Wind Power Forecasting Methods Based on Deep Learning: A Survey

Accurate wind power forecasting in wind farm can effectively reduce the enormous impact on grid operation safety when high permeability intermittent power supply is connected to the power grid. Aiming to provide reference strategies for relevant researchers as well as practical applications, this paper attempts to provide the literature investigation and methods analysis of deep learning, enforcement learning and transfer learning in wind speed and wind power forecasting modeling. Usually, wind speed and wind power forecasting around a wind farm requires the calculation of the next moment of the definite state, which is usually achieved based on the state of the atmosphere that encompasses nearby atmospheric pressure, temperature, roughness, and obstacles. As an effective method of high-dimensional feature extraction, deep neural network can theoretically deal with arbitrary nonlinear transformation through proper structural design, such as adding noise to outputs, evolutionary learning used to optimize hidden layer weights, optimize the objective function so as to save information that can improve the output accuracy while filter out the irrelevant or less affected information for forecasting. The establishment of high-precision wind speed and wind power forecasting models is always a challenge due to the randomness, instantaneity and seasonal characteristics

An advanced short-term wind power forecasting framework based on the optimized deep neural network models

With the continued growth of wind power penetration into conventional power grid systems, wind power forecasting plays an increasingly competitive role in organizing and deploying electrical and energy systems. The wind power time series, though, often present non-linear and non-stationary characteristics, allowing them quite challenging to estimate precisely. The aim of this paper is in proposing a novel hybrid model named Evol-CNN in order to predict the short-term wind power at 10-min interval up to 3-hr based on deep convolutional neural network (CNN) and evolutionary search optimizer. Specifically, we develop an improved version of Grey Wolf Optimization (GWO) algorithm by incorporating two effective modifications in its original structure. The proposed GWO algorithm is more effective than the original version due to performing in a faster way and the ability to escape from local optima. The proposed GWO algorithm is utilized to find the optimal values of hyperparameters for deep CNN model. Moreover, the optimal CNN model is employed to predict wind power time series. The main advantage of the proposed Evol-CNN model is to enhance the capability of time series forecasting models in obtaining more accurate predictions. Several forecasting benchmarks are compared with the Evol-CNN model to address its effectiveness. The simulation results indicate that the Evol-CNN has a significant advantage over the competitive benchmarks and also, has the minimum error regarding of 10-min, 1-hr and 3-hr ahead forecasting.© 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed

A unified multi-step wind speed forecasting framework based on numerical weather prediction grids and wind farm monitoring data

Wind speed forecasting is the basis of wind farm operation, which provides a reference for the future operation status evaluation of wind farms. For the wind speed forecast of wind turbines in the whole wind farm, a strategy combining unified forecast and single site error correction is proposed in this paper. The unified forecast framework is composed of a unified forecast model and multiple single site error correction models, which combines the forecasted grids of numerical weather prediction (NWP) with the monitoring data of wind farms. The proposed unified forecast model is called spatiotemporal conversion deep predictive network (STC-DPN), which is composed of temporal convolution network (TCN) and 2D convolution long short-term memory network (ConvLSTM). Firstly, the NWP forecasted grids are interpolated to the fan location, and the sequence matrix is composed of the NWP data and the monitored data of each wind turbine according to the time series, which is entered into the TCN network for time sequence feature extraction. Then, the output of the TCN network is converted into a regular spatio-temporal data matrix, which is entered into the ConvLSTM network for joint learning of spatio-temporal features to obtain the wind speed sequence forecasted in the whole wind farm. Finally, an independent TCN-LSTM error correction model is added for each site. Variational modal decomposition (VMD) is used to process data series, and different processing methods are adopted in unified forecast and single site error correction. In the 96 steps forecast test of a wind farm from Jining City, China, the proposed method is superior to several baseline methods and has important practical application value

Wind speed prediction performance based on modal decomposition method

As wind energy and other renewable energy sources are valued by various countries, it is very important to estimate and predict the wind energy level. The accuracy of wind energy prediction mainly depends on the accuracy of wind speed prediction. Therefore, to seek ways of improvement the accuracy of wind speed prediction has become the most important issue. In this paper, three different decomposition methods and commonly used wind speed prediction methods are used to compose the corresponding combined models, and to study which combined prediction model has higher accuracy. According to data research conducted by the National Meteorological Science Center, experiments show that the prediction accuracy of the combined prediction model using the Variational mode decomposition (VMD) method is higher than that of the combined prediction model using empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD)

