2,585 research outputs found
Effects of Economic Interactions on Credit Risk
We study a credit risk model which captures effects of economic interactions
on a firm's default probability. Economic interactions are represented as a
functionally defined graph, and the existence of both cooperative, and
competitive, business relations is taken into account. We provide an analytic
solution of the model in a limit where the number of business relations of each
company is large, but the overall fraction of the economy with which a given
company interacts may be small. While the effects of economic interactions are
relatively weak in typical (most probable) scenarios, they are pronounced in
situations of economic stress, and thus lead to a substantial fattening of the
tails of loss distributions in large loan portfolios. This manifests itself in
a pronounced enhancement of the Value at Risk computed for interacting
economies in comparison with their non-interacting counterparts.Comment: 24 pages, 6 figure
Derivatives and Credit Contagion in Interconnected Networks
The importance of adequately modeling credit risk has once again been
highlighted in the recent financial crisis. Defaults tend to cluster around
times of economic stress due to poor macro-economic conditions, {\em but also}
by directly triggering each other through contagion. Although credit default
swaps have radically altered the dynamics of contagion for more than a decade,
models quantifying their impact on systemic risk are still missing. Here, we
examine contagion through credit default swaps in a stylized economic network
of corporates and financial institutions. We analyse such a system using a
stochastic setting, which allows us to exploit limit theorems to exactly solve
the contagion dynamics for the entire system. Our analysis shows that, by
creating additional contagion channels, CDS can actually lead to greater
instability of the entire network in times of economic stress. This is
particularly pronounced when CDS are used by banks to expand their loan books
(arguing that CDS would offload the additional risks from their balance
sheets). Thus, even with complete hedging through CDS, a significant loan book
expansion can lead to considerably enhanced probabilities for the occurrence of
very large losses and very high default rates in the system. Our approach adds
a new dimension to research on credit contagion, and could feed into a rational
underpinning of an improved regulatory framework for credit derivatives.Comment: 26 pages, 7 multi-part figure
Large portfolio losses: A dynamic contagion model
Using particle system methodologies we study the propagation of financial
distress in a network of firms facing credit risk. We investigate the
phenomenon of a credit crisis and quantify the losses that a bank may suffer in
a large credit portfolio. Applying a large deviation principle we compute the
limiting distributions of the system and determine the time evolution of the
credit quality indicators of the firms, deriving moreover the dynamics of a
global financial health indicator. We finally describe a suitable version of
the "Central Limit Theorem" useful to study large portfolio losses. Simulation
results are provided as well as applications to portfolio loss distribution
analysis.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AAP544 the Annals of
Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of
Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
The History of the Quantitative Methods in Finance Conference Series. 1992-2007
This report charts the history of the Quantitative Methods in Finance (QMF) conference from its beginning in 1993 to the 15th conference in 2007. It lists alphabetically the 1037 speakers who presented at all 15 conferences and the titles of their papers.
Dynamic analysis of bankruptcy and economic waves
The procedures presented in this paper provide a dynamic apparatus of crediting the industrial operating systems with the assignment to avoid their correlated defaulting, to conserve general safety and soundness and improve its ability to serve as a source for sustainable growth for economy. The quality of operating firms at different periods is evaluated using the migration matrixes between some classes of default risk.credit risk ; economic growth ; regulation
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