The AtollGame Experience: from Knowledge Engineering to a Computer-Assisted Role Playing Game

This paper presents the methodology developed to collect, understand and merge viewpoints coming from different stakeholders in order to build a shared and formal representation of the studied system dealing with groundwater management in the low-lying atoll of Tarawa (Republic of Kiribati). The methodology relies on three successive stages. First, a Global Targeted Appraisal focuses on social group leaders in order to collect different standpoints and their articulated mental models. These collective models are partly validated through Individual Activities Surveys focusing on behavioural patterns of individual islanders. Then, these models are merged into a single conceptual one using qualitative analysis software. This conceptual model is further simplified in order to create a computer-assisted role-playing game.Knowledge Elicitation, Associative Network, Ontology, Water Management, Pacific, Tarawa

Expert Elicitation for Reliable System Design

This paper reviews the role of expert judgement to support reliability assessments within the systems engineering design process. Generic design processes are described to give the context and a discussion is given about the nature of the reliability assessments required in the different systems engineering phases. It is argued that, as far as meeting reliability requirements is concerned, the whole design process is more akin to a statistical control process than to a straightforward statistical problem of assessing an unknown distribution. This leads to features of the expert judgement problem in the design context which are substantially different from those seen, for example, in risk assessment. In particular, the role of experts in problem structuring and in developing failure mitigation options is much more prominent, and there is a need to take into account the reliability potential for future mitigation measures downstream in the system life cycle. An overview is given of the stakeholders typically involved in large scale systems engineering design projects, and this is used to argue the need for methods that expose potential judgemental biases in order to generate analyses that can be said to provide rational consensus about uncertainties. Finally, a number of key points are developed with the aim of moving toward a framework that provides a holistic method for tracking reliability assessment through the design process.Comment: This paper commented in: [arXiv:0708.0285], [arXiv:0708.0287], [arXiv:0708.0288]. Rejoinder in [arXiv:0708.0293]. Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000510 in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Agent-Based Participatory Simulations: Merging Multi-Agent Systems and Role-Playing Games

In 2001, Olivier Barreteau proposed to jointly use multi-agent systems and role-playing games for purposes of research, training and negotiation support in the field of renewable resource management. This joint use was later labeled the "MAS/RPG methodology" and this approach is one of the foundation stones of the ComMod movement. In this article, we present an alternative method called "agent-based participatory simulations". These simulations are multi-agent systems where human participants control some of the agents. The experiments we conducted prove that it is possible to successfully merge multi-agent systems and role-playing games. We argue that agent-based participatory simulations are also a significant improvement over the MAS/RPG approach, opening new perspectives and solving some of the problems generated by the joint use of role-playing games and multi-agent systems. The advantages are at least threefold. Because all interactions are computer mediated, they can be recorded and this record can be processed and used to improve the understanding of participants and organizers alike. Because of the merge, agent-based participatory simulations decrease the distance between the agent-based model and the behavior of participants. Agent-based participatory simulations allow for computer-based improvements such as the introduction of eliciting assistant agents with learning capabilities.Agent-Based Participatory Simulations, Multi-Agent Systems, Role-Playing Games, Validation, Negotiation Support Tool