Novel models and algorithms for systems reliability modeling and optimization

Recent growth in the scale and complexity of products and technologies in the defense and other industries is challenging product development, realization, and sustainment costs. Uncontrolled costs and routine budget overruns are causing all parties involved to seek lean product development processes and treatment of reliability, availability, and maintainability of the system as a true design parameter . To this effect, accurate estimation and management of the system reliability of a design during the earliest stages of new product development is not only critical for managing product development and manufacturing costs but also to control life cycle costs (LCC). In this regard, the overall objective of this research study is to develop an integrated framework for design for reliability (DFR) during upfront product development by treating reliability as a design parameter. The aim here is to develop the theory, methods, and tools necessary for: 1) accurate assessment of system reliability and availability and 2) optimization of the design to meet system reliability targets. In modeling the system reliability and availability, we aim to address the limitations of existing methods, in particular the Markov chains method and the Dynamic Bayesian Network approach, by incorporating a Continuous Time Bayesian Network framework for more effective modeling of sub-system/component interactions, dependencies, and various repair policies. We also propose a multi-object optimization scheme to aid the designer in obtaining optimal design(s) with respect to system reliability/availability targets and other system design requirements. In particular, the optimization scheme would entail optimal selection of sub-system and component alternatives. The theory, methods, and tools to be developed will be extensively tested and validated using simulation test-bed data and actual case studies from our industry partners

An integrated quantitative framework for supporting product design : the case of metallic moulds for injection

Tese de Doutoramento. Programa Doutoral em Engenharia Industrial e Gestão. Faculdade de Engenharia. Universidade do Porto. 201

Automated system design optimisation

The focus of this thesis is to develop a generic approach for solving reliability design optimisation problems which could be applicable to a diverse range of real engineering systems. The basic problem in optimal reliability design of a system is to explore the means of improving the system reliability within the bounds of available resources. Improving the reliability reduces the likelihood of system failure. The consequences of system failure can vary from minor inconvenience and cost to significant economic loss and personal injury. However any improvements made to the system are subject to the availability of resources, which are very often limited. The objective of the design optimisation problem analysed in this thesis is to minimise system unavailability (or unreliability if an unrepairable system is analysed) through the manipulation and assessment of all possible design alterations available, which are subject to constraints on resources and/or system performance requirements. This thesis describes a genetic algorithm-based technique developed to solve the optimisation problem. Since an explicit mathematical form can not be formulated to evaluate the objective function, the system unavailability (unreliability) is assessed using the fault tree method. Central to the optimisation algorithm are newly developed fault tree modification patterns (FTMPs). They are employed here to construct one fault tree representing all possible designs investigated, from the initial system design specified along with the design choices. This is then altered to represent the individual designs in question during the optimisation process. Failure probabilities for specified design cases are quantified by employing Binary Decision Diagrams (BDDs). A computer programme has been developed to automate the application of the optimisation approach to standard engineering safety systems. Its practicality is demonstrated through the consideration of two systems of increasing complexity; first a High Integrity Protection System (HIPS) followed by a Fire Water Deluge System (FWDS). The technique is then further-developed and applied to solve problems of multi-phased mission systems. Two systems are considered; first an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and secondly a military vessel. The final part of this thesis focuses on continuing the development process by adapting the method to solve design optimisation problems for multiple multi-phased mission systems. Its application is demonstrated by considering an advanced UAV system involving multiple multi-phased flight missions. The applications discussed prove that the technique progressively developed in this thesis enables design optimisation problems to be solved for systems with different levels of complexity. A key contribution of this thesis is the development of a novel generic optimisation technique, embedding newly developed FTMPs, which is capable of optimising the reliability design for potentially any engineering system. Another key and novel contribution of this work is the capability to analyse and provide optimal design solutions for multiple multi-phase mission systems. Keywords: optimisation, system design, multi-phased mission system, reliability, genetic algorithm, fault tree, binary decision diagra