Big Data Analysis application in the renewable energy market: wind power

Entre as enerxías renovables, a enerxía eólica e unha das tecnoloxías mundiais de rápido crecemento. Non obstante, esta incerteza debería minimizarse para programar e xestionar mellor os activos de xeración tradicionais para compensar a falta de electricidade nas redes electricas. A aparición de técnicas baseadas en datos ou aprendizaxe automática deu a capacidade de proporcionar predicións espaciais e temporais de alta resolución da velocidade e potencia do vento. Neste traballo desenvólvense tres modelos diferentes de ANN, abordando tres grandes problemas na predición de series de datos con esta técnica: garantía de calidade de datos e imputación de datos non válidos, asignación de hiperparámetros e selección de funcións. Os modelos desenvolvidos baséanse en técnicas de agrupación, optimización e procesamento de sinais para proporcionar predicións de velocidade e potencia do vento a curto e medio prazo (de minutos a horas)

State-of-the-Art Using Bibliometric Analysis of Wind-Speed and -Power Forecasting Methods Applied in Power Systems

The integration of wind energy into power systems has intensified as a result of the urgency for global energy transition. This requires more accurate forecasting techniques that can capture the variability of the wind resource to achieve better operative performance of power systems. This paper presents an exhaustive review of the state-of-the-art of wind-speed and -power forecasting models for wind turbines located in different segments of power systems, i.e., in large wind farms, distributed generation, microgrids, and micro-wind turbines installed in residences and buildings. This review covers forecasting models based on statistical and physical, artificial intelligence, and hybrid methods, with deterministic or probabilistic approaches. The literature review is carried out through a bibliometric analysis using VOSviewer and Pajek software. A discussion of the results is carried out, taking as the main approach the forecast time horizon of the models to identify their applications. The trends indicate a predominance of hybrid forecast models for the analysis of power systems, especially for those with high penetration of wind power. Finally, it is determined that most of the papers analyzed belong to the very short-term horizon, which indicates that the interest of researchers is in this time horizon

Energy Management of Prosumer Communities

The penetration of distributed generation, energy storages and smart loads has resulted in the emergence of prosumers: entities capable of adjusting their electricity production and consumption in order to meet environmental goals and to participate profitably in the available electricity markets. Significant untapped potential remains in the exploitation and coordination of small and medium-sized distributed energy resources. However, such resources usually have a primary purpose, which imposes constraints on the exploitation of the resource; for example, the primary purpose of an electric vehicle battery is for driving, so the battery could be used as temporary storage for excess photovoltaic energy only if the vehicle is available for driving when the owner expects it to be. The aggregation of several distributed energy resources is a solution for coping with the unavailability of one resource. Solutions are needed for managing the electricity production and consumption characteristics of diverse distributed energy resources in order to obtain prosumers with more generic capabilities and services for electricity production, storage, and consumption. This collection of articles studies such prosumers and the emergence of prosumer communities. Demand response-capable smart loads, battery storages and photovoltaic generation resources are forecasted and optimized to ensure energy-efficient and, in some cases, profitable operation of the resources

Wind Energy Harvesting and Conversion Systems: A Technical Review

Wind energy harvesting for electricity generation has a significant role in overcoming the challenges involved with climate change and the energy resource implications involved with population growth and political unrest. Indeed, there has been significant growth in wind energy capacity worldwide with turbine capacity growing significantly over the last two decades. This confidence is echoed in the wind power market and global wind energy statistics. However, wind energy capture and utilisation has always been challenging. Appreciation of the wind as a resource makes for difficulties in modelling and the sensitivities of how the wind resource maps to energy production results in an energy harvesting opportunity. An opportunity that is dependent on different system parameters, namely the wind as a resource, technology and system synergies in realizing an optimal wind energy harvest. This paper presents a thorough review of the state of the art concerning the realization of optimal wind energy harvesting and utilisation. The wind energy resource and, more specifically, the influence of wind speed and wind energy resource forecasting are considered in conjunction with technological considerations and how system optimization can realise more effective operational efficiencies. Moreover, non-technological issues affecting wind energy harvesting are also considered. These include standards and regulatory implications with higher levels of grid integration and higher system non-synchronous penetration (SNSP). The review concludes that hybrid forecasting techniques enable a more accurate and predictable resource appreciation and that a hybrid power system that employs a multi-objective optimization approach is most suitable in achieving an optimal configuration for maximum energy harvesting

Development of Deep Learning Hybrid Models for Hydrological Predictions

The Abstract is currently unavailable, due to the thesis being under Embargo

Solar Power System Plaing & Design

Photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) systems for the conversion of solar energy into electricity are technologically robust, scalable, and geographically dispersed, and they possess enormous potential as sustainable energy sources. Systematic planning and design considering various factors and constraints are necessary for the successful deployment of PV and CSP systems. This book on solar power system planning and design includes 14 publications from esteemed research groups worldwide. The research and review papers in this Special Issue fall within the following broad categories: resource assessments, site evaluations, system design, performance assessments, and feasibility studies