Prognostics of Lithium-Ion Batteries Based on Wavelet Denoising and DE-RVM

Lithium-ion batteries are widely used in many electronic systems. Therefore, it is significantly important to estimate the lithium-ion battery’s remaining useful life (RUL), yet very difficult. One important reason is that the measured battery capacity data are often subject to the different levels of noise pollution. In this paper, a novel battery capacity prognostics approach is presented to estimate the RUL of lithium-ion batteries. Wavelet denoising is performed with different thresholds in order to weaken the strong noise and remove the weak noise. Relevance vector machine (RVM) improved by differential evolution (DE) algorithm is utilized to estimate the battery RUL based on the denoised data. An experiment including battery 5 capacity prognostics case and battery 18 capacity prognostics case is conducted and validated that the proposed approach can predict the trend of battery capacity trajectory closely and estimate the battery RUL accurately

HEALTH ESTIMATION AND REMAINING USEFUL LIFE PREDICTION OF ELECTRONIC CIRCUIT WITH A PARAMETRIC FAULT

Degradation of electronic components is typically accompanied by a deviation in their electrical parameters from their initial values. Such parametric drifts in turn will cause degradation in performance of the circuit they are part of, eventually leading to function failure due to parametric faults. The existing approaches for predicting failures resulting from electronic component parametric faults emphasize identifying monotonically deviating parameters and modeling their progression over time. However, in practical applications where the components are integrated into a complex electronic circuit assembly, product or system, it is generally not feasible to monitor component-level parameters. To address this problem, a prognostics method that exploits features extracted from responses of circuit-comprising components exhibiting parametric faults is developed in this dissertation. The developed prognostic method constitutes a circuit health estimation step followed by a degradation modeling and remaining useful life (RUL) prediction step. First, the circuit health estimation method was developed using a kernel-based machine learning technique that exploits features that are extracted from responses of circuit-comprising components exhibiting parametric faults, instead of the component-level parameters. The performance of kernel learning technique depends on the automatic adaptation of hyperparameters (i.e., regularization and kernel parameters) to the learning features. Thus, to achieve high accuracy in health estimation the developed method also includes an optimization method that employs a penalized likelihood function along with a stochastic filtering technique for automatic adaptation of hyperparameters. Second, the prediction of circuit’s RUL is realized by a model-based filtering method that relies on a first principles-based model and a stochastic filtering technique. The first principles-based model describes the degradation in circuit health with progression of parametric fault in a circuit component. The stochastic filtering technique on the other hand is used to first solve a joint ‘circuit health state—parametric fault’ estimation problem, followed by prediction problem in which the estimated ‘circuit health state—parametric fault’ is propagated forward in time to predict RUL. Evaluations of the data from simulation experiments on a benchmark Sallen–Key filter circuit and a DC–DC converter system demonstrate the ability of the developed prognostic method to estimate circuit health and predict RUL without having to monitor the individual component parameters

Prognostics and health management of light emitting diodes

Prognostics is an engineering process of diagnosing, predicting the remaining useful life and estimating the reliability of systems and products. Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) has emerged in the last decade as one of the most efficient approaches in failure prevention, reliability estimation and remaining useful life predictions of various engineering systems and products. Light Emitting Diodes (LEDs) are optoelectronic micro-devices that are now replacing traditional incandescent and fluorescent lighting, as they have many advantages including higher reliability, greater energy efficiency, long life time and faster switching speed. Even though LEDs have high reliability and long life time, manufacturers and lighting systems designers still need to assess the reliability of LED lighting systems and the failures in the LED. This research provides both experimental and theoretical results that demonstrate the use of prognostics and health monitoring techniques for high power LEDs subjected to harsh operating conditions. Data driven, model driven and fusion prognostics approaches are developed to monitor and identify LED failures, based on the requirement for the light output power. The approaches adopted in this work are validated and can be used to assess the life of an LED lighting system after their deployment based on the power of the light output emitted. The data driven techniques are only based on monitoring selected operational and performance indicators using sensors whereas the model driven technique is based on sensor data as well as on a developed empirical model. Fusion approach is also developed using the data driven and the model driven approaches to the LED. Real-time implementation of developed approaches are also investigated and discussed

Advanced methodologies for reliability-based design optimization and structural health prognostics

Failures of engineered systems can lead to significant economic and societal losses. To minimize the losses, reliability must be ensured throughout the system's lifecycle in the presence of manufacturing variability and uncertain operational conditions. Many reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) techniques have been developed to ensure high reliability of engineered system design under manufacturing variability. Schedule-based maintenance, although expensive, has been a popular method to maintain highly reliable engineered systems under uncertain operational conditions. However, so far there is no cost-effective and systematic approach to ensure high reliability of engineered systems throughout their lifecycles while accounting for both the manufacturing variability and uncertain operational conditions. Inspired by an intrinsic ability of systems in ecology, economics, and other fields that is able to proactively adjust their functioning to avoid potential system failures, this dissertation attempts to adaptively manage engineered system reliability during its lifecycle by advancing two essential and co-related research areas: system RBDO and prognostics and health management (PHM). System RBDO ensures high reliability of an engineered system in the early design stage, whereas capitalizing on PHM technology enables the system to proactively avoid failures in its operation stage. Extensive literature reviews in these areas have identified four key research issues: (1) how system failure modes and their interactions can be analyzed in a statistical sense; (2) how limited data for input manufacturing variability can be used for RBDO; (3) how sensor networks can be designed to effectively monitor system health degradation under highly uncertain operational conditions; and (4) how accurate and timely remaining useful lives of systems can be predicted under highly uncertain operational conditions. To properly address these key research issues, this dissertation lays out four research thrusts in the following chapters: Chapter 3 - Complementary Intersection Method for System Reliability Analysis, Chapter 4 - Bayesian Approach to RBDO, Chapter 5 - Sensing Function Design for Structural Health Prognostics, and Chapter 6 - A Generic Framework for Structural Health Prognostics. Multiple engineering case studies are presented to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed RBDO and PHM techniques for ensuring and improving the reliability of engineered systems within their lifecycles

