Distributed agent-based building evacuation simulator

The optimisation of the evacuation of a building plays a fundamental role in emergency situations. The behaviour of individuals, the directions that civilians receive, and the actions of the emergency personnel, will affect the success of the operation. We describe a simulation system that represents the individual, intelligent, and interacting agents that cooperate and compete while evacuating the building. The system also takes into account detailed information about the building and the sensory capabilities that it may contain. Since the level of detail represented in such a simulation can lead to computational needs that grow at least as a polynomial function of the number of the simulated agents, we propose an agent-oriented Distributed Building Evacuation Simulator (DBES). The DBES is integrated with a wireless sensor network which offers a closed loop representation of the evacuation procedure, including the sensed data and the emergency decision making

Survey: Development and analysis of a games-based crisis scenario generation system

Crisis is an infrequent and unpredictable event which is challenging to prepare and resolve. Serious-game approach proved to provide potential support in training and simulating event of real-world crisis situation to different stakeholders. Yet in practice, the approach meets with difficulty on how to setup and utilize different core components such as asset management, crisis scenario generation, agent simulation, real-world constraints, and the evaluation process to yield beneficial information upon running the system. To address this issue, the key question is what can be done to propose a general crisis game-based framework providing necessary core components while generating evaluation result yielding potential analytical data for a crisis management process. Therefore, in this paper, we aim to review and consolidate the existing research on scenario generation techniques and related crisis simulation framework, then to propose novel solution to combine both processes and to derive a desirable scenario content which is also being validated in the simulation framework based on the JADE multi-agent architecture. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016

Present and future resilience research driven by science and technology

Community resilience against major disasters is a multidisciplinary research field that garners an ever-increasing interest worldwide. This paper provides summaries of the discussions held on the subject matter and the research outcomes presented during the Second Resilience Workshop in Nanjing and Shanghai. It, thus, offers a community view of present work and future research directions identified by the workshop participants who hail from Asia – including China, Japan and Korea; Europe and the Americas

Agent-Based Modeling: The Right Mathematics for the Social Sciences?

This study provides a basic introduction to agent-based modeling (ABM) as a powerful blend of classical and constructive mathematics, with a primary focus on its applicability for social science research.� The typical goals of ABM social science researchers are discussed along with the culture-dish nature of their computer experiments. The applicability of ABM for science more generally is also considered, with special attention to physics. Finally, two distinct types of ABM applications are summarized in order to illustrate concretely the duality of ABM: Real-world systems can not only be simulated with verisimilitude using ABM; they can also be efficiently and robustly designed and constructed on the basis of ABM principles. �

Complexity and the Economics of Climate Change: a Survey and a Look Forward

URL des Documents de travail : http://ces.univ-paris1.fr/cesdp/cesdp2016.htmlDocuments de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2016.58 - ISSN : 1955-611XWe provide a survey of the micro and macro economics of climate change from a complexity science perspective and we discuss the challenges ahead for this line of research. We identify four areas of the literature where complex system models have already produced valuable insights: (i) coalition formation and climate negotiations, (ii) macroeconomic impacts of climate-related events, (iii) energy markets and (iv) diffusion of climate-friendly technologies. On each of these issues, accounting for heterogeneity, interactions and disequilibrium dynamics provides a complementary and novel perspective to the one of standard equilibrium models. Furthermore, it highlights the potential economic benefits of mitigation and adaptation policies and the risk of under-estimating systemic climate change-related risks

Method and Approach Mapping of Fair and Balanced Risk and Value-added Distribution in Supply Chains: A Review and Future Agenda

This paper proposes a fair and balanced risk and value-added distribution as a novel approach for collaborative supply chain. The objective of this article is to analyze the existing methods and approaches for risk management, value-adding, risk and revenue sharing to develop a new framework for balancing risk and value-adding in collaborative supply chains. The authors reviewed and synthesized 162 scientific articles which were published between 2001 and 2017 and. The reviewed articles were categorized into supply chain management and performance, risk management, value-added, fair risk and value-added distribution and supply chain negotiation. The potentials identified for future research were the importance of decision-making and sustainability for effectiveness of supply chain risk management. Most previous authors have applied an approach of revenue and risk-- sharing with both decentralized and centralized supply chains to achieve the fair risk and value-added distribution. The dominant methods we found in literature were game theory and complex mathematical formulation. Most literature focused on operation research techniques. We identified a lack of discussion of the intelligent system approach and a potential for future exploration. This paper guide future research and application agenda of fair risk and value-added distribution in supply chain collaboration. We developed a new framework for a fair and balanced risk and value-added distribution model. For a future agenda, we point towards the development of a systematic intelligent system applying soft-computing techniques and knowledge transfer for maintaining sustainable supply chains.Keywords Supply chain collaboration, Fair risk and value-added distribution, Revenue sharing, Risk management, Risk sharin

