30 research outputs found

    Lp-solution to the random linear delay differential equation with stochastic forcing term

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    [EN] This paper aims at extending a previous contribution dealing with the random autonomous-homogeneous linear differential equation with discrete delay tau > 0, by adding a random forcing term f(t) that varies with time: x'(t) = ax(t) + bx(t-tau) + f(t), t >= 0, with initial condition x(t) = g(t), -tau <= t <= 0. The coefficients a and b are assumed to be random variables, while the forcing term f(t) and the initial condition g(t) are stochastic processes on their respective time domains. The equation is regarded in the Lebesgue space L-p of random variables with finite p-th moment. The deterministic solution constructed with the method of steps and the method of variation of constants, which involves the delayed exponential function, is proved to be an L-p-solution, under certain assumptions on the random data. This proof requires the extension of the deterministic Leibniz's integral rule for differentiation to the random scenario. Finally, we also prove that, when the delay tau tends to 0, the random delay equation tends in L-p to a random equation with no delay. Numerical experiments illustrate how our methodology permits determining the main statistics of the solution process, thereby allowing for uncertainty quantification.This work has been supported by the Spanish Ministerio de Economia, Industria y Competitividad (MINECO), the Agencia Estatal de Investigacion (AEI) and Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER UE) grant MTM2017-89664-P.Cortés, J.; Jornet, M. (2020). Lp-solution to the random linear delay differential equation with stochastic forcing term. Mathematics. 8(6):1-16. https://doi.org/10.3390/math8061013S11686Xiu, D., & Karniadakis, G. E. (2004). Supersensitivity due to uncertain boundary conditions. International Journal for Numerical Methods in Engineering, 61(12), 2114-2138. doi:10.1002/nme.1152Casabán, M.-C., Cortés, J.-C., Navarro-Quiles, A., Romero, J.-V., Roselló, M.-D., & Villanueva, R.-J. (2016). A comprehensive probabilistic solution of random SIS-type epidemiological models using the random variable transformation technique. Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, 32, 199-210. doi:10.1016/j.cnsns.2015.08.009Strand, J. . (1970). Random ordinary differential equations. Journal of Differential Equations, 7(3), 538-553. doi:10.1016/0022-0396(70)90100-2Villafuerte, L., Braumann, C. A., Cortés, J.-C., & Jódar, L. (2010). Random differential operational calculus: Theory and applications. Computers & Mathematics with Applications, 59(1), 115-125. doi:10.1016/j.camwa.2009.08.061Cortés, J.-C., Jódar, L., Roselló, M.-D., & Villafuerte, L. (2012). Solving initial and two-point boundary value linear random differential equations: A mean square approach. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 219(4), 2204-2211. doi:10.1016/j.amc.2012.08.066Calatayud, J., Cortés, J.-C., Jornet, M., & Villafuerte, L. (2018). Random non-autonomous second order linear differential equations: mean square analytic solutions and their statistical properties. Advances in Difference Equations, 2018(1). doi:10.1186/s13662-018-1848-8Calatayud, J., Cortés, J.-C., & Jornet, M. (2019). Improving the Approximation of the First- and Second-Order Statistics of the Response Stochastic Process to the Random Legendre Differential Equation. Mediterranean Journal of Mathematics, 16(3). doi:10.1007/s00009-019-1338-6Licea, J. A., Villafuerte, L., & Chen-Charpentier, B. M. (2013). Analytic and numerical solutions of a Riccati differential equation with random coefficients. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, 239, 208-219. doi:10.1016/j.cam.2012.09.040Burgos, C., Calatayud, J., Cortés, J.-C., & Villafuerte, L. (2018). Solving a class of random non-autonomous linear fractional differential equations by means of a generalized mean square convergent power series. Applied Mathematics Letters, 78, 95-104. doi:10.1016/j.aml.2017.11.009Nouri, K., & Ranjbar, H. (2014). Mean Square Convergence of the Numerical Solution of Random Differential Equations. Mediterranean Journal of Mathematics, 12(3), 1123-1140. doi:10.1007/s00009-014-0452-8Calatayud, J., Cortés, J.-C., & Jornet, M. (2019). Random differential equations with discrete delay. Stochastic Analysis and Applications, 37(5), 699-707. doi:10.1080/07362994.2019.1608833Calatayud, J., Cortés, J.-C., & Jornet, M. (2019). Lp\mathrm {L}^p-calculus Approach to the Random Autonomous Linear Differential Equation with Discrete Delay. Mediterranean Journal of Mathematics, 16(4). doi:10.1007/s00009-019-1370-6Caraballo, T., Cortés, J.-C., & Navarro-Quiles, A. (2019). Applying the random variable transformation method to solve a class of random linear differential equation with discrete delay. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 356, 198-218. doi:10.1016/j.amc.2019.03.048Zhou, T. (2014). A Stochastic Collocation Method for Delay Differential Equations with Random Input. Advances in Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 6(4), 403-418. doi:10.4208/aamm.2012.m38Shi, W., & Zhang, C. (2017). Generalized polynomial chaos for nonlinear random delay differential equations. Applied Numerical Mathematics, 115, 16-31. doi:10.1016/j.apnum.2016.12.004Khusainov, D. Y., Ivanov, A. F., & Kovarzh, I. V. (2009). Solution of one heat equation with delay. Nonlinear Oscillations, 12(2), 260-282. doi:10.1007/s11072-009-0075-3Shaikhet, L. (2016). Stability of equilibrium states of a nonlinear delay differential equation with stochastic perturbations. International Journal of Robust and Nonlinear Control, 27(6), 915-924. doi:10.1002/rnc.3605Benhadri, M., & Zeghdoudi, H. (2018). Mean square asymptotic stability in nonlinear stochastic neutral Volterra-Levin equations with Poisson jumps and variable delays. Functiones et Approximatio Commentarii Mathematici, 58(2). doi:10.7169/facm/1657Santonja, F.-J., & Shaikhet, L. (2012). Analysing Social Epidemics by Delayed Stochastic Models. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, 2012, 1-13. doi:10.1155/2012/530472Liu, L., & Caraballo, T. (2018). Analysis of a Stochastic 2D-Navier–Stokes Model with Infinite Delay. Journal of Dynamics and Differential Equations, 31(4), 2249-2274. doi:10.1007/s10884-018-9703-xLupulescu, V., & Abbas, U. (2011). Fuzzy delay differential equations. Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, 11(1), 99-111. doi:10.1007/s10700-011-9112-7Krapivsky, P. L., Luck, J. M., & Mallick, K. (2011). On stochastic differential equations with random delay. Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment, 2011(10), P10008. doi:10.1088/1742-5468/2011/10/p10008GARRIDO-ATIENZA, M. J., OGROWSKY, A., & SCHMALFUSS, B. (2011). RANDOM DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS WITH RANDOM DELAYS. Stochastics and Dynamics, 11(02n03), 369-388. doi:10.1142/s0219493711003358Cortés, J.-C., Villafuerte, L., & Burgos, C. (2017). A Mean Square Chain Rule and its Application in Solving the Random Chebyshev Differential Equation. Mediterranean Journal of Mathematics, 14(1). doi:10.1007/s00009-017-0853-6Cortés, J. C., Jódar, L., & Villafuerte, L. (2007). Numerical solution of random differential equations: A mean square approach. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 45(7-8), 757-765. doi:10.1016/j.mcm.2006.07.017Braumann, C. A., Cortés, J.-C., Jódar, L., & Villafuerte, L. (2018). On the random gamma function: Theory and computing. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, 335, 142-155. doi:10.1016/j.cam.2017.11.045Khusainov, D. Y., & Pokojovy, M. (2015). Solving the Linear 1D Thermoelasticity Equations with Pure Delay. International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences, 2015, 1-11. doi:10.1155/2015/47926

