A Methodology for Eliciting Information Relevant to Decision Makers

Many information systems have failed to achieve their promised potential because of the inability of the analyst to design a system that was attuned to the needs of the decision maker. To remedy this situation, it is essential to develop tools that facilitate the process of defining distinct decision parameters, understandable by the decision maker, the analyst, and others in the organization. The primary purpose of this paper is to present, develop, and test a methodology for eliciting the information used, or desired to be used, by decision makers in choice-set environments. Additionally, guidelines are suggested for incorporating the methodology into the design of an information system

Marketing authorization procedures for advanced cancer drugs: exploring the views of patients, oncologists, healthcare decision makers and citizens in France

International audienceBackground. The past decades have seen advances in cancer treatments in terms of toxicity and side effects but progress in the treatment of advanced cancer has been modest. New drugs have emerged improving progression free survival but with little impact on overall survival, raising questions about the criteria on which to base decisions to grant marketing authorizations and about the authorization procedure itself. For decisions to be fair, transparent and accountable, it is necessary to consider the views of those with relevant expertise and experience. Methods. We conducted a Q-study to explore the views of a range of stakeholders in France, involving: 54 patients (18 months after diagnosis); 50 members of the general population; 27 oncologists; 19 healthcare decision makers; and 2 individuals from the pharmaceutical industry. Results. Three viewpoints emerged, focussing on different dimensions entitled: 1) ‘Quality of life (QoL), opportunity cost and participative democracy’; 2)‘QoL and patient-centeredness’; and 3) ‘Length of life’. Respondents from all groups were associated with each viewpoint, except for healthcare decision makers, who were only associated with the first one. Conclusion. Our results highlight plurality in the views of stakeholders, emphasize the need for transparency in decision making processes, and illustrate the importance of a re-evaluation of treatments for all 3 viewpoints. In the context of advanced cancer, our results suggest that QoL should be more prominent amongst authorization criteria, as it is a concern for 2 of the 3 viewpoints

Forecasting environmental migration to the United Kingdom, 2010 - 2060: an exploration using Bayesian models

Over the next fifty years the potential impact on human livelihoods of environmental change could be considerable. One possible response may be increased levels of human mobility. This paper offers a first quantification of the levels of environmental migration to the United Kingdom that might be expected. The authors apply Bijak and Wi?niowski’s (2010) methodology for forecasting migration using Bayesian models. They seek to advance the conceptual understanding of forecasting in three ways. First, the paper is believed to be the first time that the Bayesian modelling approach has been attempted in relation to environmental mobility. Second, the paper examines the plausibility of Bayesian modelling of UK immigration by cross-checking expert responses to a Delphi survey with the expectations about environmental mobility evident in the recent research literature. Third, the values and assumptions of the expert evidence provided in the Delphi survey are interrogated to illustrate the limited set of conditions under which the forecasts of environmental mobility, as set out in this paper, are likely to hold

Pairwise comparison matrices and the error-free property of the decision maker

Pairwise comparison is a popular assessment method either for deriving criteria-weights or for evaluating alternatives according to a given criterion. In real-world applications consistency of the comparisons rarely happens: intransitivity can occur. The aim of the paper is to discuss the relationship between the consistency of the decision maker—described with the error-free property—and the consistency of the pairwise comparison matrix (PCM). The concept of error-free matrix is used to demonstrate that consistency of the PCM is not a sufficient condition of the error-free property of the decision maker. Informed and uninformed decision makers are defined. In the first stage of an assessment method a consistent or near-consistent matrix should be achieved: detecting, measuring and improving consistency are part of any procedure with both types of decision makers. In the second stage additional information are needed to reveal the decision maker’s real preferences. Interactive questioning procedures are recommended to reach that goal

Eliciting Preferences for Collectively Financed Health Programmes: the Willingness to Assign Approach

Improving public involvement in health system decision making stands as a primary goal in health systems reform. However, still limited evidence is found on how best to elicit preferences for health care programs. This paper examines a contingent choice technique to elicit preferences among health programs so called, willingness to assign (WTAS). Moreover, we elicited contingent rankings as well as the willingness to pay extra taxes for comparative purposes. We argue that WTAS reveals relative (monetary-based) values of a set of competing public programmes under a hypothetical healthcare budget assessment. Experimental evidence is reported from a deliberative empirical study valuing ten health programmes in the context of the Catalan Health Service. Evidence from a our experimental study reveals that preferences are internally more consistent and slightly less affected by preference reversals as compared to values revealed from the willingness to pay (WTP) extra taxes approach. Consistent with prior studies, we find that the deliberative approach helped to avoid possible misunderstandings. Interestingly, although programmes promoting health received the higher relative valuation, those promoting other health benefits also ranked highly.willingness to assign, willingness to pay, health system benefits

