Behavioral Economics: Past, Present, Future

Behavioral economics increases the explanatory power of economics by providing it with more realistic psychological foundations. This book consists of representative recent articles in behavioral economics. This chapter is intended to provide an introduction to the approach and methods of behavioral economics, and to some of its major findings, applications, and promising new directions. It also seeks to fill some unavoidable gaps in the chapters’ coverage of topics

Improving Data Driven Part-of-Speech Tagging by Morphologic Knowledge Induction

We present a Markov part-of-speech tagger for which the P (w|t) emission probabilities of word w given tag t are replaced by a linear interpolation of tag emission probabilities given a list of representations of w. As word representations, string su#xes of w are cut o# at the local maxima of the Normalized Backward Successor Variety. This procedure allows for the derivation of linguistically meaningful string suffixes that may relate to certain POS labels. Since no linguistic knowledge is needed, the procedure is language independent. Basic Markov model part-of-speech taggers are significantly outperformed by our model

Similarity-Based Models of Word Cooccurrence Probabilities

In many applications of natural language processing (NLP) it is necessary to determine the likelihood of a given word combination. For example, a speech recognizer may need to determine which of the two word combinations ``eat a peach'' and ``eat a beach'' is more likely. Statistical NLP methods determine the likelihood of a word combination from its frequency in a training corpus. However, the nature of language is such that many word combinations are infrequent and do not occur in any given corpus. In this work we propose a method for estimating the probability of such previously unseen word combinations using available information on ``most similar'' words. We describe probabilistic word association models based on distributional word similarity, and apply them to two tasks, language modeling and pseudo-word disambiguation. In the language modeling task, a similarity-based model is used to improve probability estimates for unseen bigrams in a back-off language model. The similarity-based method yields a 20% perplexity improvement in the prediction of unseen bigrams and statistically significant reductions in speech-recognition error. We also compare four similarity-based estimation methods against back-off and maximum-likelihood estimation methods on a pseudo-word sense disambiguation task in which we controlled for both unigram and bigram frequency to avoid giving too much weight to easy-to-disambiguate high-frequency configurations. The similarity-based methods perform up to 40% better on this particular task.Comment: 26 pages, 5 figure

Technology assessment between risk, uncertainty and ignorance

The use of most if not all technologies is accompanied by negative side effects, While we may profit from today’s technologies, it is most often future generations who bear most risks. Risk analysis therefore becomes a delicate issue, because future risks often cannot be assigned a meaningful occurance probability. This paper argues that technology assessement most often deal with uncertainty and ignorance rather than risk when we include future generations into our ethical, political or juridal thinking. This has serious implications as probabilistic decision approaches are not applicable anymore. I contend that a virtue ethical approach in which dianoetic virtues play a central role may supplement a welfare based ethics in order to overcome the difficulties in dealing with uncertainty and ignorance in technology assessement

ELICA: An Automated Tool for Dynamic Extraction of Requirements Relevant Information

Requirements elicitation requires extensive knowledge and deep understanding of the problem domain where the final system will be situated. However, in many software development projects, analysts are required to elicit the requirements from an unfamiliar domain, which often causes communication barriers between analysts and stakeholders. In this paper, we propose a requirements ELICitation Aid tool (ELICA) to help analysts better understand the target application domain by dynamic extraction and labeling of requirements-relevant knowledge. To extract the relevant terms, we leverage the flexibility and power of Weighted Finite State Transducers (WFSTs) in dynamic modeling of natural language processing tasks. In addition to the information conveyed through text, ELICA captures and processes non-linguistic information about the intention of speakers such as their confidence level, analytical tone, and emotions. The extracted information is made available to the analysts as a set of labeled snippets with highlighted relevant terms which can also be exported as an artifact of the Requirements Engineering (RE) process. The application and usefulness of ELICA are demonstrated through a case study. This study shows how pre-existing relevant information about the application domain and the information captured during an elicitation meeting, such as the conversation and stakeholders' intentions, can be captured and used to support analysts achieving their tasks.Comment: 2018 IEEE 26th International Requirements Engineering Conference Workshop

Die Rolle der Zielnähe und der investierten Anstrengung für den erwarteten Wert einer Handlung