SPEA2-based safety system multi-objective optimization

Safety systems are designed to prevent the occurrence of certain conditions and their future development into a hazardous situation. The consequence of the failure of a safety system of a potentially hazardous industrial system or process varies from minor inconvenience and cost to personal injury, significant economic loss and death. To minimise the likelihood of a hazardous situation, safety systems must be designed to maximise their availability. Therefore, the purpose of this thesis is to propose an effective safety system design optimization scheme. A multi-objective genetic algorithm has been adopted, where the criteria catered for includes unavailability, cost, spurious trip and maintenance down time. Analyses of individual system designs are carried out using the latest advantages of the fault tree analysis technique and the binary decision diagram approach (BDD). The improved strength Pareto evolutionary approach (SPEA2) is chosen to perform the system optimization resulting in the final design specifications. The practicality of the developed approach is demonstrated initially through application to a High Integrity Protection System (HIPS) and subsequently to test scalability using the more complex Firewater Deluge System (FDS). Computer code has been developed to carry out the analysis. The results for both systems are compared to those using a single objective optimization approach (GASSOP) and exhaustive search. The overall conclusions show a number of benefits of the SPEA2 based technique application to the safety system design optimization. It is common for safety systems to feature dependency relationships between its components. To enable the use of the fault tree analysis technique and the BDD approach for such systems, the Markov method is incorporated into the optimization process. The main types of dependency which can exist between the safety system component failures are identified. The Markov model generation algorithms are suggested for each type of dependency. The modified optimization tool is tested on the HIPS and FDS. Results comparison shows the benefit of using the modified technique for safety system optimization. Finally the effectiveness and application to general safety systems is discussed

Model-connected safety cases

Regulatory authorities require justification that safety-critical systems exhibit acceptable levels of safety. Safety cases are traditionally documents which allow the exchange of information between stakeholders and communicate the rationale of how safety is achieved via a clear, convincing and comprehensive argument and its supporting evidence. In the automotive and aviation industries, safety cases have a critical role in the certification process and their maintenance is required throughout a system’s lifecycle. Safety-case-based certification is typically handled manually and the increase in scale and complexity of modern systems renders it impractical and error prone.Several contemporary safety standards have adopted a safety-related framework that revolves around a concept of generic safety requirements, known as Safety Integrity Levels (SILs). Following these guidelines, safety can be justified through satisfaction of SILs. Careful examination of these standards suggests that despite the noticeable differences, there are converging aspects. This thesis elicits the common elements found in safety standards and defines a pattern for the development of safety cases for cross-sector application. It also establishes a metamodel that connects parts of the safety case with the target system architecture and model-based safety analysis methods. This enables the semi- automatic construction and maintenance of safety arguments that help mitigate problems related to manual approaches. Specifically, the proposed metamodel incorporates system modelling, failure information, model-based safety analysis and optimisation techniques to allocate requirements in the form of SILs. The system architecture and the allocated requirements along with a user-defined safety argument pattern, which describes the target argument structure, enable the instantiation algorithm to automatically generate the corresponding safety argument. The idea behind model-connected safety cases stemmed from a critical literature review on safety standards and practices related to safety cases. The thesis presents the method, and implemented framework, in detail and showcases the different phases and outcomes via a simple example. It then applies the method on a case study based on the Boeing 787’s brake system and evaluates the resulting argument against certain criteria, such as scalability. Finally, contributions compared to traditional approaches are laid out