A Participatory Approach to Assess the Effectiveness of Responses to Cope With Flood Risk

This work illustrates the preliminary findings of a participatory research process aimed at identifying responses for sustainable water management in a climate change perspective, in two river basins in Europe and Asia. The paper describes the methodology implemented through local workshops, aimed at eliciting and evaluating possible responses to flood risk. Participatory workshops allowed for the identification of four categories of possible responses and a set of nine evaluation criteria, three for each of the three pillars of sustainable development. The main outcome of such activities consists in the ranking of broad response categories instrumental to the objective of the Brahmatwinn research project, i.e. the identification of Integrated Water Resource Management Strategies (IWRMS) based upon the issues and preferences elicited from local experts. The mDSS tool was used to facilitate transparent and robust management of the information collected through Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and communication of the outputs.Participatory Process, Climate Change, Flood Risk, Decision Support System, Multi Criteria Analysis, MCA, Eliciting Responses, Evaluating Responses, Integrated Water Resources Management, IWRM, Mulino Decision Support System, mDSS

Advancing Alternative Analysis: Integration of Decision Science.

Decision analysis-a systematic approach to solving complex problems-offers tools and frameworks to support decision making that are increasingly being applied to environmental challenges. Alternatives analysis is a method used in regulation and product design to identify, compare, and evaluate the safety and viability of potential substitutes for hazardous chemicals.Assess whether decision science may assist the alternatives analysis decision maker in comparing alternatives across a range of metrics.A workshop was convened that included representatives from government, academia, business, and civil society and included experts in toxicology, decision science, alternatives assessment, engineering, and law and policy. Participants were divided into two groups and prompted with targeted questions. Throughout the workshop, the groups periodically came together in plenary sessions to reflect on other groups' findings.We conclude the further incorporation of decision science into alternatives analysis would advance the ability of companies and regulators to select alternatives to harmful ingredients, and would also advance the science of decision analysis.We advance four recommendations: (1) engaging the systematic development and evaluation of decision approaches and tools; (2) using case studies to advance the integration of decision analysis into alternatives analysis; (3) supporting transdisciplinary research; and (4) supporting education and outreach efforts

The Application of AHP Model to Guide Decision Makers: A Case Study of E-banking Security

Changes in technology have resulted in new ways for bankers to deliver their services to costumers. Electronic banking systems in various forms are the evidence of such advancement. However, information security threats also evolving along this trend. This paper proposes the application of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) methodology to guide decision makers in banking industries to deal with information security policy. The model is structured according aspects of information security policy in conjunction with information security elements. We found that cultural aspect is valued on the top priority among other security aspects, while confidentiality is considered as the most important factor in terms of information security elements.Comment: 5 page

Network Analysis, Creative System Modelling and Decision Support: The NetSyMoD Approach

This paper presents the NetSyMoD approach – where NetSyMod stands for Network Analysis – Creative System Modelling – Decision Support. It represents the outcome of several years of research at FEEM in the field of natural resources management, environmental evaluation and decision-making, within the Natural Resources Management Research Programme. NetSyMoD is a flexible and comprehensive methodological framework, which uses a suite of support tools, aimed at facilitating the involvement of stakeholders or experts in decision-making processes. The main phases envisaged for the process are: (i) the identification of relevant actors, (ii) the analysis of social networks, (iii) the creative system modelling and modelling of the reality being considered (i.e. the local socio-economic and environmental system), and (iv) the analysis of alternative options available for the management of the specific case (e.g. alternative projects, plans, strategies). The strategies for participation are necessarily context-dependent, and thus not all the NetSyMod phases may be needed in every application. Furthermore, the practical solutions for their implementation may significantly differ from one case to another, depending not only on the context, but also on the available resources (human and financial). The various applications of NetSyMoD have nonetheless in common the same approach for problem analysis and communication within a group of actors, based upon the use of creative thinking techniques, the formalisation of human-environment relationships through the DPSIR framework, and the use of multi-criteria analysis through the mDSS software.Social Network, Integrated Analysis, Participatory Modelling, Decision Support