決定木・回帰木のための多変量判別ルール発見アルゴリズム

広島大学(Hiroshima University)博士(工学)Engineeringdoctora

A COLLABORATIVE FILTERING APPROACH TO PREDICT WEB PAGES OF INTEREST FROMNAVIGATION PATTERNS OF PAST USERS WITHIN AN ACADEMIC WEBSITE

This dissertation is a simulation study of factors and techniques involved in designing hyperlink recommender systems that recommend to users, web pages that past users with similar navigation behaviors found interesting. The methodology involves identification of pertinent factors or techniques, and for each one, addresses the following questions: (a) room for improvement; (b) better approach, if any; and (c) performance characteristics of the technique in environments that hyperlink recommender systems operate in. The following four problems are addressed:Web Page Classification. A new metric (PageRank × Inverse Links-to-Word count ratio) is proposed for classifying web pages as content or navigation, to help in the discovery of user navigation behaviors from web user access logs. Results of a small user study suggest that this metric leads to desirable results.Data Mining. A new apriori algorithm for mining association rules from large databases is proposed. The new algorithm addresses the problem of scaling of the classical apriori algorithm by eliminating an expensive joinstep, and applying the apriori property to every row of the database. In this study, association rules show the correlation relationships between user navigation behaviors and web pages they find interesting. The new algorithm has better space complexity than the classical one, and better time efficiency under some conditionsand comparable time efficiency under other conditions.Prediction Models for User Interests. We demonstrate that association rules that show the correlation relationships between user navigation patterns and web pages they find interesting can be transformed intocollaborative filtering data. We investigate collaborative filtering prediction models based on two approaches for computing prediction scores: using simple averages and weighted averages. Our findings suggest that theweighted averages scheme more accurately computes predictions of user interests than the simple averages scheme does.Clustering. Clustering techniques are frequently applied in the design of personalization systems. We studied the performance of the CLARANS clustering algorithm in high dimensional space in relation to the PAM and CLARA clustering algorithms. While CLARA had the best time performance, CLARANS resulted in clusterswith the lowest intra-cluster dissimilarities, and so was most effective in this regard

An association rule dynamics and classification approach to event detection and tracking in Twitter.

Twitter is a microblogging application used for sending and retrieving instant on-line messages of not more than 140 characters. There has been a surge in Twitter activities since its launch in 2006 as well as steady increase in event detection research on Twitter data (tweets) in recent years. With 284 million monthly active users Twitter has continued to grow both in size and activity. The network is rapidly changing the way global audience source for information and influence the process of journalism [Newman, 2009]. Twitter is now perceived as an information network in addition to being a social network. This explains why traditional news media follow activities on Twitter to enhance their news reports and news updates. Knowing the significance of the network as an information dissemination platform, news media subscribe to Twitter accounts where they post their news headlines and include the link to their on-line news where the full story may be found. Twitter users in some cases, post breaking news on the network before such news are published by traditional news media. This can be ascribed to Twitter subscribers' nearness to location of events. The use of Twitter as a network for information dissemination as well as for opinion expression by different entities is now common. This has also brought with it the issue of computational challenges of extracting newsworthy contents from Twitter noisy data. Considering the enormous volume of data Twitter generates, users append the hashtag (#) symbol as prefix to keywords in tweets. Hashtag labels describe the content of tweets. The use of hashtags also makes it easy to search for and read tweets of interest. The volume of Twitter streaming data makes it imperative to derive Topic Detection and Tracking methods to extract newsworthy topics from tweets. Since hashtags describe and enhance the readability of tweets, this research is developed to show how the appropriate use of hashtags keywords in tweets can demonstrate temporal evolvements of related topic in real-life and consequently enhance Topic Detection and Tracking on Twitter network. We chose to apply our method on Twitter network because of the restricted number of characters per message and for being a network that allows sharing data publicly. More importantly, our choice was based on the fact that hashtags are an inherent component of Twitter. To this end, the aim of this research is to develop, implement and validate a new approach that extracts newsworthy topics from tweets' hashtags of real-life topics over a specified period using Association Rule Mining. We termed our novel methodology Transaction-based Rule Change Mining (TRCM). TRCM is a system built on top of the Apriori method of Association Rule Mining to extract patterns of Association Rules changes in tweets hashtag keywords at different periods of time and to map the extracted keywords to related real-life topic or scenario. To the best of our knowledge, the adoption of dynamics of Association Rules of hashtag co-occurrences has not been explored as a Topic Detection and Tracking method on Twitter. The application of Apriori to hashtags present in tweets at two consecutive period t and t + 1 produces two association rulesets, which represents rules evolvement in the context of this research. A change in rules is discovered by matching every rule in ruleset at time t with those in ruleset at time t + 1. The changes are grouped under four identified rules namely 'New' rules, 'Unexpected Consequent' and 'Unexpected Conditional' rules, 'Emerging' rules and 'Dead' rules. The four rules represent different levels of topic real-life evolvements. For example, the emerging rule represents very important occurrence such as breaking news, while unexpected rules represents unexpected twist of event in an on-going topic. The new rule represents dissimilarity in rules in rulesets at time t and t+1. Finally, the dead rule represents topic that is no longer present on the Twitter network. TRCM revealed the dynamics of Association Rules present in tweets and demonstrates the linkage between the different types of rule dynamics to targeted real-life topics/events. In this research, we conducted experimental studies on tweets from different domains such as sports and politics to test the performance effectiveness of our method. We validated our method, TRCM with carefully chosen ground truth. The outcome of our research experiments include: Identification of 4 rule dynamics in tweets' hashtags namely: New rules, Emerging rules, Unexpected rules and 'Dead' rules using Association Rule Mining. These rules signify how news and events evolved in real-life scenario. Identification of rule evolvements on Twitter network using Rule Trend Analysis and Rule Trace. Detection and tracking of topic evolvements on Twitter using Transaction-based Rule Change Mining TRCM. Identification of how the peculiar features of each TRCM rules affect their performance effectiveness on real datasets