    Study of reactor constitutive model and analysis of nuclear reactor kinetics by fractional calculus approach

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    The diffusion theory model of neutron transport plays a crucial role in reactor theory since it is simple enough to allow scientific insight, and it is sufficiently realistic to study many important design problems. The neutrons are here characterized by a single energy or speed, and the model allows preliminary design estimates. The mathematical methods used to analyze such a model are the same as those applied in more sophisticated methods such as multi-group diffusion theory, and transport theory. The neutron diffusion and point kinetic equations are most vital models of nuclear engineering which are included to countless studies and applications under neutron dynamics. By the help of neutron diffusion concept, we understand the complex behavior of average neutron motion. The simplest group diffusion problems involve only, one group of neutrons, which for simplicity, are assumed to be all thermal neutrons. A more accurate procedure, particularly for thermal reactors, is to split the neutrons into two groups; in which case thermal neutrons are included in one group called the thermal or slow group and all the other are included in fast group. The neutrons within each group are lumped together and their diffusion, scattering, absorption and other interactions are described in terms of suitably average diffusion coefficients and cross-sections, which are collectively known as group constants. We have applied Variational Iteration Method and Modified Decomposition Method to obtain the analytical approximate solution of the Neutron Diffusion Equation with fixed source. The analytical methods like Homotopy Analysis Method and Adomian Decomposition Method have been used to obtain the analytical approximate solutions of neutron diffusion equation for both finite cylinders and bare hemisphere. In addition to these, the boundary conditions like zero flux as well as extrapolated boundary conditions are investigated. The explicit solution for critical radius and flux distributions are also calculated. The solution obtained in explicit form which is suitable for computer programming and other purposes such as analysis of flux distribution in a square critical reactor. The Homotopy Analysis Method is a very powerful and efficient technique which yields analytical solutions. With the help of this method we can solve many functional equations such as ordinary, partial differential equations, integral equations and so many other equations. It does not require enough memory space in computer, free from rounding off errors and discretization of space variables. By using the excellence of these methods, we obtained the solutions which have been shown graphically

