PHURIE : hurricane intensity estimation from infrared satellite imagery using machine learning

Automated prediction of hurricane intensity from satellite infrared imagery is a challenging problem with implications in weather forecasting and disaster planning. In this work, a novel machine learning-based method for estimation of intensity or maximum sustained wind speed of tropical cyclones over their life cycle is presented. The approach is based on a support vector regression model over novel statistical features of infrared images of a hurricane. Specifically, the features characterize the degree of uniformity in various temperature bands of a hurricane. Performance of several machine learning methods such as ordinary least squares regression, backpropagation neural networks and XGBoost regression has been compared using these features under different experimental setups for the task. Kernelized support vector regression resulted in the lowest prediction error between true and predicted hurricane intensities (approximately 10 knots or 18.5 km/h), which is better than previously proposed techniques and comparable to SATCON consensus. The performance of the proposed scheme has also been analyzed with respect to errors in annotation of center of the hurricane and aircraft reconnaissance data. The source code and webserver implementation of the proposed method called PHURIE (PIEAS HURricane Intensity Estimator) is available at the URL: http://faculty.pieas.edu.pk/fayyaz/software.html#PHURIE

CNN Profiler on Polar Coordinate Images for Tropical Cyclone Structure Analysis

Convolutional neural networks (CNN) have achieved great success in analyzing tropical cyclones (TC) with satellite images in several tasks, such as TC intensity estimation. In contrast, TC structure, which is conventionally described by a few parameters estimated subjectively by meteorology specialists, is still hard to be profiled objectively and routinely. This study applies CNN on satellite images to create the entire TC structure profiles, covering all the structural parameters. By utilizing the meteorological domain knowledge to construct TC wind profiles based on historical structure parameters, we provide valuable labels for training in our newly released benchmark dataset. With such a dataset, we hope to attract more attention to this crucial issue among data scientists. Meanwhile, a baseline is established with a specialized convolutional model operating on polar-coordinates. We discovered that it is more feasible and physically reasonable to extract structural information on polar-coordinates, instead of Cartesian coordinates, according to a TC's rotational and spiral natures. Experimental results on the released benchmark dataset verified the robustness of the proposed model and demonstrated the potential for applying deep learning techniques for this barely developed yet important topic.Comment: Submitted to AAAI202

Extreme flood-driven fluvial bank erosion and sediment loads: direct process measurements using integrated Mobile Laser Scanning (MLS) and hydro-acoustic techniques: Direct measurement of flood-driven erosion using MLS and MBES

Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. This methods paper details the first attempt at monitoring bank erosion, flow and suspended sediment at a site during flooding on the Mekong River induced by the passage of tropical cyclones. We deployed integrated mobile laser scanning (MLS) and multibeam echo sounding (MBES), alongside acoustic Doppler current profiling (aDcp), to directly measure changes in river bank and bed at high (~0.05 m) spatial resolution, in conjunction with measurements of flow and suspended sediment dynamics. We outline the methodological steps used to collect and process this complex point cloud data, and detail the procedures used to process and calibrate the aDcp flow and sediment flux data. A comparison with conventional remote sensing methods of estimating bank erosion, using aerial images and Landsat imagery, reveals that traditional techniques are error prone at the high temporal resolutions required to quantify the patterns and volumes of bank erosion induced by the passage of individual flood events. Our analysis reveals the importance of cyclone-driven flood events in causing high rates of erosion and suspended sediment transport, with a c. twofold increase in bank erosion volumes and a fourfold increase in suspended sediment volumes in the cyclone-affected wet season. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Tropical Cyclone Center Determination Algorithm by Texture and Gradient of Infrared Satellite Image

A novel algorithm for tropical cyclone (TC) center determination is presented by using texture and gradient of infrared satellite image from geostationary satellite. Except those latter disappearing TC satellite images that are little valuable to a TC center determination, generally other periods of TC, all have an inner core. And the centers are generally determined in the inner core. Based on this, an efficient TC center determination algorithm is designed. First, the inner core of a TC is obtained. Then, according to the texture and gradient information of the inner core, the center location of the TC is determined. The effectiveness of the proposed TC center determination algorithm is verified by using Chinese FY-2C stationary infrared satellite image. And the location result is compared with that of the “tropical cyclone yearbook,” which was compiled by Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm can provide a new technique that can automatically determine the center location for a TC based on infrared satellite image