SCADA securing system using deep learning to prevent cyber infiltration

Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems are computer-based control architectures specifically engineered for the operation of industrial machinery via hardware and software models. These systems are used to project, monitor, and automate the state of the operational network through the utilization of ethernet links, which enable two-way communications. However, as a result of their constant connectivity to the internet and the lack of security frameworks within their internal architecture, they are susceptible to cyber-attacks. In light of this, we have proposed an intrusion detection algorithm, intending to alleviate this security bottleneck. The proposed algorithm, the Genetically Seeded Flora (GSF) feature optimization algorithm, is integrated with Transformer Neural Network (TNN) and functions by detecting changes in operational patterns that may be indicative of an intruder’s involvement. The proposed Genetically Seeded Flora Transformer Neural Network (GSFTNN) algorithm stands in stark contrast to the signature-based method employed by traditional intrusion detection systems. To evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithm, extensive experiments are conducted using the WUSTL-IIOT-2018 ICS SCADA cyber security dataset. The results of these experiments indicate that the proposed algorithm outperforms traditional algorithms such as Residual Neural Networks (ResNet), Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) in terms of accuracy and efficiency.© 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed

Optimising cost and availability estimates at the bidding stage of performance-based contracting

Performance-Based Contracting (PBC), e.g. Contracting for Availability (CfA), has been extensively applied in many industry sectors such as defence, aerospace and railway. Under PBC, complex support activities (e.g. maintenance, training, etc.) are outsourced, under mid to long term contracting arrangements, to maintain certain level of systems’ performance (e.g. availability). However, building robust cost and availability estimates is particularly challenging at the bidding stage because therei is lack of methods and limited availability of data for analysis. Driven by this contextual challenge this PhD aims to develop a process to simulate and optimise cost and availability estimates at the bidding stage of CfA. The research methodology follows a human-centred design approach, focusing on the end-user stakeholders. An interaction with seven manufacturing organisations involved in the bidding process of CfA enabled to identify the state-of-practice and the industry needs, and a review of literature in PBC and cost estimation enabled to identify the research gaps. A simulation model for cost and availability trade-off and estimation (CATECAB) has been developed, to support cost engineers during the bidding preparation. Also, a multi-objective genetic algorithm (EMOGA) has been developed to combine with the CATECAB and build a cost and availability estimation and optimisation model (CAEOCAB). Techniques such as Monte-Carlo simulation, bootstrapping resampling, multi-regression analysis and genetic algorithms have been applied. This model is able to estimate the optimal investment in the attributes that impact the availability of the systems, according to total contract cost, availability and duration targets. The validation of the models is performed by means of four case studies with twenty-one CfA scenarios, in the maritime and air domains. The outcomes indicate a representable accuracy for the estimates produced by the models, which has been considered suitable for the early stages of the bidding process

Cross-Layer Rapid Prototyping and Synthesis of Application-Specific and Reconfigurable Many-accelerator Platforms

