Pricing and Risk Management with High-Dimensional Quasi Monte Carlo and Global Sensitivity Analysis

We review and apply Quasi Monte Carlo (QMC) and Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) techniques to pricing and risk management (greeks) of representative financial instruments of increasing complexity. We compare QMC vs standard Monte Carlo (MC) results in great detail, using high-dimensional Sobol' low discrepancy sequences, different discretization methods, and specific analyses of convergence, performance, speed up, stability, and error optimization for finite differences greeks. We find that our QMC outperforms MC in most cases, including the highest-dimensional simulations and greeks calculations, showing faster and more stable convergence to exact or almost exact results. Using GSA, we are able to fully explain our findings in terms of reduced effective dimension of our QMC simulation, allowed in most cases, but not always, by Brownian bridge discretization. We conclude that, beyond pricing, QMC is a very promising technique also for computing risk figures, greeks in particular, as it allows to reduce the computational effort of high-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations typical of modern risk management.Comment: 43 pages, 21 figures, 6 table

Monte Carlo evaluation of sensitivities in computational finance

In computational finance, Monte Carlo simulation is used to compute the correct prices for financial options. More important, however, is the ability to compute the so-called "Greeks'', the first and second order derivatives of the prices with respect to input parameters such as the current asset price, interest rate and level of volatility.\ud \ud This paper discusses the three main approaches to computing Greeks: finite difference, likelihood ratio method (LRM) and pathwise sensitivity calculation. The last of these has an adjoint implementation with a computational cost which is independent of the number of first derivatives to be calculated. We explain how the practical development of adjoint codes is greatly assisted by using Algorithmic Differentiation, and in particular discuss the performance achieved by the FADBAD++ software package which is based on templates and operator overloading within C++.\ud \ud The pathwise approach is not applicable when the financial payoff function is not differentiable, and even when the payoff is differentiable, the use of scripting in real-world implementations means it can be very difficult in practice to evaluate the derivative of very complex financial products. A new idea is presented to address these limitations by combining the adjoint pathwise approach for the stochastic path evolution with LRM for the payoff evaluation

Option Pricing with Orthogonal Polynomial Expansions

We derive analytic series representations for European option prices in polynomial stochastic volatility models. This includes the Jacobi, Heston, Stein-Stein, and Hull-White models, for which we provide numerical case studies. We find that our polynomial option price series expansion performs as efficiently and accurately as the Fourier transform based method in the nested affine cases. We also derive and numerically validate series representations for option Greeks. We depict an extension of our approach to exotic options whose payoffs depend on a finite number of prices.Comment: forthcoming in Mathematical Finance, 38 pages, 3 tables, 7 figure

Computing Greeks using multilevel path simulation

We investigate the extension of the multilevel Monte Carlo method [2, 3] to the calculation of Greeks. The pathwise sensitivity analysis [5] differentiates the path evolution and effectively reduces the smoothness of the payoff. This leads to new challenges: the use of naive algorithms is often impossible because of the inapplicability of pathwise sensitivities to discontinuous payoffs.\ud \ud These challenges can be addressed in three different ways: payoff smoothing using conditional expectations of the payoff before maturity [5]; an approximation of the above technique using path splitting for the final timestep [1]; the use of a hybrid combination of pathwise sensitivity and the Likelihood Ratio Method [4]. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of these alternatives in different multilevel Monte Carlo settings

Multilevel Monte Carlo methods for applications in finance

Since Giles introduced the multilevel Monte Carlo path simulation method [18], there has been rapid development of the technique for a variety of applications in computational finance. This paper surveys the progress so far, highlights the key features in achieving a high rate of multilevel variance convergence, and suggests directions for future research.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1202.6283; and with arXiv:1106.4730 by other author

Smoking Adjoints: fast evaluation of Greeks in Monte Carlo calculations

This paper presents an adjoint method to accelerate the calculation of Greeks by Monte Carlo simulation. The method calculates price sensitivities along each path; but in contrast to a forward pathwise calculation, it works backward recursively using adjoint variables. Along each path, the forward and adjoint implementations produce the same values, but the adjoint method rearranges the calculations to generate potential computational savings. The adjoint method outperforms a forward implementation in calculating the sensitivities of a small number of outputs to a large number of inputs. This applies, for example, in estimating the sensitivities of an interest rate derivatives book to multiple points along an initial forward curve or the sensitivities of an equity derivatives book to multiple points on a volatility surface. We illustrate the application of the method in the setting of the LIBOR market model. Numerical results confirm that the computational advantage of the adjoint method grows in proportion to the number of initial forward rates

Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Option Pricing

In the following paper we provide a review and development of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods for option pricing. SMC are a class of Monte Carlo-based algorithms, that are designed to approximate expectations w.r.t a sequence of related probability measures. These approaches have been used, successfully, for a wide class of applications in engineering, statistics, physics and operations research. SMC methods are highly suited to many option pricing problems and sensitivity/Greek calculations due to the nature of the sequential simulation. However, it is seldom the case that such ideas are explicitly used in the option pricing literature. This article provides an up-to date review of SMC methods, which are appropriate for option pricing. In addition, it is illustrated how a number of existing approaches for option pricing can be enhanced via SMC. Specifically, when pricing the arithmetic Asian option w.r.t a complex stochastic volatility model, it is shown that SMC methods provide additional strategies to improve estimation.Comment: 37 Pages, 2 Figure

Adjoint methods for computing sensitivities in local volatility surfaces

In this paper we present the adjoint method of computing sensitivities of option prices with respect to nodes in the local volatility surface. We first introduce the concept of algorithmic differentiation and how it relates to\ud path-wise sensitivity computations within a Monte Carlo framework. We explain the two approaches available: forward mode and adjoint mode. We illustrate these concepts on the simple example of a model with a geometric Brownian motion driving the underlying price process, for which\ud we compute the Delta and Vega in forward and adjoint mode. We then go on to explain in full detail how to apply these ideas to a model where the underlying has a volatility term defined by a local volatility surface. We provide source codes for both the simple and the more complex case and\ud analyze numerical results to show the strengths of the adjoint approach