The new keynesian approach to dynamic general equilibrium modeling: models, methods, and macroeconomic policy evaluation

This chapter aims to provide a hands-on approach to New Keynesian models and their uses for macroeconomic policy analysis. It starts by reviewing the origins of the New Keynesian approach, the key model ingredients and representative models. Building blocks of current-generation dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are discussed in detail. These models address the famous Lucas critique by deriving behavioral equations systematically from the optimizing and forward-looking decision-making of households and firms subject to well-defined constraints. State-of-the-art methods for solving and estimating such models are reviewed and presented in examples. The chapter goes beyond the mere presentation of the most popular benchmark model by providing a framework for model comparison along with a database that includes a wide variety of macroeconomic models. Thus, it offers a convenient approach for comparing new models to available benchmarks and for investigating whether particular policy recommendations are robust to model uncertainty. Such robustness analysis is illustrated by evaluating the performance of simple monetary policy rules across a range of recently-estimated models including some with financial market imperfections and by reviewing recent comparative findings regarding the magnitude of government spending multipliers. The chapter concludes with a discussion of important objectives for on-going and future research using the New Keynesian framework

Is there club convergence in Latin America?

Previous studies of the income convergence hypothesis for Latin American economies indicate that almost all are not systematically closing their income gap with developed nations. The few studies to consider whether they instead exhibit club convergence—i.e., convergence to a steady-state equilibrium significantly inferior to that of the developed economies—offer little convincing evidence of this either. We argue that this reflects the limitations of their measure of relative income (which includes their sample’s average income) and/or the assumptions underlying the discrete-break unit-root tests they employ. By avoiding these limitations, we obtain evidence of two Latin American convergence clubs

Estimating Intertemporal Allocation Parameters using Synthetic Residual Estimation

We present a novel structural estimation procedure for models of intertemporal allocation. This is based on modelling expectation errors directly; we refer to it as Synthetic Residual Estimation (SRE). The flexibility of SRE allows us to account for measurement error in consumption and for heterogeneity in discount factors and coefficients of relative risk aversion. An investigation of the small sample properties of the SRE estimator indicates that it dominates GMM estimation of both exact and approximate Euler equations in the case when we have short panels with noisy consumption data. We apply SRE to two panels drawn from the PSID and estimate the joint distribution of the discount factor and the coefficient of relative risk aversion. We reject strongly homogeneity of the discount factors and the coefficient of relative risk aversion. We find that, on average, the more educated are more patient and more risk averse than the less educated. Within education strata, patience and risk aversion are negatively correlated

Aging concrete structures: a review of mechanics and concepts

The safe and cost-efficient management of our built infrastructure is a challenging task considering the expected service life of at least 50 years. In spite of time-dependent changes in material properties, deterioration processes and changing demand by society, the structures need to satisfy many technical requirements related to serviceability, durability, sustainability and bearing capacity. This review paper summarizes the challenges associated with the safe design and maintenance of aging concrete structures and gives an overview of some concepts and approaches that are being developed to address these challenges

Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications

The real interest rate plays a central role in many important financial and macroeconomic models, including the consumption-based asset pricing model, neoclassical growth model, and models of the monetary transmission mechanism. We selectively survey the empirical literature that examines the time-series properties of real interest rates. A key stylized fact is that postwar real interest rates exhibit substantial persistence, shown by extended periods of time where the real interest rate is substantially above or below the sample mean. The finding of persistence in real interest rates is pervasive, appearing in a variety of guises in the literature. We discuss the implications of persistence for theoretical models, illustrate existing findings with updated data, and highlight areas for future research.Interest rates

Forecasting the Price of Oil

We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need to know about the choice of sample period and about the tradeoffs between alternative oil price series and model specifications? Are real or nominal oil prices predictable based on macroeconomic aggregates? Does this predictability translate into gains in out-of-sample forecast accuracy compared with conventional no-change forecasts? How useful are oil futures markets in forecasting the price of oil? How useful are survey forecasts? How does one evaluate the sensitivity of a baseline oil price forecast to alternative assumptions about future demand and supply conditions? How does one quantify risks associated with oil price forecasts? Can joint forecasts of the price of oil and of U.S. real GDP growth be improved upon by allowing for asymmetries?Econometric and statistical methods; International topics