    Mean square convergent non-standard numerical schemes for linear random differential equations with delay

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    [EN] In this paper, we are concerned with the construction of numerical schemes for linear random differential equations with discrete delay. For the linear deterministic differential equation with discrete delay, a recent contribution proposed a family of non-standard finite difference (NSFD) methods from an exact numerical scheme on the whole domain. The family of NSFD schemes had increasing order of accuracy, was dynamically consistent, and possessed simple computational properties compared to the exact scheme. In the random setting, when the two equation coefficients are bounded random variables and the initial condition is a regular stochastic process, we prove that the randomized NSFD schemes converge in the mean square (m.s.) sense. M.s. convergence allows for approximating the expectation and the variance of the solution stochastic process. In practice, the NSFD scheme is applied with symbolic inputs, and afterward the statistics are explicitly computed by using the linearity of the expectation. This procedure permits retaining the increasing order of accuracy of the deterministic counterpart. Some numerical examples illustrate the approach. The theoretical m.s. convergence rate is supported numerically, even when the two equation coefficients are unbounded random variables. M.s. dynamic consistency is assessed numerically. A comparison with Euler's method is performed. Finally, an example dealing with the time evolution of a photosynthetic bacterial population is presented.This work has been supported by the Spanish Ministerio de Economia, Industria y Competitividad (MINECO), the Agencia Estatal de Investigacion (AEI) and Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER UE) grant MTM2017-89664-P.Calatayud, J.; Cortés, J.; Jornet, M.; Rodríguez, F. (2020). Mean square convergent non-standard numerical schemes for linear random differential equations with delay. Mathematics. 8(9):1-17. https://doi.org/10.3390/math8091417S11789Bocharov, G. A., & Rihan, F. A. (2000). Numerical modelling in biosciences using delay differential equations. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, 125(1-2), 183-199. doi:10.1016/s0377-0427(00)00468-4Jackson, M., & Chen-Charpentier, B. M. (2017). Modeling plant virus propagation with delays. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, 309, 611-621. doi:10.1016/j.cam.2016.04.024Chen-Charpentier, B. M., & Diakite, I. (2016). A mathematical model of bone remodeling with delays. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, 291, 76-84. doi:10.1016/j.cam.2014.11.025Kyrychko, Y. N., & Hogan, S. J. (2010). On the Use of Delay Equations in Engineering Applications. Journal of Vibration and Control, 16(7-8), 943-960. doi:10.1177/1077546309341100Harding, L., & Neamţu, M. (2016). A Dynamic Model of Unemployment with Migration and Delayed Policy Intervention. Computational Economics, 51(3), 427-462. doi:10.1007/s10614-016-9610-3Mickens, R. E. (2005). Dynamic consistency: a fundamental principle for constructing nonstandard finite difference schemes for differential equations. Journal of Difference Equations and Applications, 11(7), 645-653. doi:10.1080/10236190412331334527Patidar, K. C. (2016). Nonstandard finite difference methods: recent trends and further developments. Journal of Difference Equations and Applications, 22(6), 817-849. doi:10.1080/10236198.2016.1144748García, M. A., Castro, M. A., Martín, J. A., & Rodríguez, F. (2018). Exact and nonstandard numerical schemes for linear delay differential models. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 338, 337-345. doi:10.1016/j.amc.2018.06.029Castro, M. Á., García, M. A., Martín, J. A., & Rodríguez, F. (2019). Exact and Nonstandard Finite Difference Schemes for Coupled Linear Delay Differential Systems. Mathematics, 7(11), 1038. doi:10.3390/math7111038Villafuerte, L., Braumann, C. A., Cortés, J.-C., & Jódar, L. (2010). Random differential operational calculus: Theory and applications. Computers & Mathematics with Applications, 59(1), 115-125. doi:10.1016/j.camwa.2009.08.061Cortés, J.-C., Jódar, L., Roselló, M.