From Social Simulation to Integrative System Design

As the recent financial crisis showed, today there is a strong need to gain "ecological perspective" of all relevant interactions in socio-economic-techno-environmental systems. For this, we suggested to set-up a network of Centers for integrative systems design, which shall be able to run all potentially relevant scenarios, identify causality chains, explore feedback and cascading effects for a number of model variants, and determine the reliability of their implications (given the validity of the underlying models). They will be able to detect possible negative side effect of policy decisions, before they occur. The Centers belonging to this network of Integrative Systems Design Centers would be focused on a particular field, but they would be part of an attempt to eventually cover all relevant areas of society and economy and integrate them within a "Living Earth Simulator". The results of all research activities of such Centers would be turned into informative input for political Decision Arenas. For example, Crisis Observatories (for financial instabilities, shortages of resources, environmental change, conflict, spreading of diseases, etc.) would be connected with such Decision Arenas for the purpose of visualization, in order to make complex interdependencies understandable to scientists, decision-makers, and the general public.Comment: 34 pages, Visioneer White Paper, see http://www.visioneer.ethz.c

Multi-Agent Systems Applications in Energy Optimization Problems: A State-of-the-Art Review

[EN] This article reviews the state-of-the-art developments in Multi-Agent Systems (MASs) and their application to energy optimization problems. This methodology and related tools have contributed to changes in various paradigms used in energy optimization. Behavior and interactions between agents are key elements that must be understood in order to model energy optimization solutions that are robust, scalable and context-aware. The concept of MAS is introduced in this paper and it is compared with traditional approaches in the development of energy optimization solutions. The different types of agent-based architectures are described, the role played by the environment is analysed and we look at how MAS recognizes the characteristics of the environment to adapt to it. Moreover, it is discussed how MAS can be used as tools that simulate the results of different actions aimed at reducing energy consumption. Then, we look at MAS as a tool that makes it easy to model and simulate certain behaviors. This modeling and simulation is easily extrapolated to the energy field, and can even evolve further within this field by using the Internet of Things (IoT) paradigm. Therefore, we can argue that MAS is a widespread approach in the field of energy optimization and that it is commonly used due to its capacity for the communication, coordination, cooperation of agents and the robustness that this methodology gives in assigning different tasks to agents. Finally, this article considers how MASs can be used for various purposes, from capturing sensor data to decision-making. We propose some research perspectives on the development of electrical optimization solutions through their development using MASs. In conclusion, we argue that researchers in the field of energy optimization should use multi-agent systems at those junctures where it is necessary to model energy efficiency solutions that involve a wide range of factors, as well as context independence that they can achieve through the addition of new agents or agent organizations, enabling the development of energy-efficient solutions for smart cities and intelligent buildings

Simulation of the operation of hydro plants in an electricity market using Agent-Based Models

The optimization and simulation of power systemscontinues to be an area of concern for electricity companies andresearchers worldwide namely considering the development ofelectricity markets and competition in the generation activityTherefore generation companies are devoting an increasingattention to market issues justifying the development of modelsto help them preparing bidding strategies to the day-aheadmarket. In this context, agent-based models have been reportedas a complement to optimization and equilibrium models whenthe problem is too complex to be analyzed by traditionalapproaches. This paper details an Agent-Based Model for anelectricity market considering a detailed modeling for hydrostations and presents some preliminary results taking theIberian Electricity Market as an example

Digital Ecosystems: Ecosystem-Oriented Architectures

We view Digital Ecosystems to be the digital counterparts of biological ecosystems. Here, we are concerned with the creation of these Digital Ecosystems, exploiting the self-organising properties of biological ecosystems to evolve high-level software applications. Therefore, we created the Digital Ecosystem, a novel optimisation technique inspired by biological ecosystems, where the optimisation works at two levels: a first optimisation, migration of agents which are distributed in a decentralised peer-to-peer network, operating continuously in time; this process feeds a second optimisation based on evolutionary computing that operates locally on single peers and is aimed at finding solutions to satisfy locally relevant constraints. The Digital Ecosystem was then measured experimentally through simulations, with measures originating from theoretical ecology, evaluating its likeness to biological ecosystems. This included its responsiveness to requests for applications from the user base, as a measure of the ecological succession (ecosystem maturity). Overall, we have advanced the understanding of Digital Ecosystems, creating Ecosystem-Oriented Architectures where the word ecosystem is more than just a metaphor.Comment: 39 pages, 26 figures, journa

Reviewing agent-based modelling of socio-ecosystems: a methodology for the analysis of climate change adaptation and sustainability

The integrated - environmental, economic and social - analysis of climate change calls for a paradigm shift as it is fundamentally a problem of complex, bottom-up and multi-agent human behaviour. There is a growing awareness that global environmental change dynamics and the related socio-economic implications involve a degree of complexity that requires an innovative modelling of combined social and ecological systems. Climate change policy can no longer be addressed separately from a broader context of adaptation and sustainability strategies. A vast body of literature on agent-based modelling (ABM) shows its potential to couple social and environmental models, to incorporate the influence of micro-level decision making in the system dynamics and to study the emergence of collective responses to policies. However, there are few publications which concretely apply this methodology to the study of climate change related issues. The analysis of the state of the art reported in this paper supports the idea that today ABM is an appropriate methodology for the bottom-up exploration of climate policies, especially because it can take into account adaptive behaviour and heterogeneity of the system's components.Review, Agent-Based Modelling, Socio-Ecosystems, Climate Change, Adaptation, Complexity.

A review on farm household modelling with a focus on climate change adaptation and mitigation

This study systematically reviewed the literature to evaluate how suitable existing farm and farm household models are to study aspects of food security in relation to climate change adaptation, risk management and mitigation. We systematically scanned approximately 16,000 research articles covering more than a 1000 models. We found 126 models that met the criteria for subsequent detailed analysis. Although many models use climate as an input, few were used to study climate change adaptation or mitigation at farm level. Promising mixtures of methodologies include mathematical programming for farm level decision-making, dynamic simulation for the production components and agent based modelling for the spread of information and technologies between farmers. There is a need for more explicit farm level analyses with a focus on adaptation, vulnerability and risk. In general terms, this systematic review concludes that there are enough techniques for integrated assessments of farm systems in relation to climate change, adaptation and mitigation, but they have not yet been combined in a way that is meaningful to farm level decision makers