26,269 research outputs found
Sequence Modelling For Analysing Student Interaction with Educational Systems
The analysis of log data generated by online educational systems is an
important task for improving the systems, and furthering our knowledge of how
students learn. This paper uses previously unseen log data from Edulab, the
largest provider of digital learning for mathematics in Denmark, to analyse the
sessions of its users, where 1.08 million student sessions are extracted from a
subset of their data. We propose to model students as a distribution of
different underlying student behaviours, where the sequence of actions from
each session belongs to an underlying student behaviour. We model student
behaviour as Markov chains, such that a student is modelled as a distribution
of Markov chains, which are estimated using a modified k-means clustering
algorithm. The resulting Markov chains are readily interpretable, and in a
qualitative analysis around 125,000 student sessions are identified as
exhibiting unproductive student behaviour. Based on our results this student
representation is promising, especially for educational systems offering many
different learning usages, and offers an alternative to common approaches like
modelling student behaviour as a single Markov chain often done in the
literature.Comment: The 10th International Conference on Educational Data Mining 201
Discovering Clusters in Motion Time-Series Data
A new approach is proposed for clustering time-series data. The approach can be used to discover groupings of similar object motions that were observed in a video collection. A finite mixture of hidden Markov models (HMMs) is fitted to the motion data using the expectation-maximization (EM) framework. Previous approaches for HMM-based clustering employ a k-means formulation, where each sequence is assigned to only a single HMM. In contrast, the formulation presented in this paper allows each sequence to belong to more than a single HMM with some probability, and the hard decision about the sequence class membership can be deferred until a later time when such a decision is required. Experiments with simulated data demonstrate the benefit of using this EM-based approach when there is more "overlap" in the processes generating the data. Experiments with real data show the promising potential of HMM-based motion clustering in a number of applications.Office of Naval Research (N000140310108, N000140110444); National Science Foundation (IIS-0208876, CAREER Award 0133825
Modeling Individual Cyclic Variation in Human Behavior
Cycles are fundamental to human health and behavior. However, modeling cycles
in time series data is challenging because in most cases the cycles are not
labeled or directly observed and need to be inferred from multidimensional
measurements taken over time. Here, we present CyHMMs, a cyclic hidden Markov
model method for detecting and modeling cycles in a collection of
multidimensional heterogeneous time series data. In contrast to previous cycle
modeling methods, CyHMMs deal with a number of challenges encountered in
modeling real-world cycles: they can model multivariate data with discrete and
continuous dimensions; they explicitly model and are robust to missing data;
and they can share information across individuals to model variation both
within and between individual time series. Experiments on synthetic and
real-world health-tracking data demonstrate that CyHMMs infer cycle lengths
more accurately than existing methods, with 58% lower error on simulated data
and 63% lower error on real-world data compared to the best-performing
baseline. CyHMMs can also perform functions which baselines cannot: they can
model the progression of individual features/symptoms over the course of the
cycle, identify the most variable features, and cluster individual time series
into groups with distinct characteristics. Applying CyHMMs to two real-world
health-tracking datasets -- of menstrual cycle symptoms and physical activity
tracking data -- yields important insights including which symptoms to expect
at each point during the cycle. We also find that people fall into several
groups with distinct cycle patterns, and that these groups differ along
dimensions not provided to the model. For example, by modeling missing data in
the menstrual cycles dataset, we are able to discover a medically relevant
group of birth control users even though information on birth control is not
given to the model.Comment: Accepted at WWW 201
Clustering based on Random Graph Model embedding Vertex Features
Large datasets with interactions between objects are common to numerous
scientific fields (i.e. social science, internet, biology...). The interactions
naturally define a graph and a common way to explore or summarize such dataset
is graph clustering. Most techniques for clustering graph vertices just use the
topology of connections ignoring informations in the vertices features. In this
paper, we provide a clustering algorithm exploiting both types of data based on
a statistical model with latent structure characterizing each vertex both by a
vector of features as well as by its connectivity. We perform simulations to
compare our algorithm with existing approaches, and also evaluate our method
with real datasets based on hyper-textual documents. We find that our algorithm
successfully exploits whatever information is found both in the connectivity
pattern and in the features
Generalized Species Sampling Priors with Latent Beta reinforcements
Many popular Bayesian nonparametric priors can be characterized in terms of
exchangeable species sampling sequences. However, in some applications,
exchangeability may not be appropriate. We introduce a {novel and
probabilistically coherent family of non-exchangeable species sampling
sequences characterized by a tractable predictive probability function with
weights driven by a sequence of independent Beta random variables. We compare
their theoretical clustering properties with those of the Dirichlet Process and
the two parameters Poisson-Dirichlet process. The proposed construction
provides a complete characterization of the joint process, differently from
existing work. We then propose the use of such process as prior distribution in
a hierarchical Bayes modeling framework, and we describe a Markov Chain Monte
Carlo sampler for posterior inference. We evaluate the performance of the prior
and the robustness of the resulting inference in a simulation study, providing
a comparison with popular Dirichlet Processes mixtures and Hidden Markov
Models. Finally, we develop an application to the detection of chromosomal
aberrations in breast cancer by leveraging array CGH data.Comment: For correspondence purposes, Edoardo M. Airoldi's email is
[email protected]; Federico Bassetti's email is
[email protected]; Michele Guindani's email is
[email protected] ; Fabrizo Leisen's email is
[email protected]. To appear in the Journal of the American
Statistical Associatio
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