ADVANCES IN SYSTEM RELIABILITY-BASED DESIGN AND PROGNOSTICS AND HEALTH MANAGEMENT (PHM) FOR SYSTEM RESILIENCE ANALYSIS AND DESIGN

Failures of engineered systems can lead to significant economic and societal losses. Despite tremendous efforts (e.g., $200 billion annually) denoted to reliability and maintenance, unexpected catastrophic failures still occurs. To minimize the losses, reliability of engineered systems must be ensured throughout their life-cycle amidst uncertain operational condition and manufacturing variability. In most engineered systems, the required system reliability level under adverse events is achieved by adding system redundancies and/or conducting system reliability-based design optimization (RBDO). However, a high level of system redundancy increases a system's life-cycle cost (LCC) and system RBDO cannot ensure the system reliability when unexpected loading/environmental conditions are applied and unexpected system failures are developed. In contrast, a new design paradigm, referred to as resilience-driven system design, can ensure highly reliable system designs under any loading/environmental conditions and system failures while considerably reducing systems' LCC. In order to facilitate the development of formal methodologies for this design paradigm, this research aims at advancing two essential and co-related research areas: Research Thrust 1 - system RBDO and Research Thrust 2 - system prognostics and health management (PHM). In Research Thrust 1, reliability analyses under uncertainty will be carried out in both component and system levels against critical failure mechanisms. In Research Thrust 2, highly accurate and robust PHM systems will be designed for engineered systems with a single or multiple time-scale(s). To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed system RBDO and PHM techniques, multiple engineering case studies will be presented and discussed. Following the development of Research Thrusts 1 and 2, Research Thrust 3 - resilience-driven system design will establish a theoretical basis and design framework of engineering resilience in a mathematical and statistical context, where engineering resilience will be formulated in terms of system reliability and restoration and the proposed design framework will be demonstrated with a simplified aircraft control actuator design problem

Fault Diagnosis and Failure Prognostics of Lithium-ion Battery based on Least Squares Support Vector Machine and Memory Particle Filter Framework

123456A novel data driven approach is developed for fault diagnosis and remaining useful life (RUL) prognostics for lithium-ion batteries using Least Square Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM) and Memory-Particle Filter (M-PF). Unlike traditional data-driven models for capacity fault diagnosis and failure prognosis, which require multidimensional physical characteristics, the proposed algorithm uses only two variables: Energy Efficiency (EE), and Work Temperature. The aim of this novel framework is to improve the accuracy of incipient and abrupt faults diagnosis and failure prognosis. First, the LSSVM is used to generate residual signal based on capacity fade trends of the Li-ion batteries. Second, adaptive threshold model is developed based on several factors including input, output model error, disturbance, and drift parameter. The adaptive threshold is used to tackle the shortcoming of a fixed threshold. Third, the M-PF is proposed as the new method for failure prognostic to determine Remaining Useful Life (RUL). The M-PF is based on the assumption of the availability of real-time observation and historical data, where the historical failure data can be used instead of the physical failure model within the particle filter. The feasibility of the framework is validated using Li-ion battery prognostic data obtained from the National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA) Ames Prognostic Center of Excellence (PCoE). The experimental results show the following: (1) fewer data dimensions for the input data are required compared to traditional empirical models; (2) the proposed diagnostic approach provides an effective way of diagnosing Li-ion battery fault; (3) the proposed prognostic approach can predict the RUL of Li-ion batteries with small error, and has high prediction accuracy; and, (4) the proposed prognostic approach shows that historical failure data can be used instead of a physical failure model in the particle filter

The Use of Advanced Soft Computing for Machinery Condition Monitoring

The demand for cost effective, reliable and safe machinery operation requires accurate fault detection and classification. These issues are of paramount importance as potential failures of rotating and reciprocating machinery can be managed properly and avoided in some cases. Various methods have been applied to tackle these issues, but the accuracy of those methods is variable and leaves scope for improvement. This research proposes appropriate methods for fault detection and diagnosis. The main consideration of this study is use Artificial Intelligence (AI) and related mathematics approaches to build a condition monitoring (CM) system that has incremental learning capabilities to select effective diagnostic features for the fault diagnosis of a reciprocating compressor (RC). The investigation involved a series of experiments conducted on a two-stage RC at baseline condition and then with faults introduced into the intercooler, drive belt and 2nd stage discharge and suction valve respectively. In addition to this, three combined faults: discharge valve leakage combined with intercooler leakage, suction valve leakage combined with intercooler leakage and discharge valve leakage combined with suction valve leakage were created and simulated to test the model. The vibration data was collected from the experimental RC and processed through pre-processing stage, features extraction, features selection before the developed diagnosis and classification model were built. A large number of potential features are calculated from the time domain, the frequency domain and the envelope spectrum. Applying Neural Networks (NNs), Support Vector Machines (SVMs), Relevance Vector Machines (RVMs) which integrate with Genetic Algorithms (GAs), and principle components analysis (PCA) which cooperates with principle components optimisation, to these features, has found that the features from envelope analysis have the most potential for differentiating various common faults in RCs. The practical results for fault detection, diagnosis and classification show that the proposed methods perform very well and accurately and can be used as effective tools for diagnosing reciprocating machinery failure