Technological advances of recent years laid the foundation consolidation of informatisationof society, impacting on economic, political, cultural and socialdimensions. At the peak of this realization, today, more and more everydaydevices are connected to the web, giving the term ”Internet of Things”. The futureholds the full connection and interaction of IT and communications systemsto the natural world, delimiting the transition to natural cyber systems and offeringmeta-services in the physical world, such as personalized medical care, autonomoustransportation, smart energy cities etc. . Outlining the necessities of this dynamicallyevolving market, computer engineers are required to implement computingplatforms that incorporate both increased systemic complexity and also cover awide range of meta-characteristics, such as the cost and design time, reliabilityand reuse, which are prescribed by a conflicting set of functional, technical andconstruction constraints. This thesis aims to address these design challenges bydeveloping methodologies and hardware/software co-design tools that enable therapid implementation and efficient synthesis of architectural solutions, which specifyoperating meta-features required by the modern market. Specifically, this thesispresents a) methodologies to accelerate the design flow for both reconfigurableand application-specific architectures, b) coarse-grain heterogeneous architecturaltemplates for processing and communication acceleration and c) efficient multiobjectivesynthesis techniques both at high abstraction level of programming andphysical silicon level.Regarding to the acceleration of the design flow, the proposed methodologyemploys virtual platforms in order to hide architectural details and drastically reducesimulation time. An extension of this framework introduces the systemicco-simulation using reconfigurable acceleration platforms as co-emulation intermediateplatforms. Thus, the development cycle of a hardware/software productis accelerated by moving from a vertical serial flow to a circular interactive loop.Moreover the simulation capabilities are enriched with efficient detection and correctiontechniques of design errors, as well as control methods of performancemetrics of the system according to the desired specifications, during all phasesof the system development. In orthogonal correlation with the aforementionedmethodological framework, a new architectural template is proposed, aiming atbridging the gap between design complexity and technological productivity usingspecialized hardware accelerators in heterogeneous systems-on-chip and networkon-chip platforms. It is presented a novel co-design methodology for the hardwareaccelerators and their respective programming software, including the tasks allocationto the available resources of the system/network. The introduced frameworkprovides implementation techniques for the accelerators, using either conventionalprogramming flows with hardware description language or abstract programmingmodel flows, using techniques from high-level synthesis. In any case, it is providedthe option of systemic measures optimization, such as the processing speed,the throughput, the reliability, the power consumption and the design silicon area.Finally, on addressing the increased complexity in design tools of reconfigurablesystems, there are proposed novel multi-objective optimization evolutionary algo-rithms which exploit the modern multicore processors and the coarse-grain natureof multithreaded programming environments (e.g. OpenMP) in order to reduce theplacement time, while by simultaneously grouping the applications based on theirintrinsic characteristics, the effectively explore the design space effectively.The efficiency of the proposed architectural templates, design tools and methodologyflows is evaluated in relation to the existing edge solutions with applicationsfrom typical computing domains, such as digital signal processing, multimedia andarithmetic complexity, as well as from systemic heterogeneous environments, suchas a computer vision system for autonomous robotic space navigation and manyacceleratorsystems for HPC and workstations/datacenters. The results strengthenthe belief of the author, that this thesis provides competitive expertise to addresscomplex modern - and projected future - design challenges.Οι τεχνολογικές εξελίξεις των τελευταίων ετών έθεσαν τα θεμέλια εδραίωσης της πληροφοριοποίησης της κοινωνίας, επιδρώντας σε οικονομικές,πολιτικές, πολιτιστικές και κοινωνικές διαστάσεις. Στο απόγειο αυτής τη ςπραγμάτωσης, σήμερα, ολοένα και περισσότερες καθημερινές συσκευές συνδέονται στο παγκόσμιο ιστό, αποδίδοντας τον όρο «Ίντερνετ των πραγμάτων».