21,676 research outputs found
Sampling-based Approximations with Quantitative Performance for the Probabilistic Reach-Avoid Problem over General Markov Processes
This article deals with stochastic processes endowed with the Markov
(memoryless) property and evolving over general (uncountable) state spaces. The
models further depend on a non-deterministic quantity in the form of a control
input, which can be selected to affect the probabilistic dynamics. We address
the computation of maximal reach-avoid specifications, together with the
synthesis of the corresponding optimal controllers. The reach-avoid
specification deals with assessing the likelihood that any finite-horizon
trajectory of the model enters a given goal set, while avoiding a given set of
undesired states. This article newly provides an approximate computational
scheme for the reach-avoid specification based on the Fitted Value Iteration
algorithm, which hinges on random sample extractions, and gives a-priori
computable formal probabilistic bounds on the error made by the approximation
algorithm: as such, the output of the numerical scheme is quantitatively
assessed and thus meaningful for safety-critical applications. Furthermore, we
provide tighter probabilistic error bounds that are sample-based. The overall
computational scheme is put in relationship with alternative approximation
algorithms in the literature, and finally its performance is practically
assessed over a benchmark case study
"Rotterdam econometrics": publications of the econometric institute 1956-2005
This paper contains a list of all publications over the period 1956-2005, as reported in the Rotterdam Econometric Institute Reprint series during 1957-2005.
Incorporating statistical model error into the calculation of acceptability prices of contingent claims
The determination of acceptability prices of contingent claims requires the
choice of a stochastic model for the underlying asset price dynamics. Given
this model, optimal bid and ask prices can be found by stochastic optimization.
However, the model for the underlying asset price process is typically based on
data and found by a statistical estimation procedure. We define a confidence
set of possible estimated models by a nonparametric neighborhood of a baseline
model. This neighborhood serves as ambiguity set for a multi-stage stochastic
optimization problem under model uncertainty. We obtain distributionally robust
solutions of the acceptability pricing problem and derive the dual problem
formulation. Moreover, we prove a general large deviations result for the
nested distance, which allows to relate the bid and ask prices under model
ambiguity to the quality of the observed data.Comment: 27 pages, 2 figure
Statistical Estimation of Composite Risk Functionals and Risk Optimization Problems
We address the statistical estimation of composite functionals which may be
nonlinear in the probability measure. Our study is motivated by the need to
estimate coherent measures of risk, which become increasingly popular in
finance, insurance, and other areas associated with optimization under
uncertainty and risk. We establish central limit formulae for composite risk
functionals. Furthermore, we discuss the asymptotic behavior of optimization
problems whose objectives are composite risk functionals and we establish a
central limit formula of their optimal values when an estimator of the risk
functional is used. While the mathematical structures accommodate commonly used
coherent measures of risk, they have more general character, which may be of
independent interest
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