In human neuroscientific research, there has been an increasing interest in how the brain computes the value of an anticipated outcome. However, evidence is still missing about which valuation related brain regions are modulated by the proximity to an expected goal and the previously invested effort to reach a goal. The aim of this dissertation is to investigate the effects of goal proximity and invested effort on valuation related regions in the human brain. We addressed this question in two fMRI studies by integrating a commonly used reward anticipation task in differential versions of a Multitrial Reward Schedule Paradigm. In both experiments, subjects had to perform consecutive reward anticipation tasks under two different reward contingencies: in the delayed condition, participants received a monetary reward only after successful completion of multiple consecutive trials. In the immediate condition, money was earned after every successful trial. In the first study, we could demonstrate that the rostral cingulate zone of the posterior medial frontal cortex signals action value contingent to goal proximity, thereby replicating neurophysiological findings about goal proximity signals in a homologous region in non-human primates. The findings of the second study imply that brain regions associated with general cognitive control processes are modulated by previous effort investment. Furthermore, we found the posterior lateral prefrontal cortex and the orbitofrontal cortex to be involved in coding for the effort-based context of a situation. In sum, these results extend the role of the human rostral cingulate zone in outcome evaluation to the continuous updating of action values over a course of action steps based on the proximity to the expected reward. Furthermore, we tentatively suggest that previous effort investment invokes processes under the control of the executive system, and that posterior lateral prefrontal cortex and the orbitofrontal cortex are involved in an effort-based context representation that can be used for outcome evaluation that is dependent on the characteristics of the current situation.Derzeit besteht im Bereich der Neurowissenschaften ein großes Interesse daran aufzuklären, auf welche Weise verschiedene Variablen die Wertigkeit eines erwarteten Handlungsziels beeinflussen bzw. welche Hirnregionen an der Repräsentation der Wertigkeit eines Handlungsziels beteiligt sind. Die meisten Untersuchungen beziehen sich dabei auf Einflussgrößen wie die erwartete Belohnungshöhe, die Wahrscheinlichkeit, mit der ein bestimmtes Ereignis eintritt, oder die Dauer bis zum Erhalt einer Belohnung. Bisher liegen jedoch kaum Untersuchungen vor bezüglich zweier anderer Variablen, die ebenfalls den erwarteten Wert eines Handlungsergebnisses beeinflussen. Das sind (a) die Nähe zu dem erwarteten Ziel und (b) die bisher investierte Anstrengung, um ein Ziel zu erreichen. Das Ziel der vorliegenden Dissertation ist zu untersuchen, wie die Nähe zum Ziel und die bisher investierte Anstrengung Gehirnregionen beeinflussen, die mit der Repräsentation von Wertigkeit im Zusammenhang stehen. Dazu führten wir zwei fMRT-Studien durch, in denen wir eine klassische Belohnungs-Antizipationsaufgabe in unterschiedliche Versionen eines „Multitrial Reward Schedule“ Paradigmas integriert haben. Das bedeutet, dass die Probanden Belohnungs-Antizipationsaufgaben unter zwei unterschiedlichen Belohnungskontingenzen bearbeiteten: In der verzögerten Bedingung erhielten die Probanden einen Geldbetrag nach der erfolgreichen Bearbeitung von mehreren aufeinanderfolgenden Aufgaben, in der direkten Bedingung dagegen nach jeder korrekt ausgeführten Aufgabe. In der ersten Studie konnte eine sukzessiv ansteigende Aktivität in Abhängigkeit zur Zielnähe in der rostralen cingulären Zone identifiziert werden. Das deutet darauf hin, dass dieses Areal den Wert einer Handlung in Abhängigkeit zur Nähe zum Ziel kodiert. Die Ergebnisse der zweiten Studie zeigten, dass die bisher investierte Anstrengung kortikale Regionen moduliert, die klassischerweise mit kognitiven Kontrollfunktionen in Zusammenhang gebracht werden. Außerdem repräsentierten der posteriore laterale präfrontale Cortex und der orbitofrontale Cortex den motivationalen Kontext eines Trials anhand des Risikos des Verlustes von bisher investierter Anstrengung. Insgesamt weisen diese Befunde darauf hin, dass die rostrale cinguläre Zone eine entscheidende Rolle spielt für die Kontrolle sequenzieller Handlungsstufen, die auf eine verzögerte Belohnung ausgerichtet sind. Diese Kontrollfunktion scheint auf der kontinuierlichen Aktualisierung des Wertes einer Handlungsstufe zu basieren, der von der aktuellen Zielnähe bestimmt wird. Die Befunde der zweiten Studie lassen darauf schließen, dass sich die bisher investierte Anstrengung zur Erreichung eines Handlungsziels auf die Bereitstellung von allgemeinen kognitiven Ressourcen auswirkt. Das Risiko des Verlustes von bisher investierter Anstrengung kann außerdem ein kontextuelles Merkmal der Situation darstellen, das als Bezugsrahmen für die Evaluation des erwarteten Wertes dienen kann

Preliminary Experiments using Subjective Logic for the Polyrepresentation of Information Needs

According to the principle of polyrepresentation, retrieval accuracy may improve through the combination of multiple and diverse information object representations about e.g. the context of the user, the information sought, or the retrieval system. Recently, the principle of polyrepresentation was mathematically expressed using subjective logic, where the potential suitability of each representation for improving retrieval performance was formalised through degrees of belief and uncertainty. No experimental evidence or practical application has so far validated this model. We extend the work of Lioma et al. (2010), by providing a practical application and analysis of the model. We show how to map the abstract notions of belief and uncertainty to real-life evidence drawn from a retrieval dataset. We also show how to estimate two different types of polyrepresentation assuming either (a) independence or (b) dependence between the information objects that are combined. We focus on the polyrepresentation of different types of context relating to user information needs (i.e. work task, user background knowledge, ideal answer) and show that the subjective logic model can predict their optimal combination prior and independently to the retrieval process