43 research outputs found
Bayesian stochastic blockmodeling
This chapter provides a self-contained introduction to the use of Bayesian
inference to extract large-scale modular structures from network data, based on
the stochastic blockmodel (SBM), as well as its degree-corrected and
overlapping generalizations. We focus on nonparametric formulations that allow
their inference in a manner that prevents overfitting, and enables model
selection. We discuss aspects of the choice of priors, in particular how to
avoid underfitting via increased Bayesian hierarchies, and we contrast the task
of sampling network partitions from the posterior distribution with finding the
single point estimate that maximizes it, while describing efficient algorithms
to perform either one. We also show how inferring the SBM can be used to
predict missing and spurious links, and shed light on the fundamental
limitations of the detectability of modular structures in networks.Comment: 44 pages, 16 figures. Code is freely available as part of graph-tool
at https://graph-tool.skewed.de . See also the HOWTO at
https://graph-tool.skewed.de/static/doc/demos/inference/inference.htm
Anomalous Edge Detection in Edge Exchangeable Social Network Models
This paper studies detecting anomalous edges in directed graphs that model
social networks. We exploit edge exchangeability as a criterion for
distinguishing anomalous edges from normal edges. Then we present an anomaly
detector based on conformal prediction theory; this detector has a guaranteed
upper bound for false positive rate. In numerical experiments, we show that the
proposed algorithm achieves superior performance to baseline methods
Sampling and Inference for Beta Neutral-to-the-Left Models of Sparse Networks
Empirical evidence suggests that heavy-tailed degree distributions occurring
in many real networks are well-approximated by power laws with exponents
that may take values either less than and greater than two. Models based on
various forms of exchangeability are able to capture power laws with , and admit tractable inference algorithms; we draw on previous results to
show that cannot be generated by the forms of exchangeability used
in existing random graph models. Preferential attachment models generate power
law exponents greater than two, but have been of limited use as statistical
models due to the inherent difficulty of performing inference in
non-exchangeable models. Motivated by this gap, we design and implement
inference algorithms for a recently proposed class of models that generates
of all possible values. We show that although they are not exchangeable,
these models have probabilistic structure amenable to inference. Our methods
make a large class of previously intractable models useful for statistical
inference.Comment: Accepted for publication in the proceedings of Conference on
Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI) 201
Loan maturity aggregation in interbank lending networks obscures mesoscale structure and economic functions
Since the 2007-2009 financial crisis, substantial academic effort has been dedicated to improving our understanding of interbank lending networks (ILNs). Because of data limitations or by choice, the literature largely lacks multiple loan maturities. We employ a complete interbank loan contract dataset to investigate whether maturity details are informative of the network structure. Applying the layered stochastic block model of Peixoto (2015) and other tools from network science on a time series of bilateral loans with multiple maturity layers in the Russian ILN, we find that collapsing all such layers consistently obscures mesoscale structure. The optimal maturity granularity lies between completely collapsing and completely separating the maturity layers and depends on the development phase of the interbank market, with a more developed market requiring more layers for optimal description. Closer inspection of the inferred maturity bins associated with the optimal maturity granularity reveals specific economic functions, from liquidity intermediation to financing. Collapsing a network with multiple underlying maturity layers or extracting one such layer, common in economic research, is therefore not only an incomplete representation of the ILN's mesoscale structure, but also conceals existing economic functions. This holds important insights and opportunities for theoretical and empirical studies on interbank market functioning, contagion, stability, and on the desirable level of regulatory data disclosure
Modelling Populations of Interaction Networks via Distance Metrics
Network data arises through observation of relational information between a collection of entities. Recent work in the literature has independently considered when (i) one observes a sample of networks, connectome data in neuroscience being a ubiquitous example, and (ii) the units of observation within a network are edges or paths, such as emails between people or a series of page visits to a website by a user, often referred to as interaction network data. The intersection of these two cases, however, is yet to be considered. In this paper, we propose a new Bayesian modelling framework to analyse such data. Given a practitioner-specified distance metric between observations, we define families of models through location and scale parameters, akin to a Gaussian distribution, with subsequent inference of model parameters providing reasoned statistical summaries for this non-standard data structure. To facilitate inference, we propose specialised Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) schemes capable of sampling from doubly-intractable posterior distributions over discrete and multi-dimensional parameter spaces. Through simulation studies we confirm the efficacy of our methodology and inference scheme, whilst its application we illustrate via an example analysis of a location-based social network (LSBN) data set