Development, test and comparison of two Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis(MCDA) models: A case of healthcare infrastructure location

When planning a new development, location decisions have always been a major issue. This paper examines and compares two modelling methods used to inform a healthcare infrastructure location decision. Two Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) models were developed to support the optimisation of this decision-making process, within a National Health Service (NHS) organisation, in the UK. The proposed model structure is based on seven criteria (environment and safety, size, total cost, accessibility, design, risks and population profile) and 28 sub-criteria. First, Evidential Reasoning (ER) was used to solve the model, then, the processes and results were compared with the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). It was established that using ER or AHP led to the same solutions. However, the scores between the alternatives were significantly different; which impacted the stakeholders‟ decision-making. As the processes differ according to the model selected, ER or AHP, it is relevant to establish the practical and managerial implications for selecting one model or the other and providing evidence of which models best fit this specific environment. To achieve an optimum operational decision it is argued, in this study, that the most transparent and robust framework is achieved by merging ER process with the pair-wise comparison, an element of AHP. This paper makes a defined contribution by developing and examining the use of MCDA models, to rationalise new healthcare infrastructure location, with the proposed model to be used for future decision. Moreover, very few studies comparing different MCDA techniques were found, this study results enable practitioners to consider even further the modelling characteristics to ensure the development of a reliable framework, even if this means applying a hybrid approach

An advanced fuzzy Bayesian-based FMEA approach for assessing maritime supply chain risks

This paper aims to develop a novel model to assess the risk factors of maritime supply chains by incorporating a fuzzy belief rule approach with Bayesian networks. The new model, compared to traditional risk analysis methods, has the capability of improving result accuracy under a high uncertainty in risk data. A real case of a world leading container shipping company is investigated, and the research results reveal that among the most significant risk factors are transportation of dangerous goods, fluctuation of fuel price, fierce competition, unattractive markets, and change of exchange rates in sequence. Such findings will provide useful insights for accident prevention

Evaluation of Job Offers Using The Evidential Reasoning Approach

The word 2018;Job2019; term as a regular activity performed in exchange for payment is considered as one of the most important activities for many families worldwide .Evaluation is necessary when more than one opportunity come to an To fulfill their desired goal, it is the 2018;evaluation2019; which assesses among the factors. In addition, it is difficult to measure qualitative factors in a quantitative way, resulting incomplete-ness in data and hence, uncertainty. Besides it is essential to address the subject of uncertainty by using apt methodology; otherwise, the decision to choose a job will become inapt. There exist many methods name as Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP), Analytical Network Process (ANP) and so on. But the mentioned methods are not suitable to address the subject of uncertainty and hence, resulting inappropriate selection to the expecting job. Therefore, this paper demonstrates the application of a novel method named Evidential Reasoning (ER), which is capable of addressing the uncertainty of multi-criterion problem, where there exist factors of both subjective and objective nature. The ER method handles uncertainties by using a belief structure is aggregating degrees of belief from lower level factors to higher level factors

Supply Chain Risk Management in the Container Liner Shipping Industry from a Strategic Point of View

One of the most significant current discussions in the container liner shipping industry (CLSI) is supply chain risk management (SCRM). In recent years, there has been an increasing interest in managing risk and reliability in the container supply chain from many viewpoints. This paper reviews the significant literature related to SCRM in the CLSI from a strategic point of view. By integrating the concept of the CLSI, the planning levels of container liner shipping and the concept of SCRM, questions have been raised about risk and uncertainty arising from the external environments (i.e. country-limited scope) and how can these factors influence the organisational reliability and capability of liner shipping operators (LSOs). Another question concerns how uncertain environments can influence the punctuality of containerships. So far, however, no research has been found that answered these questions which make further research is meaningful. For future research, this paper recommends an extensive assessment of a business environment-based risk and an evaluation of organizational reliability and capability of LSOs from the strategic point of view. Finally, it is worth mentioning that there is a research gap in both industry and academia on how to analyse and predict the punctuality of containerships (i.e. arrival and departure) under uncertain environments. Keywords: supply chain risk management, container liner shipping industry, business-environment based risk, organisational reliability and capability, punctuality

Understanding and Evaluating Assurance Cases

Assurance cases are a method for providing assurance for a system by giving an argument to justify a claim about the system, based on evidence about its design, development, and tested behavior. In comparison with assurance based on guidelines or standards (which essentially specify only the evidence to be produced), the chief novelty in assurance cases is provision of an explicit argument. In principle, this can allow assurance cases to be more finely tuned to the specific circumstances of the system, and more agile than guidelines in adapting to new techniques and applications. The first part of this report (Sections 1-4) provides an introduction to assurance cases. Although this material should be accessible to all those with an interest in these topics, the examples focus on software for airborne systems, traditionally assured using the DO-178C guidelines and its predecessors. A brief survey of some existing assurance cases is provided in Section 5. The second part (Section 6) considers the criteria, methods, and tools that may be used to evaluate whether an assurance case provides sufficient confidence that a particular system or service is fit for its intended use. An assurance case cannot provide unequivocal "proof" for its claim, so much of the discussion focuses on the interpretation of such less-than-definitive arguments, and on methods to counteract confirmation bias and other fallibilities in human reasoning

An advanced risk analysis approach for container port safety evaluation

Risk analysis in seaports plays an increasingly important role in ensuring port operation reliability, maritime transportation safety and supply chain distribution resilience. However, the task is not straightforward given the challenges, including that port safety is affected by multiple factors related to design, installation, operation and maintenance and that traditional risk assessment methods such as quantitative risk analysis cannot sufficiently address uncertainty in failure data. This paper develops an advanced Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) approach through incorporating Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Networks (FRBN) to evaluate the criticality of the hazardous events (HEs) in a container terminal. The rational use of the Degrees of Belief (DoB) in a fuzzy rule base (FRB) facilitates the implementation of the new method in Container Terminal Risk Evaluation (CTRE) in practice. Compared to conventional FMEA methods, the new approach integrates FRB and BN in a complementary manner, in which the former provides a realistic and flexible way to describe input failure information while the latter allows easy updating of risk estimation results and facilitates real-time safety evaluation and dynamic risk-based decision support in container terminals. The proposed approach can also be tailored for wider application in other engineering and management systems, especially when instant risk ranking is required by the stakeholders to measure, predict and improve their system safety and reliability performance

Real-time Safety Assessment of Dynamic Systems in Non-stationary Environments: A Review of Methods and Techniques

Real-time safety assessment (RTSA) of dynamic systems is a critical task that has significant implications for various fields such as industrial and transportation applications, especially in non-stationary environments. However, the absence of a comprehensive review of real-time safety assessment methods in non-stationary environments impedes the progress and refinement of related methods. In this paper, a review of methods and techniques for RTSA tasks in non-stationary environments is provided. Specifically, the background and significance of RTSA approaches in non-stationary environments are firstly highlighted. We then present a problem description that covers the definition, classification, and main challenges. We review recent developments in related technologies such as online active learning, online semi-supervised learning, online transfer learning, and online anomaly detection. Finally, we discuss future outlooks and potential directions for further research. Our review aims to provide a comprehensive and up-to-date overview of real-time safety assessment methods in non-stationary environments, which can serve as a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners in this field.Comment: Accepted by the 2023 CAA Symposium on Fault Detection, Supervision and Safety for Technical Processes (SAFEPROCESS 2023