Large-Scale Differentiable Causal Discovery of Factor Graphs

A common theme in causal inference is learning causal relationships between observed variables, also known as causal discovery. This is usually a daunting task, given the large number of candidate causal graphs and the combinatorial nature of the search space. Perhaps for this reason, most research has so far focused on relatively small causal graphs, with up to hundreds of nodes. However, recent advances in fields like biology enable generating experimental data sets with thousands of interventions followed by rich profiling of thousands of variables, raising the opportunity and urgent need for large causal graph models. Here, we introduce the notion of factor directed acyclic graphs (f-DAGs) as a way to restrict the search space to non-linear low-rank causal interaction models. Combining this novel structural assumption with recent advances that bridge the gap between causal discovery and continuous optimization, we achieve causal discovery on thousands of variables. Additionally, as a model for the impact of statistical noise on this estimation procedure, we study a model of edge perturbations of the f-DAG skeleton based on random graphs and quantify the effect of such perturbations on the f-DAG rank. This theoretical analysis suggests that the set of candidate f-DAGs is much smaller than the whole DAG space and thus may be more suitable as a search space in the high-dimensional regime where the underlying skeleton is hard to assess. We propose Differentiable Causal Discovery of Factor Graphs (DCD-FG), a scalable implementation of -DAG constrained causal discovery for high-dimensional interventional data. DCD-FG uses a Gaussian non-linear low-rank structural equation model and shows significant improvements compared to state-of-the-art methods in both simulations as well as a recent large-scale single-cell RNA sequencing data set with hundreds of genetic interventions.Comment: 33 pages, 12 figure

Causal Discovery with Continuous Additive Noise Models

We consider the problem of learning causal directed acyclic graphs from an observational joint distribution. One can use these graphs to predict the outcome of interventional experiments, from which data are often not available. We show that if the observational distribution follows a structural equation model with an additive noise structure, the directed acyclic graph becomes identifiable from the distribution under mild conditions. This constitutes an interesting alternative to traditional methods that assume faithfulness and identify only the Markov equivalence class of the graph, thus leaving some edges undirected. We provide practical algorithms for finitely many samples, RESIT (Regression with Subsequent Independence Test) and two methods based on an independence score. We prove that RESIT is correct in the population setting and provide an empirical evaluation

Structural Agnostic Modeling: Adversarial Learning of Causal Graphs

A new causal discovery method, Structural Agnostic Modeling (SAM), is presented in this paper. Leveraging both conditional independencies and distributional asymmetries in the data, SAM aims at recovering full causal models from continuous observational data along a multivariate non-parametric setting. The approach is based on a game between $d$ players estimating each variable distribution conditionally to the others as a neural net, and an adversary aimed at discriminating the overall joint conditional distribution, and that of the original data. An original learning criterion combining distribution estimation, sparsity and acyclicity constraints is used to enforce the end-to-end optimization of the graph structure and parameters through stochastic gradient descent. Besides the theoretical analysis of the approach in the large sample limit, SAM is extensively experimentally validated on synthetic and real data

Finding Exogenous Variables in Data with Many More Variables than Observations

Many statistical methods have been proposed to estimate causal models in classical situations with fewer variables than observations (p<n, p: the number of variables and n: the number of observations). However, modern datasets including gene expression data need high-dimensional causal modeling in challenging situations with orders of magnitude more variables than observations (p>>n). In this paper, we propose a method to find exogenous variables in a linear non-Gaussian causal model, which requires much smaller sample sizes than conventional methods and works even when p>>n. The key idea is to identify which variables are exogenous based on non-Gaussianity instead of estimating the entire structure of the model. Exogenous variables work as triggers that activate a causal chain in the model, and their identification leads to more efficient experimental designs and better understanding of the causal mechanism. We present experiments with artificial data and real-world gene expression data to evaluate the method.Comment: A revised version of this was published in Proc. ICANN201