Predictive Modelling of Retail Banking Transactions for Credit Scoring, Cross-Selling and Payment Pattern Discovery

Evaluating transactional payment behaviour offers a competitive advantage in the modern payment ecosystem, not only for confirming the presence of good credit applicants or unlocking the cross-selling potential between the respective product and service portfolios of financial institutions, but also to rule out bad credit applicants precisely in transactional payments streams. In a diagnostic test for analysing the payment behaviour, I have used a hybrid approach comprising a combination of supervised and unsupervised learning algorithms to discover behavioural patterns. Supervised learning algorithms can compute a range of credit scores and cross-sell candidates, although the applied methods only discover limited behavioural patterns across the payment streams. Moreover, the performance of the applied supervised learning algorithms varies across the different data models and their optimisation is inversely related to the pre-processed dataset. Subsequently, the research experiments conducted suggest that the Two-Class Decision Forest is an effective algorithm to determine both the cross-sell candidates and creditworthiness of their customers. In addition, a deep-learning model using neural network has been considered with a meaningful interpretation of future payment behaviour through categorised payment transactions, in particular by providing additional deep insights through graph-based visualisations. However, the research shows that unsupervised learning algorithms play a central role in evaluating the transactional payment behaviour of customers to discover associations using market basket analysis based on previous payment transactions, finding the frequent transactions categories, and developing interesting rules when each transaction category is performed on the same payment stream. Current research also reveals that the transactional payment behaviour analysis is multifaceted in the financial industry for assessing the diagnostic ability of promotion candidates and classifying bad credit applicants from among the entire customer base. The developed predictive models can also be commonly used to estimate the credit risk of any credit applicant based on his/her transactional payment behaviour profile, combined with deep insights from the categorised payment transactions analysis. The research study provides a full review of the performance characteristic results from different developed data models. Thus, the demonstrated data science approach is a possible proof of how machine learning models can be turned into cost-sensitive data models

Advances in knowledge discovery and data mining Part II

19th Pacific-Asia Conference, PAKDD 2015, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, May 19-22, 2015, Proceedings, Part II</p

Quality and interestingness of association rules derived from data mining of relational and semi-structured data

