54,754 research outputs found

    Advances in forecasting with neural networks? Empirical evidence from the NN3 competition on time series prediction

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    This paper reports the results of the NN3 competition, which is a replication of the M3 competition with an extension of the competition towards neural network (NN) and computational intelligence (CI) methods, in order to assess what progress has been made in the 10 years since the M3 competition. Two masked subsets of the M3 monthly industry data, containing 111 and 11 empirical time series respectively, were chosen, controlling for multiple data conditions of time series length (short/long), data patterns (seasonal/non-seasonal) and forecasting horizons (short/medium/long). The relative forecasting accuracy was assessed using the metrics from the M3, together with later extensions of scaled measures, and non-parametric statistical tests. The NN3 competition attracted 59 submissions from NN, CI and statistics, making it the largest CI competition on time series data. Its main findings include: (a) only one NN outperformed the damped trend using the sMAPE, but more contenders outperformed the AutomatANN of the M3; (b) ensembles of CI approaches performed very well, better than combinations of statistical methods; (c) a novel, complex statistical method outperformed all statistical and Cl benchmarks; and (d) for the most difficult subset of short and seasonal series, a methodology employing echo state neural networks outperformed all others. The NN3 results highlight the ability of NN to handle complex data, including short and seasonal time series, beyond prior expectations, and thus identify multiple avenues for future research. (C) 2011 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

    Data Mining and Machine Learning in Astronomy

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    We review the current state of data mining and machine learning in astronomy. 'Data Mining' can have a somewhat mixed connotation from the point of view of a researcher in this field. If used correctly, it can be a powerful approach, holding the potential to fully exploit the exponentially increasing amount of available data, promising great scientific advance. However, if misused, it can be little more than the black-box application of complex computing algorithms that may give little physical insight, and provide questionable results. Here, we give an overview of the entire data mining process, from data collection through to the interpretation of results. We cover common machine learning algorithms, such as artificial neural networks and support vector machines, applications from a broad range of astronomy, emphasizing those where data mining techniques directly resulted in improved science, and important current and future directions, including probability density functions, parallel algorithms, petascale computing, and the time domain. We conclude that, so long as one carefully selects an appropriate algorithm, and is guided by the astronomical problem at hand, data mining can be very much the powerful tool, and not the questionable black box.Comment: Published in IJMPD. 61 pages, uses ws-ijmpd.cls. Several extra figures, some minor additions to the tex

    A System for Accessible Artificial Intelligence

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    While artificial intelligence (AI) has become widespread, many commercial AI systems are not yet accessible to individual researchers nor the general public due to the deep knowledge of the systems required to use them. We believe that AI has matured to the point where it should be an accessible technology for everyone. We present an ongoing project whose ultimate goal is to deliver an open source, user-friendly AI system that is specialized for machine learning analysis of complex data in the biomedical and health care domains. We discuss how genetic programming can aid in this endeavor, and highlight specific examples where genetic programming has automated machine learning analyses in previous projects.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figures, submitted to Genetic Programming Theory and Practice 2017 worksho
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