Financial Fragility and Economic Fluctuations: Numerical Simulations and Policy Implications

This paper proposes a simple prototype model that describes the complex dynamics of a sophisticated monetary economy. The interaction between the current and intertemporal financial constraints of economic units brings about irregular fluctuations at the micro and macro levels. By means of qualitative dynamic analysis and numerical simulations, we reformulate in more operational terms, and extend in a number of new directions, the model suggested recently by one of the authors (Vercelli, 2000) to study the interaction between financial fragility, modelled in terms of structural instability, and dynamically unstable financial fluctuations.Complex dynamics, Structural instability; Financial fragility; Economic fluctuations; Numerical simulations

Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications

The real interest rate plays a central role in many important financial and macroeconomic models, including the consumption-based asset pricing model, neoclassical growth model, and models of the monetary transmission mechanism. The authors selectively survey the empirical literature that examines the time-series properties of real interest rates. A key stylized fact is that postwar real interest rates exhibit substantial persistence, shown by extended periods when the real interest rate is substantially above or below the sample mean. The finding of persistence in real interest rates is pervasive, appearing in a variety of guises in the literature. The authors discuss the implications of persistence for theoretical models, illustrate existing findings with updated data, and highlight areas for future research.Interest rates

Estimating Markups under Nonlinear Pricing Competition

This paper provides a structural interpretation to the estimates of the shape and position of nonlinear tariffs. We focus on the evaluation of price-cost margins, and thus we need to identify marginal cost from an equilibrium model of nonlinear pricing competition. We estimate these price-cost margins using quarterly data from the early U.S. cellular telephone industry between 1984 and 1988. Our results indicate that the margins are increased under duopoly, due to a significant reduction in marginal costs. Moreover, we find that the price-cost margins vary over the consumption levels and that low end users are subject to higher price-cost margins than high-end users. The impact of competition further increases the margins in the low-end user segment, relative to high endusers. In that sense the benefits of competition, which are largely due to increased efficiencies, are passed on relatively more to high-end users. We also show that these findings are robust even if one includes a number of observable market demand and cost variables. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG - (Schätzung von Preisaufschlägen im nicht-linearen Preissetzungswettbewerb) Dieses Papier bietet eine strukturelle Interpretation der Schätzungen der Form und Position nichtlinearer Tarife. Dabei konzentrieren wir uns auf die Bewertung von Preisaufschlägen und müssen daher zunächst die Grenzkosten in einem Gleichgewichtsmodell nicht-linearen Preiswettbewerbs identifizieren. Wir schätzen diese Preisaufschläge, indem wir Quartalsdaten der jungen Mobilfunkindustrie der U.S.A. zwischen 1984 und 1988 verwenden. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass die Aufschläge in einem Duopol aufgrund signifikanter Grenzkostenreduktion größer sind. Außerdem lässt sich feststellen, dass die Preisaufschläge über die Konsumniveaus variieren und dass Nutzer im Niedrigsegment ('low-end') höhere Preisaufschläge zu tragen haben als 'highend'- Nutzer. Der Einfluß des Wettbewerbs vergrößert noch die Preisaufschläge im 'low-end'-Bereich im Vergleich zum 'high-end'. In diesem Sinne profitieren die 'high-end'-Nutzer mehr vom Wettbewerb, der sich vor allem in gesteigerten Effizienzen positiv niederschlägt. Diese Ergebnisse sind robust, wie gezeigt werden kann, sogar wenn eine Reihe beobachtbarer Marktnachfrage- und Kostenvariablen hinzugefügt wird.Estimation of Equilibrium Oligopoly Models, Competitive Nonlinear Pricing, Common Agency