Multiobjective Evolutionary Optimization of Type-2 Fuzzy Rule-Based Systems for Financial Data Classification

Classification techniques are becoming essential in the financial world for reducing risks and possible disasters. Managers are interested in not only high accuracy, but in interpretability and transparency as well. It is widely accepted now that the comprehension of how inputs and outputs are related to each other is crucial for taking operative and strategic decisions. Furthermore, inputs are often affected by contextual factors and characterized by a high level of uncertainty. In addition, financial data are usually highly skewed toward the majority class. With the aim of achieving high accuracies, preserving the interpretability, and managing uncertain and unbalanced data, this paper presents a novel method to deal with financial data classification by adopting type-2 fuzzy rule-based classifiers (FRBCs) generated from data by a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA). The classifiers employ an approach, denoted as scaled dominance, for defining rule weights in such a way to help minority classes to be correctly classified. In particular, we have extended PAES-RCS, an MOEA-based approach to learn concurrently the rule and data bases of FRBCs, for managing both interval type-2 fuzzy sets and unbalanced datasets. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that generates type-2 FRBCs by concurrently maximizing accuracy and minimizing the number of rules and the rule length with the objective of producing interpretable models of real-world skewed and incomplete financial datasets. The rule bases are generated by exploiting a rule and condition selection (RCS) approach, which selects a reduced number of rules from a heuristically generated rule base and a reduced number of conditions for each selected rule during the evolutionary process. The weight associated with each rule is scaled by the scaled dominance approach on the fuzzy frequency of the output class, in order to give a higher weight to the minority class. As regards the data base learning, the membership function parameters of the interval type-2 fuzzy sets used in the rules are learned concurrently to the application of RCS. Unbalanced datasets are managed by using, in addition to complexity, selectivity and specificity as objectives of the MOEA rather than only the classification rate. We tested our approach, named IT2-PAES-RCS, on 11 financial datasets and compared our results with the ones obtained by the original PAES-RCS with three objectives and with and without scaled dominance, the FRBCs, fuzzy association rule-based classification model for high-dimensional dataset (FARC-HD) and fuzzy unordered rules induction algorithm (FURIA), the classical C4.5 decision tree algorithm, and its cost-sensitive version. Using nonparametric statistical tests, we will show that IT2-PAES-RCS generates FRBCs with, on average, accuracy statistically comparable with and complexity lower than the ones generated by the two versions of the original PAES-RCS. Further, the FRBCs generated by FARC-HD and FURIA and the decision trees computed by C4.5 and its cost-sensitive version, despite the highest complexity, result to be less accurate than the FRBCs generated by IT2-PAES-RCS. Finally, we will highlight how these FRBCs are easily interpretable by showing and discussing one of them

Fuzzy logic modeling of Pb (II) sorption onto mesoporous NiO/ZnCl2-Rosa Canina-L seeds activated carbon nanocomposite prepared by ultrasound-assisted co-precipitation technique

In this study, NiO/Rosa Canina-L seeds activated carbon nanocomposite (NiO/ACNC) was prepared by adding dropwise NaOH solution (2 mol/L) to raise the suspension pH to around 9 at room temperature under ultrasonic irradiation (200 W) as an efficient method and characterized by FE-SEM, FTIR and N2 adsorption-desorption isotherm. The effect of different parameters such as contact time (0–120 min), initial metal ion concentration (25–200 mg/L), temperature (298, 318 and 333 K), amount of adsorbent (0.002–0.007 g) and the solution's initial pH (1–7) on the adsorption of Pb (II) was investigated in batch-scale experiments. The equilibrium data were well fitted by Langmuir model type 1 (R2 > 0.99). The maximum monolayer adsorption capacity (qm) of NiO/ACNC was 1428.57 mg/L. Thermodynamic parameters (¿G°, ¿H° and ¿S°) were also calculated. The results showed that the adsorption of Pb (II) onto NiO/ACNC was feasible, spontaneous and exothermic under studied conditions. In addition, a fuzzy-logic-based model including multiple inputs and one output was developed to predict the removal efficiency of Pb (II) from aqueous solution. Four input variables including pH, contact time (min), dosage (g) and initial concentration of Pb (II) were fuzzified using an artificial intelligence-based approach. The fuzzy subsets consisted of triangular membership functions with eight levels and a total of 26 rules in the IF-THEN approach which was implemented on a Mamdani-type of fuzzy inference system. Fuzzy data exhibited small deviation with satisfactory coefficient of determination (R2 > 0.98) that clearly proved very good performance of fuzzy-logic-based model in prediction of removal efficiency of Pb (II). It was confirmed that NiO/ACNC had a great potential as a novel adsorbent to remove Pb (II) from aqueous solution.Postprint (author's final draft

