Dynamic microsimulation of health care demand, health care finance and the economic impact of health behaviours: survey and review

This paper reviews the issues to be faced in attempting to create a microsimulation of health care demand, health care finance and the economic impact of health behaviour. These issues identified via an in-depth review of seven dynamic microsimulation models, selected from an initial set of 27 models in order to highlight the main differences in approaches and modelling options currently adopted. After presenting a brief description of each of the seven selected models, the main modelling approaches are summarized and critically appraised using five main distinguishing criteria. These criteria are the use of alignment techniques, model complexity (as reflected in the range of variables used), theoretical foundations, type of starting population, and the extent and detail of financial issues covered. Building upon this appraisal, the paper goes on to show how the ‘12 SAGE lessons’ apply in the field of health care microsimulation. The trade-off between complexity and predictive power is shown to be key. Finally an appendix summarises the main features of all 27 of the dynamic microsimulation models originally surveyed.health care, microsimulation

CGE-Microsimulation Modelling: A Survey

This paper reviews the recent work on the application of the CGE-microsimulation models. The discussion focuses on the various linking methodologies and how they can impact our results.Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model; Microsimulation; Poverty; Inequality;

Validating a dynamic population microsimulation model: Recent experience in Australia

Available published research on microsimulation tends to focus on the results of policy simulations rather than upon validation of the models and their outputs. Dynamic population microsimulation models, which age an entire population through time for some decades, create particular validation challenges. This article outlines some of the issues that arise when attempting to validate dynamic population models, including changing behaviour, the need to align results with other aggregate ‘official’ projections, data quality and useability. Drawing on recent experience with the construction of the new Australian Population and Policy Simulation Model (APPSIM), the article discusses the techniques being used to validate this new dynamic population microsimulation model.Dynamic microsimulation, validation, model output, usability

Orcutt’s Vision, 50 years on

Fifty years have passed since the seminal contribution of Guy Orcutt [Orcutt,1957],which gave birth to the field of Microsimulation. We survey, from a methodological perspective, the literature that followed, highlighting its relevance,its pros and cons vis-`a-vis other methodologies and pointing out the main open issues.

The ZEW combined microsimulation-CGE model: innovative tool for applied policy analysis

This contribution describes the linkage of microsimulation models and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models using two already established models called “STSM” and “PACE-L” used by the Centre for European Economic Research. This state of the art research method for applied policy analysis combines the advantages of both model types: On the one hand, microsimulation models allow for detailed labor supply and distributional effects due to policy measures, as individual household data is used. On the other hand, by using a general equilibrium framework, labour market responses, such as wage and labour demand reactions are taken into account. --microsimulation,applied CGE analysis,linked micro-macro models

MICSIM : Concept, Developments and Applications of a PC-Microsimulation Model for Research and Teaching

It is the growing societal interest about the individual and its behaviour in our and 'modern' societies which is asking for microanalyses about the individual situation. In order to allow these microanalyses on a quantitative and empirically based level microsimulation models were developed and increasingly used for economic and social policy impact analyses. Though microsimulation is known and applied (mainly by experts), an easy to use and powerful PC microsimulation model is hard to find. The overall aim of this study and of MICSIM - A PC Microsimulation Model is to describe and offer such a user-friendly and powerful general microsimulation model for (almost) any PC, to support the impact microanalyses both in applied research and teaching. Above all, MICSIM is a general microdata handler for a wide range of typical microanalysis requirements. This paper presents the concept, developments and applications of MICSIM. After some brief remarks on microsimulation characteristics in general, the concept and substantive domains of MICSIM: the simulation, the adjustment and aging, and the evaluation of microdata, are described by its mode of operation in principle. The realisations and developments of MICSIM then are portrayed by the different versions of the computer program. Some MICSIM applications and experiences in research and teaching are following with concluding remarks.Economic and Social Policy Analyses, Microsimulation (dynamic and static), Simulation, Adjustment and Evaluation of Microdata, PC Computer Program for Microanalyses in General

Methods and Tools for the Microsimulation and Forecasting of Household Expenditure

This paper reviews potential methods and tools for the microsimulation and forecasting of household expenditure. It begins with a discussion of a range of approaches to the forecasting of household populations via agent-based modelling tools. Then it evaluates approaches to the modelling of household expenditure. A prototype implementation is described and the paper concludes with an outline of an approach to be pursued in future work

Methods and Tools for the Microsimulation and Forecasting of Household Expenditure - A Review

This paper reviews potential methods and tools for the microsimulation and forecasting of household expenditure. It begins with a discussion of a range of approaches to the forecasting of household populations via agent-based modelling tools. Then it evaluates approaches to the modelling of household expenditure. A prototype implementation is described and the paper concludes with an outline of an approach to be pursued in future work

Editorial - Special Issue on Health

This special issue is a collection of articles that had their origins as papers presented at the 1st General Conference of the International Microsimulation Association (IMA) “Celebrating 50 years of Microsimulation” Vienna, Austria, 20th to 22nd August 2007. The papers all discuss the development and application to policy of dedicated health microsimulation models. These models and applications are testimony to the realisation of Orcutt’s original vision in the late 1950's and early 1960's of applying microsimulation techniques to socio-economic modelling, expanding from the earlier focus on taxation and public transfers into the areas of health and ageing.health, microsimulation

Microsimulation - A Survey of Methods and Applications for Analyzing Economic and Social Policy

This essential dimensions of microsimulation as an instrument to analyze and forecast the individual impacts of alternative economic and social policy measures are surveyed in this study. The basic principles of microsimulation, which is a tool for practical policy advising as well as for research and teaching, are pointed out and the static and dynamic (cross-section and life-cycle) approaches are compared to one another. Present and past developments of microsimulation models and their areas of application are reviewed, focusing on the US, Europe and Australia. Based on general requirements and components of microsimulation models a microsimulation model's actual working mechanism are discussed by a concrete example: the concept and realization of MICSIM, a PC microsimulation model based on a relational database system, an offspring of the Sfb 3 Statitic Microsimulation Model. Common issues of microsimulation modeling are regarded: micro/macro link, behavioural response and the important question of evaluating microsimulation results. The concluding remarks accentuate the increasing use of microcomputers for microsimulation models also for teaching purposes.Microsimulation, Microanalytic Simulation Models, Microanalysis, Economic and Social Policy Analysis