PCA-correlated SNPs can be effectively employed to assign individuals to particular continents or populations, using a simple clustering algorithm. We validate our methods on the HapMap populations and achieve perfect intercontinental differentiation with 14 PCA-correlated SNPs. The Chinese and Japanese populations can be easily differentiated using less than 100 PCA-correlated SNPs ascertained after evaluating 1.7 million SNPs from HapMap. We show that, in general, structure informative SNPs are not portable across geographic regions. However, we manage to identify a general set of 50 PCA-correlated SNPs that effectively assigns individuals to one of nine different populations. Compared to analysis with the measure of informativeness, our methods, although unsupervised, achieved similar results. We proceed to demonstrate that our algorithm can be effectively used for the analysis of admixed populations without having to trace the origin of individuals. Analyzing a Puerto Rican dataset (192 individuals, 7,257 SNPs), we show that PCA-correlated SNPs can be used to successfully predict structure and ancestry proportions. We subsequently validate these SNPs for structure identification in an independent Puerto Rican dataset. The algorithm that we introduce runs in seconds and can be easily applied on large genome-wide datasets, facilitating the identification of population substructure, stratification assessment in multi-stage whole-genome association studies, and the study of demographic history in human populations

A Panel of Ancestry Informative Markers for the Complex Five-Way Admixed South African Coloured Population

Admixture is a well known confounder in genetic association studies. If genome-wide data is not available, as would be the case for candidate gene studies, ancestry informative markers (AIMs) are required in order to adjust for admixture. The predominant population group in the Western Cape, South Africa, is the admixed group known as the South African Coloured (SAC). A small set of AIMs that is optimized to distinguish between the five source populations of this population (African San, African non-San, European, South Asian, and East Asian) will enable researchers to cost-effectively reduce false-positive findings resulting from ignoring admixture in genetic association studies of the population. Using genome-wide data to find SNPs with large allele frequency differences between the source populations of the SAC, as quantified by Rosenberg et. al's -statistic, we developed a panel of AIMs by experimenting with various selection strategies. Subsets of different sizes were evaluated by measuring the correlation between ancestry proportions estimated by each AIM subset with ancestry proportions estimated using genome-wide data. We show that a panel of 96 AIMs can be used to assess ancestry proportions and to adjust for the confounding effect of the complex five-way admixture that occurred in the South African Coloured population.Department of HE and Training approved lis