A Study of Types of Sensors used in Remote Sensing

Of late, the science of Remote Sensing has been gaining a lot of interest and attention due to its wide variety of applications. Remotely sensed data can be used in various fields such as medicine, agriculture, engineering, weather forecasting, military tactics, disaster management etc. only to name a few. This article presents a study of the two categories of sensors namely optical and microwave which are used for remotely sensing the occurrence of disasters such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, avalanches, tropical cyclones and suspicious movements. The remotely sensed data acquired either through satellites or through ground based- synthetic aperture radar systems could be used to avert or mitigate a disaster or to perform a post-disaster analysis

Globally Gridded Satellite (GridSat) Observations for Climate Studies

Geostationary satellites have provided routine, high temporal resolution Earth observations since the 1970s. Despite the long period of record, use of these data in climate studies has been limited for numerous reasons, among them: there is no central archive of geostationary data for all international satellites, full temporal and spatial resolution data are voluminous, and diverse calibration and navigation formats encumber the uniform processing needed for multi-satellite climate studies. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project set the stage for overcoming these issues by archiving a subset of the full resolution geostationary data at approx.10 km resolution at 3 hourly intervals since 1983. Recent efforts at NOAA s National Climatic Data Center to provide convenient access to these data include remapping the data to a standard map projection, recalibrating the data to optimize temporal homogeneity, extending the record of observations back to 1980, and reformatting the data for broad public distribution. The Gridded Satellite (GridSat) dataset includes observations from the visible, infrared window, and infrared water vapor channels. Data are stored in the netCDF format using standards that permit a wide variety of tools and libraries to quickly and easily process the data. A novel data layering approach, together with appropriate satellite and file metadata, allows users to access GridSat data at varying levels of complexity based on their needs. The result is a climate data record already in use by the meteorological community. Examples include reanalysis of tropical cyclones, studies of global precipitation, and detection and tracking of the intertropical convergence zone

A Novel Approach For Identifying Cloud Clusters Developing Into Tropical Cyclones

Providing advance notice of rare events, such as a cloud cluster (CC) developing into a tropical cyclone (TC), is of great importance. Having advance warning of such rare events possibly can help avoid or reduce the risk of damages and allow emergency responders and the affected community enough time to respond appropriately. Considering this, forecasters need better data mining and data driven techniques to identify developing CCs. Prior studies have attempted to predict the formation of TCs using numerical weather prediction models as well as satellite and radar data. However, refined observational data and forecasting techniques are not always available or accurate in areas such as the North Atlantic Ocean where data are sparse. Consequently, this research provides the predictive features that contribute to a CC developing into a TC using only global gridded satellite data that are readily available. This was accomplished by identifying and tracking CCs objectively where no expert knowledge is required to investigate the predictive features of developing CCs. We have applied the proposed oversampling technique named the Selective Clustering based Oversampling Technique (SCOT) to reduce the bias of the non-developing CCs when using standard classifiers. Our approach identifies twelve predictive features for developing CCs and demonstrates predictive skill for 0 - 48 hours prior to development. The results confirm that the proposed technique can satisfactorily identify developing CCs for each of the nine forecasts using standard classifiers such as Classification and Regression Trees (CART), neural networks, and support vector machines (SVM) and ten-fold cross validation. These results are based on the geometric mean values and are further verified using seven case studies such as Hurricane Katrina (2005). These results demonstrate that our proposed approach could potentially improve weather prediction and provide advance notice of a developing CC by using solely gridded satellite data

Structural Forecasting for Short-term Tropical Cyclone Intensity Guidance

Because geostationary satellite (Geo) imagery provides a high temporal resolution window into tropical cyclone (TC) behavior, we investigate the viability of its application to short-term probabilistic forecasts of TC convective structure to subsequently predict TC intensity. Here, we present a prototype model which is trained solely on two inputs: Geo infrared imagery leading up to the synoptic time of interest and intensity estimates up to 6 hours prior to that time. To estimate future TC structure, we compute cloud-top temperature radial profiles from infrared imagery and then simulate the evolution of an ensemble of those profiles over the subsequent 12 hours by applying a Deep Autoregressive Generative Model (PixelSNAIL). To forecast TC intensities at hours 6 and 12, we input operational intensity estimates up to the current time (0 h) and simulated future radial profiles up to +12 h into a ``nowcasting'' convolutional neural network. We limit our inputs to demonstrate the viability of our approach and to enable quantification of value added by the observed and simulated future radial profiles beyond operational intensity estimates alone. Our prototype model achieves a marginally higher error than the National Hurricane Center's official forecasts despite excluding environmental factors, such as vertical wind shear and sea surface temperature. We also demonstrate that it is possible to reasonably predict short-term evolution of TC convective structure via radial profiles from Geo infrared imagery, resulting in interpretable structural forecasts that may be valuable for TC operational guidance