-D., & Villafuerte, L. (2012). Solving initial and two-point boundary value linear random differential equations: A mean square approach. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 219(4), 2204-2211. doi:10.1016/j.amc.2012.08.066Calatayud, J., Cortés, J.-C., Jornet, M., & Villafuerte, L. (2018). Random non-autonomous second order linear differential equations: mean square analytic solutions and their statistical properties. Advances in Difference Equations, 2018(1). doi:10.1186/s13662-018-1848-8Calatayud, J., Cortés, J.-C., & Jornet, M. (2019). Improving the Approximation of the First- and Second-Order Statistics of the Response Stochastic Process to the Random Legendre Differential Equation. Mediterranean Journal of Mathematics, 16(3). doi:10.1007/s00009-019-1338-6Licea, J. A., Villafuerte, L., & Chen-Charpentier, B. M. (2013). Analytic and numerical solutions of a Riccati differential equation with random coefficients. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, 239, 208-219. doi:10.1016/j.cam.2012.09.040Burgos, C., Calatayud, J., Cortés, J.-C., & Villafuerte, L. (2018). Solving a class of random non-autonomous linear fractional differential equations by means of a generalized mean square convergent power series. Applied Mathematics Letters, 78, 95-104. doi:10.1016/j.aml.2017.11.009Calatayud, J., Cortés, J.-C., & Jornet, M. (2019). Random differential equations with discrete delay. Stochastic Analysis and Applications, 37(5), 699-707. doi:10.1080/07362994.2019.1608833Calatayud, J., Cortés, J.-C., & Jornet, M. (2019). Lp\mathrm {L}^p-calculus Approach to the Random Autonomous Linear Differential Equation with Discrete Delay. Mediterranean Journal of Mathematics, 16(4). doi:10.1007/s00009-019-1370-6Cortés, J. C., & Jornet, M. (2020). Lp-Solution to the Random Linear Delay Differential Equation with a Stochastic Forcing Term. Mathematics, 8(6), 1013. doi:10.3390/math8061013Caraballo, T., Cortés, J.-C., & Navarro-Quiles, A. (2019). Applying the random variable transformation method to solve a class of random linear differential equation with discrete delay. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 356, 198-218. doi:10.1016/j.amc.2019.03.048Cortés, J. C., Jódar, L., & Villafuerte, L. (2007). Numerical solution of random differential equations: A mean square approach. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 45(7-8), 757-765. doi:10.1016/j.mcm.2006.07.017Cortés, J. C., Jódar, L., & Villafuerte, L. (2007). Mean square numerical solution of random differential equations: Facts and possibilities. Computers & Mathematics with Applications, 53(7), 1098-1106. doi:10.1016/j.camwa.2006.05.030El-Tawil, M. A. (2005). The approximate solutions of some stochastic differential equations using transformations. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 164(1), 167-178. doi:10.1016/j.amc.2004.04.062Calatayud, J., Cortés, J.-C., Díaz, J. A., & Jornet, M. (2019). Density function of random differential equations via finite difference schemes: a theoretical analysis of a random diffusion-reaction Poisson-type problem. Stochastics, 92(4), 627-641. doi:10.1080/17442508.2019.1645849Calatayud, J., Cortés, J.-C., Díaz, J. A., & Jornet, M. (2020). Constructing reliable approximations of the probability density function to the random heat PDE via a finite difference scheme. Applied Numerical Mathematics, 151, 413-424. doi:10.1016/j.apnum.2020.01.012Burgos, C., Cortés, J.-C., Villafuerte, L., & Villanueva, R.-J. (2020). Mean square convergent numerical solutions of random fractional differential equations: Approximations of moments and density. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, 378, 112925. doi:10.1016/j.cam.2020.112925Strand, J. . (1970). Random ordinary differential equations. Journal of Differential Equations, 7(3), 538-553. doi:10.1016/0022-0396(70)90100-2Buckwar, E. (2000). Introduction to the numerical analysis of stochastic delay differential equations. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, 125(1-2), 297-307. doi:10.1016/s0377-0427(00)00475-1Antonio Dorini, F., & Sampaio, R. (2012). Some Results on the Random Wear Coefficient of the Archard Model. Journal of Applied Mechanics, 79(5). doi:10.1115/1.400645