Το μέλλον επιφυλάσσει την πλήρη σύνδεση και αλληλεπίδραση των συστημάτων πληροφορικής και επικοινωνιών με τον φυσικό κόσμο, οριοθετώντας τη μετάβαση στα συστήματα φυσικού κυβερνοχώρου και προσφέροντας μεταυπηρεσίες στον φυσικό κόσμο όπως προσωποποιημένη ιατρική περίθαλψη, αυτόνομες μετακινήσεις, έξυπνες ενεργειακά πόλεις κ.α. . Σκιαγραφώντας τις ανάγκες αυτής της δυναμικά εξελισσόμενης αγοράς, οι μηχανικοί υπολογιστών καλούνται να υλοποιήσουν υπολογιστικές πλατφόρμες που αφενός ενσωματώνουν αυξημένη συστημική πολυπλοκότητα και αφετέρου καλύπτουν ένα ευρύ φάσμα μεταχαρακτηριστικών, όπως λ.χ. το κόστος σχεδιασμού, ο χρόνος σχεδιασμού, η αξιοπιστία και η επαναχρησιμοποίηση, τα οποία προδιαγράφονται από ένα αντικρουόμενο σύνολο λειτουργικών, τεχνολογικών και κατασκευαστικών περιορισμών. Η παρούσα διατριβή στοχεύει στην αντιμετώπιση των παραπάνω σχεδιαστικών προκλήσεων, μέσω της ανάπτυξης μεθοδολογιών και εργαλείων συνσχεδίασης υλικού/λογισμικού που επιτρέπουν την ταχεία υλοποίηση καθώς και την αποδοτική σύνθεση αρχιτεκτονικών λύσεων, οι οποίες προδιαγράφουν τα μετα-χαρακτηριστικά λειτουργίας που απαιτεί η σύγχρονη αγορά. Συγκεκριμένα, στα πλαίσια αυτής της διατριβής, παρουσιάζονται α) μεθοδολογίες επιτάχυνσης της ροής σχεδιασμού τόσο για επαναδιαμορφούμενες όσο και για εξειδικευμένες αρχιτεκτονικές, β) ετερογενή αδρομερή αρχιτεκτονικά πρότυπα επιτάχυνσης επεξεργασίας και επικοινωνίας και γ) αποδοτικές τεχνικές πολυκριτηριακής σύνθεσης τόσο σε υψηλό αφαιρετικό επίπεδο προγραμματισμού,όσο και σε φυσικό επίπεδο πυριτίου.Αναφορικά προς την επιτάχυνση της ροής σχεδιασμού, προτείνεται μια μεθοδολογία που χρησιμοποιεί εικονικές πλατφόρμες, οι οποίες αφαιρώντας τις αρχιτεκτονικές λεπτομέρειες καταφέρνουν να μειώσουν σημαντικά το χρόνο εξομοίωσης. Παράλληλα, εισηγείται η συστημική συν-εξομοίωση με τη χρήση επαναδιαμορφούμενων πλατφορμών, ως μέσων επιτάχυνσης. Με αυτόν τον τρόπο, ο κύκλος ανάπτυξης ενός προϊόντος υλικού, μετατεθειμένος από την κάθετη σειριακή ροή σε έναν κυκλικό αλληλεπιδραστικό βρόγχο, καθίσταται ταχύτερος, ενώ οι δυνατότητες προσομοίωσης εμπλουτίζονται με αποδοτικότερες μεθόδους εντοπισμού και διόρθωσης σχεδιαστικών σφαλμάτων, καθώς και μεθόδους ελέγχου των μετρικών απόδοσης του συστήματος σε σχέση με τις επιθυμητές προδιαγραφές, σε όλες τις φάσεις ανάπτυξης του συστήματος. Σε ορθογώνια συνάφεια με το προαναφερθέν μεθοδολογικό πλαίσιο, προτείνονται νέα αρχιτεκτονικά πρότυπα που στοχεύουν στη γεφύρωση του χάσματος μεταξύ της σχεδιαστικής πολυπλοκότητας και της τεχνολογικής παραγωγικότητας, με τη χρήση συστημάτων εξειδικευμένων επιταχυντών υλικού σε ετερογενή συστήματα-σε-ψηφίδα καθώς και δίκτυα-σε-ψηφίδα. Παρουσιάζεται κατάλληλη μεθοδολογία συν-σχεδίασης των επιταχυντών υλικού και του λογισμικού προκειμένου να αποφασισθεί η κατανομή των εργασιών στους διαθέσιμους πόρους του συστήματος/δικτύου. Το μεθοδολογικό πλαίσιο προβλέπει την υλοποίηση των επιταχυντών είτε με συμβατικές μεθόδους προγραμματισμού σε γλώσσα περιγραφής υλικού είτε με αφαιρετικό προγραμματιστικό μοντέλο με τη χρήση τεχνικών υψηλού επιπέδου σύνθεσης. Σε κάθε περίπτωση, δίδεται η δυνατότητα στο σχεδιαστή για βελτιστοποίηση συστημικών μετρικών, όπως η ταχύτητα επεξεργασίας, η ρυθμαπόδοση, η αξιοπιστία, η κατανάλωση ενέργειας και η επιφάνεια πυριτίου του σχεδιασμού. Τέλος, προκειμένου να αντιμετωπισθεί η αυξημένη πολυπλοκότητα στα σχεδιαστικά εργαλεία επαναδιαμορφούμενων συστημάτων, προτείνονται νέοι εξελικτικοί αλγόριθμοι πολυκριτηριακής βελτιστοποίησης, οι οποίοι εκμεταλλευόμενοι τους σύγχρονους πολυπύρηνους επεξεργαστές και την αδρομερή φύση των πολυνηματικών περιβαλλόντων προγραμματισμού (π.χ. OpenMP), μειώνουν το χρόνο επίλυσης του προβλήματος της τοποθέτησης των λογικών πόρων σε φυσικούς,ενώ ταυτόχρονα, ομαδοποιώντας τις εφαρμογές βάση των εγγενών χαρακτηριστικών τους, διερευνούν αποτελεσματικότερα το χώρο σχεδίασης.Η αποδοτικότητά των προτεινόμενων αρχιτεκτονικών προτύπων και μεθοδολογιών επαληθεύτηκε σε σχέση με τις υφιστάμενες λύσεις αιχμής τόσο σε αυτοτελής εφαρμογές, όπως η ψηφιακή επεξεργασία σήματος, τα πολυμέσα και τα προβλήματα αριθμητικής πολυπλοκότητας, καθώς και σε συστημικά ετερογενή περιβάλλοντα, όπως ένα σύστημα όρασης υπολογιστών για αυτόνομα διαστημικά ρομποτικά οχήματα και ένα σύστημα πολλαπλών επιταχυντών υλικού για σταθμούς εργασίας και κέντρα δεδομένων, στοχεύοντας εφαρμογές υψηλής υπολογιστικής απόδοσης (HPC). Τα αποτελέσματα ενισχύουν την πεποίθηση του γράφοντα, ότι η παρούσα διατριβή παρέχει ανταγωνιστική τεχνογνωσία για την αντιμετώπιση των πολύπλοκων σύγχρονων και προβλεπόμενα μελλοντικών σχεδιαστικών προκλήσεων