A Survey on the Project in title

In this paper we present a survey of work that has been done in the project ldquo;Unsupervised Adaptive P300 BCI in the framework of chaotic theory and stochastic theoryrdquo;we summarised the following papers, (Mohammed J Alhaddad amp; 2011), (Mohammed J. Alhaddad amp; Kamel M, 2012), (Mohammed J Alhaddad, Kamel, amp; Al-Otaibi, 2013), (Mohammed J Alhaddad, Kamel, amp; Bakheet, 2013), (Mohammed J Alhaddad, Kamel, amp; Al-Otaibi, 2014), (Mohammed J Alhaddad, Kamel, amp; Bakheet, 2014), (Mohammed J Alhaddad, Kamel, amp; Kadah, 2014), (Mohammed J Alhaddad, Kamel, Makary, Hargas, amp; Kadah, 2014), (Mohammed J Alhaddad, Mohammed, Kamel, amp; Hagras, 2015).We developed a new pre-processing method for denoising P300-based brain-computer interface data that allows better performance with lower number of channels and blocks. The new denoising technique is based on a modified version of the spectral subtraction denoising and works on each temporal signal channel independently thus offering seamless integration with existing pre-processing and allowing low channel counts to be used. We also developed a novel approach for brain-computer interface data that requires no prior training. The proposed approach is based on interval type-2 fuzzy logic based classifier which is able to handle the usersrsquo; uncertainties to produce better prediction accuracies than other competing classifiers such as BLDA or RFLDA. In addition, the generated type-2 fuzzy classifier is learnt from data via genetic algorithms to produce a small number of rules with a rule length of only one antecedent to maximize the transparency and interpretability for the normal clinician. We also employ a feature selection system based on an ensemble neural networks recursive feature selection which is able to find the effective time instances within the effective sensors in relation to given P300 event. The basic principle of this new class of techniques is that the trial with true activation signal within each block has to be different from the rest of the trials within that block. Hence, a measure that is sensitive to this dissimilarity can be used to make a decision based on a single block without any prior training. The new methods were verified using various experiments which were performed on standard data sets and using real-data sets obtained from real subjects experiments performed in the BCI lab in King Abdulaziz University. The results were compared to the classification results of the same data using previous methods. Enhanced performance in different experiments as quantitatively assessed using classification block accuracy as well as bit rate estimates was confirmed. It will be shown that the produced type-2 fuzzy logic based classifier will learn simple rules which are easy to understand explaining the events in question. In addition, the produced type-2 fuzzy logic classifier will be able to give better accuracies when compared to BLDA or RFLDA on various human subjects on the standard and real-world data sets

A Fuzzy-Logic Approach to Dynamic Bayesian Severity Level Classification of Driver Distraction Using Image Recognition