    Models of Delay Differential Equations

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    This book gathers a number of selected contributions aimed at providing a balanced picture of the main research lines in the realm of delay differential equations and their applications to mathematical modelling. The contributions have been carefully selected so that they cover interesting theoretical and practical analysis performed in the deterministic and the stochastic settings. The reader will find a complete overview of recent advances in ordinary and partial delay differential equations with applications in other multidisciplinary areas such as Finance, Epidemiology or Engineerin

    Robust aircraft trajectory optimization under meteorological uncertainty

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    Mención Internacional en el título de doctorThe Air Traffic Management (ATM) system in the busiest airspaces in the world is currently being overhauled to deal with multiple capacity, socioeconomic, and environmental challenges. One major pillar of this process is the shift towards a concept of operations centered on aircraft trajectories (called Trajectory-Based Operations or TBO in Europe) instead of rigid airspace structures. However, its successful implementation (and, thus, the realization of the associated improvements in ATM performance) rests on appropriate understanding and management of uncertainty. Due to its complex socio-technical structure, the design and operations of the ATM system are heavily impacted by uncertainty, proceeding from multiple sources and propagating through the interconnections between its subsystems. One major source of ATM uncertainty is weather. Due to its nonlinear and chaotic nature, a number of meteorological phenomena of interest cannot be forecasted with complete accuracy at arbitrary lead times, which leads to uncertainty or disruption in individual air and ground operations that propagates to all ATM processes. Therefore, in order to achieve the goals of SESAR and similar programs, it is necessary to deal with meteorological uncertainty at multiple scales, from the trajectory prediction and planning processes to flow and traffic management operations. This thesis addresses the problem of single-aircraft flight planning considering two important sources of meteorological uncertainty: wind prediction error and convective activity. As the actual wind field deviates from its forecast, the actual trajectory will diverge in time from the planned trajectory, generating uncertainty in arrival times, sector entry and exit times, and fuel burn. Convective activity also impacts trajectory predictability, as it leads pilots to deviate from their planned route, creating challenging situations for controllers. In this work, we aim to develop algorithms and methods for aircraft trajectory optimization that are able to integrate information about the uncertainty in these meteorological phenomena into the flight planning process at both pre-tactical (before departure) and tactical horizons (while the aircraft is airborne), in order to generate more efficient and predictable trajectories. To that end, we frame flight planning as an optimal control problem, modeling the motion of the aircraft with a point-mass model and the BADA performance model. Optimal control methods represent a flexible and general approach that has a long history of success in the aerospace field. As a numerical scheme, we use direct methods, which can deal with nonlinear systems of moderate and high-dimensional state spaces in a computationally manageable way. Nevertheless, while this framework is well-developed in the context of deterministic problems, the techniques for the solution of practical optimal control problems under uncertainty are not as mature, and the methods proposed in the literature are not applicable to the flight planning problem as it is now understood. The first contribution of this thesis addresses this challenge by introducing a framework for the solution of general nonlinear optimal control problems under parametric uncertainty. It is based on an ensemble trajectory scheme, where the trajectories of the system under multiple scenarios are considered simultaneously within the same dynamical system and the uncertain optimal control problem is turned into a large conventional optimal control problem that can be then solved by standard, well-studied direct methods in optimal control. We then employ this approach to solve the robust flight plan optimization problem at the planning horizon. In order to model uncertainty in the wind and estimating the probability of convective conditions, we employ Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) forecasts, which are composed by multiple predictions instead of a single deterministic one. The resulting method can be used to optimize flight plans for maximum expected efficiency according to the cost structure of the airline; additionally, predictability and exposure to convection can be incorporated as additional objectives. The inherent tradeoffs between these objectives can be assessed with this methodology. The second part of this thesis presents a solution for the rerouting of aircraft in uncertain convective weather scenarios at the tactical horizon. The uncertain motion of convective weather cells is represented with a stochastic model that has been developed from the output of a deterministic satellite-based nowcast product, Rapidly Developing Thunderstorms (RDT). A numerical optimal control framework, based on the pointmass model with the addition of turn dynamics, is employed for optimizing efficiency and predictability of the proposed trajectories in the presence of uncertainty about the future evolution of the storm. Finally, the optimization process is initialized by a randomized heuristic procedure that generates multiple starting points. The combined framework is able to explore and as exploit the space of solution trajectories in order to provide the pilot or the air traffic controller with a set of different suggested avoidance trajectories, as well as information about their expected cost and risk. The proposed methods are tested on example scenarios based on real data, showing how different user priorities lead to different flight plans and what tradeoffs are then present. These examples demonstrate that the solutions described in this thesis are adequate for the problems that have been formulated. In this way, the flight planning process can be enhanced to increase the efficiency and predictability of individual aircraft trajectories, which would lead to higher predictability levels of the ATM system and thus improvements in multiple performance indicators.El sistema de gestión del tráfico aéreo (Air Traffic Management, ATM) en los espacios aéreos más congestionados del mundo está siendo reformado para lidiar con múltiples desafíos socioeconómicos, medioambientales y de capacidad. Un pilar de este proceso es el gradual reemplazo de las estructuras rígidas de navegación, basadas en aerovías y waypoints, hacia las operaciones basadas en trayectorias. No obstante, la implementación exitosa de este concepto y la realización de las ganancias esperadas en rendimiento ATM requiere entender y gestionar apropiadamente la incertidumbre. Debido a su compleja estructura socio-técnica, el diseño y operaciones del sistema ATM se encuentran marcadamente influidos por la incertidumbre, que procede de múltiples fuentes y se propaga por las interacciones entre subsistemas y operadores humanos. Uno de los principales focos de incertidumbre en ATM es la meteorología. Debido a su naturaleza no-linear y caótica, muchos fenómenos de interés no pueden ser pronosticados con completa precisión en cualquier horizonte temporal, lo que crea disrupción en las operaciones en aire y tierra que se propaga a otros procesos de ATM. Por lo tanto, para lograr los objetivos de SESAR e iniciativas análogas, es imprescindible tener en cuenta la incertidumbre en múltiples escalas espaciotemporales, desde la predicción de trayectorias hasta la planificación de flujos y tráfico. Esta tesis aborda el problema de la planificación de vuelo de aeronaves individuales considerando dos fuentes importantes de incertidumbre meteorológica: el error en la predicción del viento y la actividad convectiva. Conforme la realización del viento se desvía de su previsión, la trayectoria real se desviará temporalmente de la planificada, lo que implica incertidumbre en tiempos de llegada a sectores y aeropuertos y en consumo de combustible. La actividad convectiva también tiene un impacto en la predictibilidad de las trayectorias, puesto que obliga a los pilotos a desviarse de sus planes de vuelo para evitarla, cambiado así la situación de tráfico. En este trabajo, buscamos desarrollar métodos y algoritmos para la optimización de trayectorias que puedan integrar información sobre la incertidumbre en estos fenómenos meteorológicos en el proceso de diseño de planes de vuelo en horizontes de planificación (antes del despegue) y tácticos (durante el vuelo), con el objetivo de generar trayectorias más eficientes y predecibles. Con este fin, formulamos la planificación de vuelo como un problema de control óptimo, modelando la dinámica del avión con un modelo de masa puntual y el modelo de rendimiento BADA. El control óptimo es un marco flexible y general con un largo historial de éxito en el campo de la ingeniería aeroespacial. Como método numérico, empleamos métodos directos, que son capaces de manejar sistemas dinámicos de alta dimensión con costes computacionales moderados. No obstante, si bien esta metodología es madura en contextos deterministas, la solución de problemas prácticas de control óptimo bajo incertidumbre en la literatura no está tan desarrollada, y los métodos propuestos en la literatura no son aplicables al problema de interés. La primera contribución de esta tesis hace frente a este reto mediante la introducción de un marco numérico para la resolución de problemas generales de control óptimo no-lineal bajo incertidumbre paramétrica. El núcleo de este método es un esquema de conjunto de trayectorias, en el que las trayectorias del sistema dinámico bajo múltiples escenarios son consideradas de forma simultánea, y el problema de control óptimo bajo incertidumbre es así transformado en un problema convencional que puede ser tratado mediante métodos existentes en control óptimo. A continuación, empleamos este método para resolver el problema de la planificación de vuelo robusta. La incertidumbre en el viento y la probabilidad de ocurrencia de condiciones convectivas son modeladas mediante el uso de previsiones de conjunto o ensemble, compuestas por múltiples predicciones en lugar de una única previsión determinista. Este método puede ser empleado para maximizar la eficiencia esperada de los planes de vuelo de acuerdo a la estructura de costes de la aerolínea; además, la predictibilidad de la trayectoria y la exposición a la convección pueden ser incorporadas como objetivos adicionales. El trade-off entre estos objetivos puede ser evaluado mediante la metodología propuesta. La segunda parte de la tesis presenta una solución para reconducir aviones en escenarios tormentosos en un horizonte táctico. La evolución de las células convectivas es representada con un modelo estocástico basado en las proyecciones de Rapidly Developing Thunderstorms (RDT), un sistema determinista basado en imágenes de satélite. Este modelo es empleado por un método de control óptimo numérico, basado en un modelo de masa puntual en el que se modela la dinámica de viraje, con el objetivo de maximizar la eficiencia y predictibilidad de la trayectoria en presencia de incertidumbre sobre la evolución futura de las tormentas. Finalmente, el proceso de optimizatión es inicializado por un método heurístico aleatorizado que genera múltiples puntos de inicio para las iteraciones del optimizador. Esta combinación permite explorar y explotar el espacio de trayectorias solución para proporcionar al piloto o al controlador un conjunto de trayectorias propuestas, así como información útil sobre su coste y el riesgo asociado. Los métodos propuestos son probados en escenarios de ejemplo basados en datos reales, ilustrando las diferentes opciones disponibles de acuerdo a las prioridades del planificador y demostrando que las soluciones descritas en esta tesis son adecuadas para los problemas que se han formulado. De este modo, es posible enriquecer el proceso de planificación de vuelo para incrementar la eficiencia y predictibilidad de las trayectorias individuales, lo que contribuiría a mejoras en el rendimiento del sistema ATM.These works have been financially supported by Universidad Carlos III de Madrid through a PIF scholarship; by Eurocontrol, through the HALA! Research Network grant 10-220210-C2; by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO)'s R&D program, through the OptMet project (TRA2014-58413-C2-2-R); and by the European Commission's SESAR Horizon 2020 program, through the TBO-Met project (grant number 699294).Programa de Doctorado en Mecánica de Fluidos por la Universidad Carlos III de Madrid; la Universidad de Jaén; la Universidad de Zaragoza; la Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia; la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid y la Universidad Rovira iPresidente: Damián Rivas Rivas.- Secretario: Xavier Prats Menéndez.- Vocal: Benavar Sridha

    Simulation and Theory of Large-Scale Cortical Networks

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    Cerebral cortex is composed of intricate networks of neurons. These neuronal networks are strongly interconnected: every neuron receives, on average, input from thousands or more presynaptic neurons. In fact, to support such a number of connections, a majority of the volume in the cortical gray matter is filled by axons and dendrites. Besides the networks, neurons themselves are also highly complex. They possess an elaborate spatial structure and support various types of active processes and nonlinearities. In the face of such complexity, it seems necessary to abstract away some of the details and to investigate simplified models. In this thesis, such simplified models of neuronal networks are examined on varying levels of abstraction. Neurons are modeled as point neurons, both rate-based and spike-based, and networks are modeled as block-structured random networks. Crucially, on this level of abstraction, the models are still amenable to analytical treatment using the framework of dynamical mean-field theory. The main focus of this thesis is to leverage the analytical tractability of random networks of point neurons in order to relate the network structure, and the neuron parameters, to the dynamics of the neurons—in physics parlance, to bridge across the scales from neurons to networks. More concretely, four different models are investigated: 1) fully connected feedforward networks and vanilla recurrent networks of rate neurons; 2) block-structured networks of rate neurons in continuous time; 3) block-structured networks of spiking neurons; and 4) a multi-scale, data-based network of spiking neurons. We consider the first class of models in the light of Bayesian supervised learning and compute their kernel in the infinite-size limit. In the second class of models, we connect dynamical mean-field theory with large-deviation theory, calculate beyond mean-field fluctuations, and perform parameter inference. For the third class of models, we develop a theory for the autocorrelation time of the neurons. Lastly, we consolidate data across multiple modalities into a layer- and population-resolved model of human cortex and compare its activity with cortical recordings. In two detours from the investigation of these four network models, we examine the distribution of neuron densities in cerebral cortex and present a software toolbox for mean-field analyses of spiking networks