Report and papers with guidelines on calibration of urban flood models

Computer modelling offers a sound scientific framework for well-structured analysis and management of urban drainage systems and flooding. Computer models are tools that are expected to simulate the behaviour of the modelled real system with a reasonable level of accuracy. Assurance of accurate representation of reality by a model is obtained through the model calibration. Model calibration is an essential step in modelling. This report present concepts and procedures for calibration and verification of urban flood models. The various stages in the calibration process are presented sequentially. For each stage, a discussion of general concepts is followed by descriptions of process elements. Finally, examples and experiences regarding application of the procedures in the CORFU Barcelona Case Study are presented. Calibration involves not only the adjustment of model parameters but also other activities such as model structural and functional validation, data checking and preparation, sensitivity analysis and model verification, that support and fortify the calibration process as a whole. The objective in calibration is the minimization of differences between model simulated results and observed measurements. This is normally achieved through a manual iterative parameter adjustment process but automatic calibration routines are also available, and combination parameter adjustment methods also exist. The focus of a model calibration exercise is not the same for all types of models. But regardless of the model type, good modelling practice should involve thorough model verification before application. A well-calibrated model can give the assurance that, at least for a range of tested conditions, the model behaves like the real system, and that the model is an accurate and reliable tool that may be used for further analysis. However, calibration could also reveal that the model cannot be calibrated and that the correctness of the model and its suitability as a tool for analysis and management of real-world systems could not be proven. The conceptualisation and simplification of real-world systems and associated processes in modelling inevitably lead to errors and uncertainty. Various modelling components introduce errors such as the input parameters, the model concept, scheme and corresponding model output, and the observed response measurements. Ultimately, the quality of the model as quantified by how much it deviates from reality is an aggregate of the errors that have been brought into it during the modelling process. Thus, it is important to identify the different error sources in a model and also account for and quantify them as part of the modelling.The work described in this publication was supported by the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme through the grant to the budget of CORFU Collaborative Research on Flood Resilience in Urban Areas, Contract 244047