Electrical Vehicles in the Smart Grid: A Mean Field Game Analysis

In this article, we investigate the competitive interaction between electrical vehicles or hybrid oil-electricity vehicles in a Cournot market consisting of electricity transactions to or from an underlying electricity distribution network. We provide a mean field game formulation for this competition, and introduce the set of fundamental differential equations ruling the behavior of the vehicles at the feedback Nash equilibrium, referred here to as the mean field equilibrium. This framework allows for a consistent analysis of the evolution of the price of electricity as well as of the instantaneous electricity demand in the power grid. Simulations precisely quantify those parameters and suggest that significant reduction of the daily electricity peak demand can be achieved by appropriate electricity pricing.Comment: submitted to IEEE Journal on Selected Areas in Communications: Smart Grid Communications Serie

The BARISTA: A model for bid arrivals in online auctions

The arrival process of bidders and bids in online auctions is important for studying and modeling supply and demand in the online marketplace. A popular assumption in the online auction literature is that a Poisson bidder arrival process is a reasonable approximation. This approximation underlies theoretical derivations, statistical models and simulations used in field studies. However, when it comes to the bid arrivals, empirical research has shown that the process is far from Poisson, with early bidding and last-moment bids taking place. An additional feature that has been reported by various authors is an apparent self-similarity in the bid arrival process. Despite the wide evidence for the changing bidding intensities and the self-similarity, there has been no rigorous attempt at developing a model that adequately approximates bid arrivals and accounts for these features. The goal of this paper is to introduce a family of distributions that well-approximate the bid time distribution in hard-close auctions. We call this the BARISTA process (Bid ARrivals In STAges) because of its ability to generate different intensities at different stages. We describe the properties of this model, show how to simulate bid arrivals from it, and how to use it for estimation and inference. We illustrate its power and usefulness by fitting simulated and real data from eBay.com. Finally, we show how a Poisson bidder arrival process relates to a BARISTA bid arrival process.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AOAS117 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org