A review on Day-Ahead Solar Energy Prediction

Accurate day-ahead prediction of solar energy plays a vital role in the planning of supply and demand in a power grid system. The previous study shows predictions based on weather forecasts composed of numerical text data. They can reflect temporal factors therefore the data versus the result might not always give the most accurate and precise results. That is why incorporating different methods and techniques which enhance accuracy is an important topic. An in-depth review of current deep learning-based forecasting models for renewable energy is provided in this paper

Wind Power Forecasting Methods Based on Deep Learning: A Survey

Accurate wind power forecasting in wind farm can effectively reduce the enormous impact on grid operation safety when high permeability intermittent power supply is connected to the power grid. Aiming to provide reference strategies for relevant researchers as well as practical applications, this paper attempts to provide the literature investigation and methods analysis of deep learning, enforcement learning and transfer learning in wind speed and wind power forecasting modeling. Usually, wind speed and wind power forecasting around a wind farm requires the calculation of the next moment of the definite state, which is usually achieved based on the state of the atmosphere that encompasses nearby atmospheric pressure, temperature, roughness, and obstacles. As an effective method of high-dimensional feature extraction, deep neural network can theoretically deal with arbitrary nonlinear transformation through proper structural design, such as adding noise to outputs, evolutionary learning used to optimize hidden layer weights, optimize the objective function so as to save information that can improve the output accuracy while filter out the irrelevant or less affected information for forecasting. The establishment of high-precision wind speed and wind power forecasting models is always a challenge due to the randomness, instantaneity and seasonal characteristics

Energy Management in Microgrids: A Combination of Game Theory and Big Data‐Based Wind Power Forecasting

Energy internet provides an open framework for integrating every piece of equipment involved in energy generation, transmission, transformation, distribution, and consumption with novel information and communication technologies. In this chapter, the authors adopt a combination of game theory and big data to address the coordinated management of renewable and traditional energy, which is a typical issue on energy interconnections. The authors formulate the energy management problem as a three‐stage Stackelberg game and employ the backward induction method to derive the closed‐form expressions of the optimal strategies. Next, we study the big data‐based power generation forecasting techniques and introduce a scheme of the wind power forecasting, which can assist the microgrid to make strategies. Simulation results show that more accurate prediction results of wind power are conducive to better energy management

Application of probabilistic deep learning models to simulate thermal power plant processes

Deep learning has gained traction in thermal engineering due to its applications to process simulations, the deeper insights it can provide and its abilities to circumvent the shortcomings of classic thermodynamic simulation approaches by capturing complex inter-dependencies. This works sets out to apply probabilistic deep learning to power plant operations using historic plant data. The first study presented, entails the development of a steady-state mixture density network (MDN) capable of predicting effective heat transfer coefficients (HTC) for the various heat exchanger components inside a utility scale boiler. Selected directly controllable input features, including the excess air ratio, steam temperatures, flow rates and pressures are used to predict the HTCs. In the second case study, an encoder-decoder mixturedensity network (MDN) is developed using recurrent neural networks (RNN) for the prediction of utility-scale air-cooled condenser (ACC) backpressure. The effects of ambient conditions and plant operating parameters, such as extraction flow rate, on ACC performance is investigated. In both case studies, hyperparameter searches are done to determine the best performing architectures for these models. Comparisons are drawn between the MDN model versus standard model architecture in both case studies. The HTC predictor model achieved 90% accuracy which equates to an average error of 4.89 W m2K across all heat exchangers. The resultant time-series ACC model achieved an average error of 3.14 kPa, which translate into a model accuracy of 82%

An Ensemble Approach for Multi-Step Ahead Energy Forecasting of Household Communities

This paper addresses the estimation of household communities' overall energy usage and solar energy production, considering different prediction horizons. Forecasting the electricity demand and energy generation of communities can help enrich the information available to energy grid operators to better plan their short-term supply. Moreover, households will increasingly need to know more about their usage and generation patterns to make wiser decisions on their appliance usage and energy-trading programs. The main issues to address here are the volatility of load consumption induced by the consumption behaviour and variability in solar output influenced by solar cells specifications, several meteorological variables, and contextual factors such as time and calendar information. To address these issues, we propose a predicting approach that first considers the highly influential factors and, second, benefits from an ensemble learning method where one Gradient Boosted Regression Tree algorithm is combined with several Sequence-to-Sequence LSTM networks. We conducted experiments on a public dataset provided by the Ausgrid Australian electricity distributor collected over three years. The proposed model's prediction performance was compared to those by contributing learners and by conventional ensembles. The obtained results have demonstrated the potential of the proposed predictor to improve short-term multi-step forecasting by providing more stable forecasts and more accurate estimations under different day types and meteorological conditionspublishedVersio

Advanced Methods of Power Load Forecasting

This reprint introduces advanced prediction models focused on power load forecasting. Models based on artificial intelligence and more traditional approaches are shown, demonstrating the real possibilities of use to improve prediction in this field. Models of LSTM neural networks, LSTM networks with a SESDA architecture, in even LSTM-CNN are used. On the other hand, multiple seasonal Holt-Winters models with discrete seasonality and the application of the Prophet method to demand forecasting are presented. These models are applied in different circumstances and show highly positive results. This reprint is intended for both researchers related to energy management and those related to forecasting, especially power load