open access articleDetecting and classifying driver distractions is crucial in the prevention of road accidents. These distractions impact both driver behavior and vehicle dynamics. Knowing the degree of driver distraction can aid in accident prevention techniques, including transitioning of control to a level 4 semi- autonomous vehicle, when a high distraction severity level is reached. Thus, enhancement of Advanced Driving Assistance Systems (ADAS) is a critical component in the safety of vehicle drivers and other road users. In this paper, a new methodology is introduced, using an expert knowledge rule system to predict the severity of distraction in a contiguous set of video frames using the Naturalistic Driving American University of Cairo (AUC) Distraction Dataset. A multi-class distraction system comprises the face orientation, drivers’ activities, hands and previous driver distraction, a severity classification model is developed as a discrete dynamic Bayesian (DDB). Furthermore, a Mamdani-based fuzzy system was implemented to detect multi- class of distractions into a severity level of safe, careless or dangerous driving. Thus, if a high level of severity is reached the semi-autonomous vehicle will take control. The result further shows that some instances of driver’s distraction may quickly transition from a careless to dangerous driving in a multi-class distraction context

Enhancement of dronogram aid to visual interpretation of target objects via intuitionistic fuzzy hesitant sets

In this paper, we address the hesitant information in enhancement task often caused by differences in image contrast. Enhancement approaches generally use certain filters which generate artifacts or are unable to recover all the objects details in images. Typically, the contrast of an image quantifies a unique ratio between the amounts of black and white through a single pixel. However, contrast is better represented by a group of pix- els. We have proposed a novel image enhancement scheme based on intuitionistic hesi- tant fuzzy sets (IHFSs) for drone images (dronogram) to facilitate better interpretations of target objects. First, a given dronogram is divided into foreground and background areas based on an estimated threshold from which the proposed model measures the amount of black/white intensity levels. Next, we fuzzify both of them and determine the hesitant score indicated by the distance between the two areas for each point in the fuzzy plane. Finally, a hyperbolic operator is adopted for each membership grade to improve the pho- tographic quality leading to enhanced results via defuzzification. The proposed method is tested on a large drone image database. Results demonstrate better contrast enhancement, improved visual quality, and better recognition compared to the state-of-the-art methods.Web of Science500866

A novel technique for load frequency control of multi-area power systems

In this paper, an adaptive type-2 fuzzy controller is proposed to control the load frequency of a two-area power system based on descending gradient training and error back-propagation. The dynamics of the system are completely uncertain. The multilayer perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network structure is used to extract Jacobian and estimate the system model, and then, the estimated model is applied to the controller, online. A proportional–derivative (PD) controller is added to the type-2 fuzzy controller, which increases the stability and robustness of the system against disturbances. The adaptation, being real-time and independency of the system parameters are new features of the proposed controller. Carrying out simulations on New England 39-bus power system, the performance of the proposed controller is compared with the conventional PI, PID and internal model control based on PID (IMC-PID) controllers. Simulation results indicate that our proposed controller method outperforms the conventional controllers in terms of transient response and stability

Evolving Ensemble Fuzzy Classifier

The concept of ensemble learning offers a promising avenue in learning from data streams under complex environments because it addresses the bias and variance dilemma better than its single model counterpart and features a reconfigurable structure, which is well suited to the given context. While various extensions of ensemble learning for mining non-stationary data streams can be found in the literature, most of them are crafted under a static base classifier and revisits preceding samples in the sliding window for a retraining step. This feature causes computationally prohibitive complexity and is not flexible enough to cope with rapidly changing environments. Their complexities are often demanding because it involves a large collection of offline classifiers due to the absence of structural complexities reduction mechanisms and lack of an online feature selection mechanism. A novel evolving ensemble classifier, namely Parsimonious Ensemble pENsemble, is proposed in this paper. pENsemble differs from existing architectures in the fact that it is built upon an evolving classifier from data streams, termed Parsimonious Classifier pClass. pENsemble is equipped by an ensemble pruning mechanism, which estimates a localized generalization error of a base classifier. A dynamic online feature selection scenario is integrated into the pENsemble. This method allows for dynamic selection and deselection of input features on the fly. pENsemble adopts a dynamic ensemble structure to output a final classification decision where it features a novel drift detection scenario to grow the ensemble structure. The efficacy of the pENsemble has been numerically demonstrated through rigorous numerical studies with dynamic and evolving data streams where it delivers the most encouraging performance in attaining a tradeoff between accuracy and complexity.Comment: this paper has been published by IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy System