Asymptotic genealogy of a critical branching process

Consider a continuous-time binary branching process conditioned to have population size n at some time t, and with a chance p for recording each extinct individual in the process. Within the family tree of this process, we consider the smallest subtree containing the genealogy of the extant individuals together with the genealogy of the recorded extinct individuals. We introduce a novel representation of such subtrees in terms of a point-process, and provide asymptotic results on the distribution of this point-process as the number of extant individuals increases. We motivate the study within the scope of a coherent analysis for an a priori model for macroevolution.Comment: 30 page

Crescent Singularities in Crumpled Sheets

We examine the crescent singularity of a developable cone in a setting similar to that studied by Cerda et al [Nature 401, 46 (1999)]. Stretching is localized in a core region near the pushing tip and bending dominates the outer region. Two types of stresses in the outer region are identified and shown to scale differently with the distance to the tip. Energies of the d-cone are estimated and the conditions for the scaling of core region size R_c are discussed. Tests of the pushing force equation and direct geometrical measurements provide numerical evidence that core size scales as R_c ~ h^{1/3} R^{2/3}, where h is the thickness of sheet and R is the supporting container radius, in agreement with the proposition of Cerda et al. We give arguments that this observed scaling law should not represent the asymptotic behavior. Other properties are also studied and tested numerically, consistent with our analysis.Comment: 13 pages with 8 figures, revtex. To appear in PR

Auxiliary field method and analytical solutions of the Schr\"{o}dinger equation with exponential potentials

The auxiliary field method is a new and efficient way to compute approximate analytical eigenenergies and eigenvectors of the Schr\"{o}dinger equation. This method has already been successfully applied to the case of central potentials of power-law and logarithmic forms. In the present work, we show that the Schr\"{o}dinger equation with exponential potentials of the form $-\alpha r^\lambda \exp(-\beta r)$ can also be analytically solved by using the auxiliary field method. Formulae giving the critical heights and the energy levels of these potentials are presented. Special attention is drawn on the Yukawa potential and the pure exponential one

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models. The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.Comment: Revised version. Recommended for publication in Tectonophysic

Bethe Ansatz in the Bernoulli Matching Model of Random Sequence Alignment

For the Bernoulli Matching model of sequence alignment problem we apply the Bethe ansatz technique via an exact mapping to the 5--vertex model on a square lattice. Considering the terrace--like representation of the sequence alignment problem, we reproduce by the Bethe ansatz the results for the averaged length of the Longest Common Subsequence in Bernoulli approximation. In addition, we compute the average number of nucleation centers of the terraces.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figures (some points are clarified