Deriving useful and interesting rules from a data mining system are essential and important tasks. Problems such as the discovery of random and coincidental patterns or patterns with no significant values, and the generation of a large volume of rules from a database commonly occur. Works on sustaining the interestingness of rules generated by data mining algorithms are actively and constantly being examined and developed. As the data mining techniques are data-driven, it is beneficial to affirm the rules using a statistical approach. It is important to establish the ways in which the existing statistical measures and constraint parameters can be effectively utilized and the sequence of their usage.In this thesis, a systematic way to evaluate the association rules discovered from frequent, closed and maximal itemset mining algorithms; and frequent subtree mining algorithm including the rules based on induced, embedded and disconnected subtrees is presented. With reference to the frequent subtree mining, in addition a new direction is explored based on utilizing the DSM approach capable of preserving all information from tree-structured database in a flat data format, consequently enabling the direct application of a wider range of data mining analysis/techniques to tree-structured data. Implications of this approach were investigated and it was found that basing rules on disconnected subtrees, can be useful in terms of increasing the accuracy and the coverage rate of the rule set.A strategy that combines data mining and statistical measurement techniques such as sampling, redundancy and contradictive checks, correlation and regression analysis to evaluate the rules is developed. This framework is then applied to real-world datasets that represent diverse characteristics of data/items. Empirical results show that with a proper combination of data mining and statistical analysis, the proposed framework is capable of eliminating a large number of non-significant, redundant and contradictive rules while preserving relatively valuable high accuracy rules. Moreover, the results reveal the important characteristics and differences between mining frequent, closed or maximal itemsets; and mining frequent subtree including the rules based on induced, embedded and disconnected subtrees; as well as the impact of confidence measure for the prediction and classification task

An Evaluation of the Use of Diversity to Improve the Accuracy of Predicted Ratings in Recommender Systems

The diversity; versus accuracy trade off, has become an important area of research within recommender systems as online retailers attempt to better serve their customers and gain a competitive advantage through an improved customer experience. This dissertation attempted to evaluate the use of diversity measures in predictive models as a means of improving predicted ratings. Research literature outlines a number of influencing factors such as personality, taste, mood and social networks in addition to approaches to the diversity challenge post recommendation. A number of models were applied included DecisionStump, Linear Regression, J48 Decision Tree and Naive Bayes. Various evaluation metrics such as precision, recall, ROC area, mean squared error and correlation coefficient were used to evaluate the model types. The results were below a benchmark selected during the literature review. The experiment did not demonstrate that diversity measures as inputs improve the accuracy of predicted ratings. However, the evaluation results for the model without diversity measures were low also and comparable to those with diversity indicating that further research in this area may be worthwhile. While the experiment conducted did not clearly demonstrate that the inclusion of diversity measures as inputs improve the accuracy of predicted ratings, approaches to data extraction, pre-processing, and model selection could inform further research. Areas of further research identified within this paper may also add value for those interested in this topic

Algorithms for finding orders and analyzing sets of chains

Rankings of items are a useful concept in a variety of applications, such as clickstream analysis, some voting methods, bioinformatics, and other fields of science such as paleontology. This thesis addresses two problems related to such data. The first problem is about finding orders, while the second one is about analyzing sets of orders. We address two different tasks in the problem of finding orders. We can find orders either by computing an aggregate of a set of known orders, or by constructing an order for a previously unordered data set. For the first task we show that bucket orders, a subclass of partial orders, are a useful structure for summarizing sets of orders. We formulate an optimization problem for finding such partial orders, show that it is NP-hard, and give an efficient randomized algorithm for finding approximate solutions to it. Moreover, we show that the expected cost of a solution found by the randomized algorithm differs from the optimal solution only by a constant factor. For the second approach we propose a simple method for sampling orders for 0–1 vectors that is based on the consecutive ones property. For analyzing orders, we discuss three different methods. First, we give an algorithm for clustering sets of orders. The algorithm is a variant of Lloyd's iteration for solving the k-means problem. We also give two different approaches for mapping orders to vectors in a high-dimensional Euclidean space. These mappings are used on one hand for clustering, and on the other hand for creating two dimensional visualizations (scatterplots) for sets of orders. Finally, we discuss randomization testing in case of orders. To this end we propose an MCMC algorithm for creating random sets of orders that preserve certain well defined properties of a given set of orders. The random data sets can be used to assess the statistical significance of the results obtained e.g. by clustering