Complexity and the Economics of Climate Change: A Survey and a Look Forward

Climate change is one of the most daunting challenges human kind has ever faced. In the paper, we provide a survey of the micro and macro economics of climate change from a complexity science perspective and we discuss the challenges ahead for this line of research. We identify four areas of the literature where complex system models have already produced valuable insights: (i) coalition formation and climate negotiations, (ii) macroeconomic impacts of climate-related events, (iii) energy markets and (iv) diffusion of climatefriendly technologies. On each of these issues, accounting for heterogeneity, interactions and disequilibrium dynamics provides a complementary and novel perspective to the one of standard equilibrium models. Furthermore, it highlights the potential economic benefits of mitigation and adaptation policies and the risk of under-estimating systemic climate change-related risks

Game-based Crisis Simulation and Generation Framework: Design and Implementation Structure

Crisis is an infrequent and unpredictable event. Training and preparation process requires tools for representation of crisis context. Particularly, Crisis Event consists of different situations which can occur at the same time combining into complex situation and becoming a challenge in collaboration of several crisis management departments. Studying of Resource distribution also improving an effectively in solving the ongoing crisis. By integrating modern game technology, development process of assistance and simulation system can become a cost-effective solution to allow observation and test practice procedures. Therefore, we aim to discuss and provide an implementation design choices of general framework tool for representing of coverage terrain, resources, different stakeholders and structure of crisis scenario using Unity3D game engine technology. The paper focuses on the procedural generation of complex 3D environment for crisis scenarios generation and disaster management, and introduces the framework, structure, functions and the visualization, and performance evaluation of the framework

A Spatial Dynamic Model of Population Changes in a Vulnerable Coastal Environment

Achieving coastal sustainability in low-lying coastal areas is a great challenge. This study developed a spatial dynamic model to study the coupled natural-human responses in the form of population changes in the Lower Mississippi River Basin region. The goal was to identify the key social-economic factors (utility) and selected environmental factors (such as hazards damage, elevation, and subsidence rate) that affect population changes, as well as how population changes affect the local utility and the local environment reciprocally. The study area was partitioned into the “north’ and the “south” by a hypothetical boundary to test the differences of the emergence. Areal interpolation techniques with volume preserving property were used to integrate all the data acquired from different sources and defined in various formats into a unified 3 km by 3 km cellular space. An Elastic Net model was built to extract the rules and calibrate the parameters. Genetic Algorithms were applied to calibrate the neighborhood effects. A Monte Carlo approach using random sampling was used to conduct the uncertainty analysis. The final model yielded an accuracy of above 97% in projecting both the population changes and the developed area percentage changes from 2000 to 2010. A resilience assessment framework and a sustainability assessment framework were used to examine the simulated results from 2010 to 2050. The low-resilience areas were found to concentrate in the “south” in the central metropolitan areas of New Orleans. The sustainability analysis shows that high-resilience areas will always be sustainable. However, for the low-resilience areas, three sustainability conditions can occur depending on the mitigation budget: the tipping space, the mitigatable space, and the sustainable space. A Relative Land Price concept was defined to indicate the surplus value of a spatial unit due to its population and utility. The low-resilience areas were found to have higher Relative Land Prices mainly due to their high populations. In the short time-period simulation (2010-2050), the “south” will fall behind the “north” in population growth and developed land increase, and its average population was projected to be decreasing. However, in the long time-period simulation (2010-2210), its average population is able to bounce back from a certain population level. The results from this study will shed light on the relationships between coastal hazards and human responses and provide valuable insight into the development of optimal strategies for coastal sustainability