How do Financial Institutions in China Mitigate Risks in Securitization Markets?

Asset securitization as the essential financial tool has increased the liquidity of underlying assets and promoted rapid economic development. In 2008, the outbreak of Subprime Mortgage Crisis that brought by the collapse of securitization triggered the U.S. securitization market to realize the risks involved in structured financial products, and thus facilitated the development of risk controlling tools. Through the analysis of securitization process, drivers, and credit rating agencies, the study concentrates on the formation of risks and modeling evaluation with evidence in both China and the U.S. markets. Statistical analysis was conducted on Chinese securitized products combining with risk management models built in the U.S. market. The results not only show risk evaluation tools that could improve the market maturity but also reveals the lack of information disclosure in China with the limited access to historical data. The paper attempts to address policy recommendations on mitigating potential risks and promoting financial developments in the China securitization market

A quantitative perspective on ethics in large team science

The gradual crowding out of singleton and small team science by large team endeavors is challenging key features of research culture. It is therefore important for the future of scientific practice to reflect upon the individual scientist's ethical responsibilities within teams. To facilitate this reflection we show labor force trends in the US revealing a skewed growth in academic ranks and increased levels of competition for promotion within the system; we analyze teaming trends across disciplines and national borders demonstrating why it is becoming difficult to distribute credit and to avoid conflicts of interest; and we use more than a century of Nobel prize data to show how science is outgrowing its old institutions of singleton awards. Of particular concern within the large team environment is the weakening of the mentor-mentee relation, which undermines the cultivation of virtue ethics across scientific generations. These trends and emerging organizational complexities call for a universal set of behavioral norms that transcend team heterogeneity and hierarchy. To this end, our expository analysis provides a survey of ethical issues in team settings to inform science ethics education and science policy.Comment: 13 pages, 5 figures, 1 table. Keywords: team ethics; team management; team evaluation; science of scienc

What Lessons have been learnt since the East Asian Crisis in 1997/98? CIBS, Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates

This paper discusses the movement of capital flows to and from the exchange rate regimes and monetary policies of China, India, Brazil, and South Africa (CIBS). Furthermore, we compare the level of financial stability, and the composition and duration of capital flows of the countries on a policy level according to the ? ?third generation? crisis models?; following which the East Asian Crisis of 1997/98 linkages between the corporate and financial sectors, and foreign short-term debt are given further attention. The paper concludes by comparing all four countries and analysing possible risks in CIBS financial systems.international financial markets, financial stability, capital flows, exchange rates, China, India, Brazil, South Africa

The Changing Landscape of Export Credit Agencies in the Context of the Global Financial Crisis

Explores the increase since 2008 in official ECAs' guarantees for financing trade and investment, regional cooperation, ties with multilateral development banks, and public-private partnerships. Calls for monitoring of transparency and accountability

Subnational credit ratings : a comparative review

This paper surveys methodological issues in subnational credit ratings and highlights key challenges for developing countries. Subnational borrowing from capital markets has been on the rise owing to fiscal decentralization and demand for infrastructure investments. A prerequisite for accessing capital markets, subnational credit ratings have also emerged as a part of broader reform for fiscal sustainability. They facilitate a more transparent budgetary and financial management system. The global financial crisis makes subnational credit ratings more relevant, as they contribute to fiscal risk evaluations and fiscal adjustment. In addition to subnationals’ own credit strength, the creditworthiness of the sovereign and the intergovernmental fiscal system are among the most critical rating criteria. Implicit and contingent liabilities are integral to the rating process. Indirect debt instruments including off-balance-sheet financing create fiscal risks. The ongoing financial crisis has reinforced the rating focus on the management of liquidity, debt structure, and off-balance-sheet liabilities.Debt Markets,Banks&Banking Reform,,Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress,Access to Finance

