Optimal Estimation and Prediction for Dense Signals in High-Dimensional Linear Models

Estimation and prediction problems for dense signals are often framed in terms of minimax problems over highly symmetric parameter spaces. In this paper, we study minimax problems over l2-balls for high-dimensional linear models with Gaussian predictors. We obtain sharp asymptotics for the minimax risk that are applicable in any asymptotic setting where the number of predictors diverges and prove that ridge regression is asymptotically minimax. Adaptive asymptotic minimax ridge estimators are also identified. Orthogonal invariance is heavily exploited throughout the paper and, beyond serving as a technical tool, provides additional insight into the problems considered here. Most of our results follow from an apparently novel analysis of an equivalent non-Gaussian sequence model with orthogonally invariant errors. As with many dense estimation and prediction problems, the minimax risk studied here has rate d/n, where d is the number of predictors and n is the number of observations; however, when d is roughly proportional to n the minimax risk is influenced by the spectral distribution of the predictors and is notably different from the linear minimax risk for the Gaussian sequence model (Pinsker, 1980) that often appears in other dense estimation and prediction problems.Comment: 29 pages, 0 figure

Adaptive circular deconvolution by model selection under unknown error distribution

We consider a circular deconvolution problem, in which the density $f$ of a circular random variable $X$ must be estimated nonparametrically based on an i.i.d. sample from a noisy observation $Y$ of $X$. The additive measurement error is supposed to be independent of $X$. The objective of this work was to construct a fully data-driven estimation procedure when the error density $\varphi$ is unknown. We assume that in addition to the i.i.d. sample from $Y$, we have at our disposal an additional i.i.d. sample drawn independently from the error distribution. We first develop a minimax theory in terms of both sample sizes. We propose an orthogonal series estimator attaining the minimax rates but requiring optimal choice of a dimension parameter depending on certain characteristics of $f$ and $\varphi$, which are not known in practice. The main issue addressed in this work is the adaptive choice of this dimension parameter using a model selection approach. In a first step, we develop a penalized minimum contrast estimator assuming that the error density is known. We show that this partially adaptive estimator can attain the lower risk bound up to a constant in both sample sizes $n$ and $m$. Finally, by randomizing the penalty and the collection of models, we modify the estimator such that it no longer requires any previous knowledge of the error distribution. Even when dispensing with any hypotheses on $\varphi$, this fully data-driven estimator still preserves minimax optimality in almost the same cases as the partially adaptive estimator. We illustrate our results by computing minimal rates under classical smoothness assumptions.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/12-BEJ422 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm