The Methodologies and Main Challenges of Assessment the Multi-Hazard Interaction and Risk Management Associated with Roads Infrastructures and Dam Safety: A Review

The idea of multi-hazard interactions and risk assessment, particularly in relation to both natural hazards and hazards triggered by anthropogenic processes, has been widely used, especially in recent decades. Numerous areas worldwide, as well as various sectors, face exposure to multiple hazards. These hazards encompass natural phenomena like floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, and more. In comparison, the human-induced or anthropogenic processes associated with infrastructure development, along with other potential human activities such as, land and cover use change, contribute to the overall hazard landscape. Both natural hazards and anthropogenic-induced directly led to infrastructure collapse and loss of functionality with other consequences for human lives, economy, beside the environment impacts. Limited studies have been conducted on the implementation of the comprehensive multi-hazard interaction approach, which is globally or regionally required, along with detailed studies on the interaction between different multi-hazard sources and their interrelationships in short-term or long-term scenarios. The current research aims to review previous literature and studies on the multi-hazard interaction approach, methodologies of visualization and classification, as well as explores the potential of multi-hazard associated with road networks, infrastructures, and dams. The research utilizes simulation various models and tools such as, Geographic Information System (GIS) beside Remote Sensing (Rs) techniques. The current study concludes that using multi-hazard maps, hazard matrix, and fragility curves represents highly valuable and very useful and flexible tools for implementing and visualization hot spot areas exposure by multi-hazard consequences and vulnerability analysis for short and long-term scenarios. In addition, the current review highlighted for development a holistic conceptual framework for multi-hazard and risk assessment associated with hydraulic structures such as dams, road networks and infrastructures with hazard exposure analysis to be used as tools for a decision support system (DSS) in order to develop urban resilience, risk management and hazard mitigations

The Methodologies and Main Challenges of Assessment the Multi-Hazard Interaction and Risk Management Associated with Roads Infrastructures and Dam Safety: A Review

The idea of multi-hazard interactions and risk assessment, particularly in relation to both natural hazards and hazards triggered by anthropogenic processes, has been widely used, especially in recent decades. Numerous areas worldwide, as well as various sectors, face exposure to multiple hazards. These hazards encompass natural phenomena like floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, and more. In comparison, the human-induced or anthropogenic processes associated with infrastructure development, along with other potential human activities such as, land and cover use change, contribute to the overall hazard landscape. Both natural hazards and anthropogenic-induced directly led to infrastructure collapse and loss of functionality with other consequences for human lives, economy, beside the environment impacts. Limited studies have been conducted on the implementation of the comprehensive multi-hazard interaction approach, which is globally or regionally required, along with detailed studies on the interaction between different multi-hazard sources and their interrelationships in short-term or long-term scenarios. The current research aims to review previous literature and studies on the multi-hazard interaction approach, methodologies of visualization and classification, as well as explores the potential of multi-hazard associated with road networks, infrastructures, and dams. The research utilizes simulation various models and tools such as, Geographic Information System (GIS) beside Remote Sensing (Rs) techniques. The current study concludes that using multi-hazard maps, hazard matrix, and fragility curves represents highly valuable and very useful and flexible tools for implementing and visualization hot spot areas exposure by multi-hazard consequences and vulnerability analysis for short and long-term scenarios. In addition, the current review highlighted for development a holistic conceptual framework for multi-hazard and risk assessment associated with hydraulic structures such as dams, road networks and infrastructures with hazard exposure analysis to be used as tools for a decision support system (DSS) in order to develop urban resilience, risk management and hazard mitigations

Reviewing qualitative research approaches in the context of critical infrastructure resilience

Modern societies are increasingly dependent on the proper functioning of critical infrastructures (CIs). CIs produce and distribute essential goods or services, as for power transmission systems, water treatment and distribution infrastructures, transportation systems, communication networks, nuclear power plants, and information technologies. Being resilient becomes a key property for CIs, which are constantly exposed to threats that can undermine safety, security, and business continuity. Nowadays, a variety of approaches exist in the context of CIs’ resilience research. This paper provides a state-of-the-art review on the approaches that have a complete qualitative dimension, or that can be used as entry points for semi-quantitative analyses. The study aims to uncover the usage of qualitative research methods through a systematic review based on PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses). The paper identifies four principal dimensions of resilience referred to CIs (i.e., techno-centric, organisational, community, and urban) and discusses the related qualitative methods. Besides many studies being focused on energy and transportation systems, the literature review allows to observe that interviews and questionnaires are most frequently used to gather qualitative data, besides a high percentage of mixed-method research. The article aims to provide a synthesis of literature on qualitative methods used for resilience research in the domain of CIs, detailing lessons learned from such approaches to shed lights on best practices and identify possible future research directions

11th International Conference on Integrated Disaster Risk Management

研究代表者: 横松宗太Cooｒdinator: Muneta Yokomats

Theoretical model for cascading effects analyses

Abstract In case of exceptional events of natural or anthropogenic type, the elements at risk (people, buildings, infrastructures, economy, etc.) are often hit by sequences of 'cascading events', function of time and space, caused by the triggering event (earthquake, landslide, volcanic eruption, fire, electric failure, etc.). Generally, sequences of events can involve the same element at risk, and the combined effects of cascading phenomena can strongly amplify the impact caused by single events in terms of extension of the affected area and damage level. The final impact on the territory can be significant and require to be carefully assessed in terms of emergency planning and management. This paper discusses from a theoretical point of view the modelling needs and the main issues to be taken into account in the development of simulation tools aiming to include cascading effects analyses to effectively support decision-makers in their preparedness and disaster mitigation strategies in the framework of emergency planning at local, national and international level. The model aims at developing cascading effects scenarios at different level of detail, depending on the availability of inventory/exposure data for the different categories of elements at risk and hazard/impact models for the various hazard sources. It has been developed within EU-FP7 SNOWBALL project (Lower the impact of aggravating factors in crisis situations thanks to adaptive foresight and decision-support tools, 2015–2017)

Loss Database Architecture for Disaster Risk Management

The reformed Union civil protection legislation (Decision on a Union Civil Protection Mechanism), which entered into force on 1 January 2014, is paving the way for more resilient communities by including key actions related to disaster prevention such as developing national risk assessments and the refinement of risk management planning. Under the Decision, Member States agreed to “develop risk assessments at national or appropriate sub- national level and make available to the Commission a summary of the relevant elements thereof by 22 December 2015 and every three years thereafter”. The Decision also requires Member States, together with the Commission, to develop guidelines on the content, methodology, and structure of risk management capability assessments. The Commission has published risk assessment and risk mapping guidelines to assist Member States with their national risk assessments. Risk management capability assessment guidelines were also developed. The recent Communication from the Commission "Strengthening EU Disaster Management: rescEU -Solidarity with Responsibility" COM(2017) 773 final calls "Member States and Commission to promote more systematic collection and dissemination of loss data, to enhance the collection of loss data and make use of loss data for optimised prevention and climate adaptation planning". Systematically collected, comparable and robust disaster damage and loss data are an essential element of the risk assessment and management processes. Thus, the Council Conclusions on risk management capability call on the Commission to 'Encourage the development of systems, models or methodologies for collecting and exchanging data on ways to assess the economic impact of disasters on an all-hazard basis.' The current practice in disaster loss data recording across the EU shows that there are hardly any comparable disaster damage and loss data: differences exist in the methods of data recording as well as in the governance approaches to managing disaster damage and loss data. The lack of standards for damage and loss data collection and recording represent the main challenge for damage and loss data sharing and comparison, especially for cross-border cooperation within the EU. This report is based on an accurate analysis of several databases developed following a diversified number of purposes to collect, record and aggregate information regarding losses occurred after a shock triggered by different hazards. The report proposes a common structure of a generic database able to accommodate and properly record the required particularities of a vast variety of events triggered by any kind of hazard.JRC.E.1-Disaster Risk Managemen

Critical Infrastructure Protection Approaches: Analytical Outlook on Capacity Responsiveness to Dynamic Trends

Overview: Critical infrastructures (CIs) – any asset with a functionality that is critical to normal societal functions, safety, security, economic or social wellbeing of people, and disruption or destruction of which would have a very significant negative societal impact. CIs are clearly central to the normal functioning of a nation’s economy and require to be protected from both intentional and unintentional sabotages. It is important to correctly discern and aptly manage security risks within CI domains. The protection (security) of CIs and their networks can provide clear benefits to owner organizations and nations including: enabling the attainment of a properly functioning social environment and economic market, improving service security, enabling integration to external markets, and enabling service recipients (consumers, clients, and users) to benefit from new and emerging technological developments. To effectively secure CI system, firstly, it is crucial to understand three things - what can happen, how likely it is to happen, and the consequences of such happenings. One way to achieve this is through modelling and simulations of CI attributes, functionalities, operations, and behaviours to support security analysis perspectives, and especially considering the dynamics in trends and technological adoptions. Despite the availability of several security-related CI modelling approaches (tools and techniques), trends such as inter-networking, internet and IoT integrations raise new issues. Part of the issues relate to how to effectively (more precisely and realistically) model the complex behavior of interconnected CIs and their protection as system of systems (SoS). This report attempts to address the broad goal around this issue by reviewing a sample of critical infrastructure protection approaches; comprising tools, techniques, and frameworks (methodologies). The analysis covers contexts relating to the types of critical infrastructures, applicable modelling techniques, risk management scope covered, considerations for resilience, interdependency, and policy and regulations factors. Key Findings: This research presents the following key findings: 1. There is not a single specific Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP) approach – tool, technique, methodology or framework – that exists or emerges as a ‘fit-for-all’; to allow the modelling and simulation of cyber security risks, resilience, dependency, and impact attributes in all critical infrastructure set-ups. 2. Typically, two or more modelling techniques can be (need to be) merged to cover a broader scope and context of modelling and simulation applications (areas) to achieve desirable highlevel protection and security for critical infrastructures. 3. Empirical-based, network-based, agent-based, and system dynamics-based modelling techniques are more widely used, and all offer gains for their use. 4. The deciding factors for choosing modelling techniques often rest on; complexity of use, popularity of approach, types and objectives of user Organisation and sector. 5. The scope of modelling functions and operations also help to strike the balance between ‘specificity’ and ‘generality’ of modelling technique and approach for the gains of in-depth analysis and wider coverage respectively. 6. Interdependency and resilience modelling and simulations in critical infrastructure operations, as well as associated security and safety risks; are crucial characteristics that need to be considered and explored in revising existing or developing new CIP modelling approaches. Recommendations: Key recommendations from this research include: 1. Other critical infrastructure sectors such as emergency services, food & agriculture, and dams; need to draw lessons from the energy and transportation sectors for the successive benefits of: i. Amplifying the drive and efforts towards evaluating and understanding security risks to their infrastructure and operations. ii. Support better understanding of any associated dependencies and cascading impacts. iii. Learning how to establish effective security and resilience. iv. Support the decision-making process linked with measuring the effectiveness of preparedness activities and investments. v. Improve the behavioural security-related responses of CI to disturbances or disruptions. 2. Security-related critical infrastructure modelling approaches should be developed or revised to include wider scopes of security risk management – from identification to effectiveness evaluations, to support: i. Appropriate alignment and responsiveness to the dynamic trends introduced by new technologies such as IoT and IIoT. ii. Dynamic security risk management – especially the assessment section needs to be more dynamic than static, to address the recurrent and impactful risks that emerge in critical infrastructures

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF CRITICAL OIL AND GAS INFRASTRUCTURES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN THE NIGER DELTA