Composite Leading Indicators for Ukraine: An Early Warning Model

The project has undertaken the following tasks: Based on an analysis of the pattern of growth of the Ukrainian economy since the end of the post-Soviet recession (the year 2000) we have formulated the hypotheses concerning the factors preceding/affecting the upturns and downturns (with a focus on the latter) of the country’s growth; We have studied international “best practice” in early warning indicators in order to design a similar system for Ukraine; We have selected the relevant indicators, consistent with our hypotheses and used a probit model in order to experiment with these indicators; The final set of indicators used in the model included the following lagged independent variables: changes in the value of export, changes in real Exchange rate of the hryvnya, producers’ price index adjusted for domestic price inflation index and the IMF’s metal price index, bank credit interest rate, changes in the industrial output of the European Union; our dependent variable (which was used as a proxy for the overall economic growth) was changes in real industrial output; The model was used to formulate a warning forecast for the Ukrainian economy for the second half of 2008 based on the data for the January 2000 – June 2008 period; all predictions for the second half of 2008 have delivered warning about a downturn of the Ukrainian economy; We ran a few additional experiments with the model, and We have recommended several further steps of analysis toward a full implementation and institutionalization of such a model in the near future.business cycle, forecasting, econometric model, Ukraine, Ukrainian economy, economic growth, GDP, early warning indicator

THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC DOWNTURN AND AFRICAN ECONOMY – RECENT TRENDS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS

Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) is crucial in spurring economic growth and poverty reduction in developing countries, especially in the context of globalization and liberalization. For that reason there is in existence, intense competition among developed and developing countries to attract FDI (IFC, 2007). According to the World Bank, while 2007 was a record year for FDI to developing economies, the credit crunch will greatly impede this progress as foreign direct investment (FDI) and equity investment are come under pressure. The impact of the crisis on developing countries of Africa will affect different types of international resource flows: private capital flows such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), portfolio flows and international lending; official flows such as development finance institutions; and capital and current transfers such as official development assistance and remittances. The global economic crisis has tested the strength and reliance of many economies around the globe particularly in Africa, resulting in the collapse of large financial institutions, the “bail out†of banks by national governments and downturns in stock markets around the world. The current study seeks to investigate the impact the wake of ongoing global Economic downturn on the FDIs to Africa with a particular focus on Namibia. Namibia currently struggles with the problem of high unemployment rates and the current global economic crisis is likely to worsen the situation.global economy, Africa, Namibia, foreign direct investment, economic growth, stock market

Data Innovation for International Development: An overview of natural language processing for qualitative data analysis

Availability, collection and access to quantitative data, as well as its limitations, often make qualitative data the resource upon which development programs heavily rely. Both traditional interview data and social media analysis can provide rich contextual information and are essential for research, appraisal, monitoring and evaluation. These data may be difficult to process and analyze both systematically and at scale. This, in turn, limits the ability of timely data driven decision-making which is essential in fast evolving complex social systems. In this paper, we discuss the potential of using natural language processing to systematize analysis of qualitative data, and to inform quick decision-making in the development context. We illustrate this with interview data generated in a format of micro-narratives for the UNDP Fragments of Impact project

Shadow sovereign ratings for unrated developing countries

The authors attempt to predict sovereign ratings for developing countries that do not have risk ratings from agencies such as Fitch, Moody's, and Standard and Poor's. Ratings affect capital flows to developing countries through international bond, loan, and equity markets. Sovereign rating also acts as a ceiling for the foreign currency rating of sub-sovereign borrowers. As of the end of 2006, however, only 86 developing countries have been rated by the rating agencies. Of these, 15 countries have not been rated since 2004. Nearly 70 developing countries have never been rated. The results indicate that the unrated countries are not always at the bottom of the rating spectrum. Several unrated poor countries appear to have a"B"or higher rating, in a similar range as the emerging market economies with capital market access. Drawing on the literature, the analysis presents a stylized relationship between borrowing costs and the credit rating of sovereign bonds. The launch spread rises as the credit rating deteriorates, registering a sharp rise at the investment grade threshold. Based on these findings, a case can be made in favor of helping poor countries obtain credit ratings not only for sovereign borrowing, but for sub-sovereign entities'access to international debt and equity capital. The rating model, along with the stylized relationship between spreads and ratings can be useful for securitization and other financial structures, and for leveraging official aid for improving borrowing terms in poor countries.Economic Theory&Research,Country Strategy&Performance,Financial Intermediation,External Debt,Inequality

Climate change, agriculture and Fairtrade: identifying the challenges and opportunities

This paper presents the findings of a study commissioned by the UK's Fairtrade Foundation on the implications of climate change for agricultural producers in Fairtrade value chains