    Mathematical Methods, Modelling and Applications

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    This volume deals with novel high-quality research results of a wide class of mathematical models with applications in engineering, nature, and social sciences. Analytical and numeric, deterministic and uncertain dimensions are treated. Complex and multidisciplinary models are treated, including novel techniques of obtaining observation data and pattern recognition. Among the examples of treated problems, we encounter problems in engineering, social sciences, physics, biology, and health sciences. The novelty arises with respect to the mathematical treatment of the problem. Mathematical models are built, some of them under a deterministic approach, and other ones taking into account the uncertainty of the data, deriving random models. Several resulting mathematical representations of the models are shown as equations and systems of equations of different types: difference equations, ordinary differential equations, partial differential equations, integral equations, and algebraic equations. Across the chapters of the book, a wide class of approaches can be found to solve the displayed mathematical models, from analytical to numeric techniques, such as finite difference schemes, finite volume methods, iteration schemes, and numerical integration methods

    On robustness in biology: from sensing to functioning

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    Living systems are subject to various types of spatial and temporal noise at all scales and stages. Nevertheless, evolving under the pressure of natural selection, biology has mastered the ability of dealing with stochasticity. This is particularly crucial because these systems encounter numerous situations which require taking robust and proper actions in the presence of noise. Due to the complexity and variability of these situations, it is impossible to have a prescribed plan for an organism that keeps it alive and fully functional. Therefore, they have to be active, rather than passive, by following three essential steps: I) gathering information about their fluctuating environment, II) processing the information and making decisions via circuits that are inevitably noisy, and finally, III) taking the appropriate action robustly with organizations crossing multiple scales. Although various aspects of this general scheme have been subject of many studies, there are still many questions that remain unanswered: How can a dynamic environmental signal be sensed collectively by cell populations? and how does the topology of interactions affect the quality of this sensing? When processing information via the regulatory network, what are the drawbacks of multifunctional circuits? and how does the reliability of the decisions decrease as the multifunctionality increases? Finally, when the right decision is made and a tissue is growing with feedbacks crossing different scales, what are the crucial features that remain preserved from one subject to another? How can one use these features to understand the mechanisms behind these processes? This thesis addresses the main challenges for answering these questions and many more using methods from dynamical systems, network science, and stochastic processes. Using stochastic models, we investigate the fundamental limits arising from temporal noise on collective signal sensing and context-dependent information processing. Furthermore, by combining stochastic models and cross-scale data analyses, we study pattern formation during complex tissue growth.Lebende Systeme sind in allen Größenordnungen und Stadien verschiedenen Arten von räumlichem und zeitlichem Rauschen ausgesetzt. Dennoch hat die Biologie, die sich unter dem Druck der natürlichen Selektion entwickelt hat, die Fähigkeit gemeistert, mit stochastischen Fluktuationen umzugehen. Dies ist besonders wichtig, da Organismen auf zahlreiche Situationen stoßen, die es erfordern, in Gegenwart von Rauschen robuste und angemessene Maßnahmen zu ergreifen. Aufgrund der Komplexität und Variabilität dieser Situationen ist es unmöglich, einen vorgeschriebenen Plan für einen Organismus zu haben, der ihn überlebens- und funktionsfähig hält. Daher können Organismen sich nicht passiv verhalten, sondern befolgen aktiv drei wesentliche Schritte: I) Das Sammeln von Informationen über ihre dynamische Umgebung, II) Das Verarbeiten von Informationen und das Treffen von Entscheidungen über Regelnetzwerke, die unvermeidlich mit Rauschen behaftet sind, und schließlich, III) das robuste Funktionieren durch organisierte Maßnahmen, welche mehrere Größenordnungen überbrücken. Obwohl verschiedene Aspekte dieses allgemeinen Schemas Gegenstand vieler Studien waren, bleiben noch viele Fragen unbeantwortet: Wie kann ein dynamisches externes Signal kollektiv von Zellpopulationen wahrgenommen werden? Wie beeinflusst die Topologie der Interaktionen die Qualität dieser Wahrnehmung? Was sind die Nachteile multifunktionaler Schaltkreise bei der Verarbeitung von Informationen über das Regelnetzwerk? Wie nimmt die Zuverlässigkeit der Entscheidungen mit zunehmender Multifunktionalität ab? Und abschließend, wenn die richtige Entscheidung getroffen wurde und ein Gewebe wächst und dabei Rückkopplungen auf verschiedenen Größenordnungen erfährt, was sind die entscheidenden Merkmale, die von einem Versuchsobjekt zum anderen erhalten bleiben? Wie kann man diese Merkmale nutzen, um die Prozesse zu verstehen? Diese Arbeit befasst sich mit den wichtigsten Herausforderungen zur Beantwortung dieser und vieler weiterer Fragen mit Methoden aus dynamischen Systemen, Netzwerkforschung und stochastischen Prozessen
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