Oil and gas infrastructures are being severely impacted by extreme climate change-induced disasters such as flood, storm, tidal surges, and rising temperature in the Niger Delta with high. There is a high potential for disruption of upstream and downstream activities as the world climate continues to change. The lack of knowledge of the criticality and vulnerability of infrastructures could further exacerbate impacts and the assets management value chain. This thesis, therefore, applied a criteria-based systematic evaluation of the criticality and vulnerability of selected critical oil and gas infrastructure to climate change impacts in the Niger Delta. It applied multi-criteria decision-making analysis (MCDA) tool – analytic hierarchy process (AHP), in prioritising systems according to their vulnerability and criticality and recommended sustainable adaptation mechanisms. Through a critical review of relevant literature, seven (7) criteria each for criticality and vulnerability assessment were synthesised accordingly and implemented in the assessment process. A further exploratory investigation, physical examination of infrastructures, focus groups and elite interviews were conducted to identify possible vulnerable infrastructures and scope qualitative and quantitative data for analysis using Mi-AHP spreadsheet. Results prioritised the criticality of infrastructures in the following order: terminals (27.1%), flow stations (18.5%), roads/bridges (15.5%), and transformers/high voltage cables (11.1%) while the least critical are loading bays (8.6%) and oil wellheads (5.1%). Further analysis indicated that the most vulnerable critical infrastructures are: pipelines (25%), terminals (17%) and roads/bridges (14%) while transformers/high voltage cables and oil wellheads where ranked as least vulnerable with 11% and 9% respectively. In addition to vulnerability assessment, an extended documentary analysis of groundwater geospatial stream flow and water discharge rate monitoring models suggest that an in-situ rise in groundwater level and increase in water discharge rate (WDR) at the upper Niger River could indicate a high probability of flood event at the lower Delta, hence further exacerbates the vulnerability of critical infrastructures. Accordingly, physical examination of infrastructures suggests that an increase in regional and ambient temperature disrupts the functionality of compressors and optimal operation of Flow Stations and inevitably exacerbate corrosion of cathodic systems when mixed with the saltwater flood from the Atlantic. The thesis produced a flexible conceptual framework for the vulnerability assessment of critical oil/gas infrastructures, contextualised and recommended sustainable climate adaptation strategies for the Niger Delta oil/gas industry. Some of these strategies include installation of industrial groundwater and water discharge rate monitoring systems, construction of elevated platforms for critical infrastructures installations, substitution of cathodic pipes with duplex stainless and glass reinforcement epoxy pipes. Others include proper channelisation of drainages and river systems around critical platforms, use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for flood monitoring and the establishment of inter-organisational climate impact assessment groups in the oil/gas industry. Climate impact assessment (CIA) is suggested for oil and gas projects as part of best practice in the environmental management and impact assessment framework

Tsunami risk communication and management: Contemporary gaps and challenges

Very large tsunamis are associated with low probabilities of occurrence. In many parts of the world, these events have usually occurred in a distant time in the past. As a result, there is low risk perception and a lack of collective memories, making tsunami risk communication both challenging and complex. Furthermore, immense challenges lie ahead as population and risk exposure continue to increase in coastal areas. Through the last decades, tsunamis have caught coastal populations off-guard, providing evidence of lack of preparedness. Recent tsunamis, such as the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004, 2011 Tohoku and 2018 Palu, have shaped the way tsunami risk is perceived and acted upon. Based on lessons learned from a selection of past tsunami events, this paper aims to review the existing body of knowledge and the current challenges in tsunami risk communication, and to identify the gaps in the tsunami risk management methodologies. The important lessons provided by the past events call for strengthening community resilience and improvement in risk-informed actions and policy measures. This paper shows that research efforts related to tsunami risk communication remain fragmented. The analysis of tsunami risk together with a thorough understanding of risk communication gaps and challenges is indispensable towards developing and deploying comprehensive disaster risk reduction measures. Moving from a broad and interdisciplinary perspective, the paper suggests that probabilistic hazard and risk assessments could potentially contribute towards better science communication and improved planning and implementation of risk mitigation measures

Tsunami risk communication and management: Contemporary gaps and challenges

Very large tsunamis are associated with low probabilities of occurrence. In many parts of the world, these events have usually occurred in a distant time in the past. As a result, there is low risk perception and a lack of collective memories, making tsunami risk communication both challenging and complex. Furthermore, immense challenges lie ahead as population and risk exposure continue to increase in coastal areas. Through the last decades, tsunamis have caught coastal populations off-guard, providing evidence of lack of preparedness. Recent tsunamis, such as the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004, 2011 Tohoku and 2018 Palu, have shaped the way tsunami risk is perceived and acted upon. Based on lessons learned from a selection of past tsunami events, this paper aims to review the existing body of knowledge and the current challenges in tsunami risk communication, and to identify the gaps in the tsunami risk management methodologies. The important lessons provided by the past events call for strengthening community resilience and improvement in risk-informed actions and policy measures. This paper shows that research efforts related to tsunami risk communication remain fragmented. The analysis of tsunami risk together with a thorough understanding of risk communication gaps and challenges is indispensable towards developing and deploying comprehensive disaster risk reduction measures. Moving from a broad and interdisciplinary perspective, the paper suggests that probabilistic hazard and risk assessments could potentially contribute towards better science communication and improved planning and implementation of risk mitigation measures