Finding All ∈-Good Arms in Stochastic Bandits

The pure-exploration problem in stochastic multi-armed bandits aims to find one or more arms with the largest (or near largest) means. Examples include finding an ∈-good arm, best-arm identification, top-k arm identification, and finding all arms with means above a specified threshold. However, the problem of finding all ∈-good arms has been overlooked in past work, although arguably this may be the most natural objective in many applications. For example, a virologist may conduct preliminary laboratory experiments on a large candidate set of treatments and move all ∈-good treatments into more expensive clinical trials. Since the ultimate clinical efficacy is uncertain, it is important to identify all ∈-good candidates. Mathematically, the all-∈-good arm identification problem presents significant new challenges and surprises that do not arise in the pure-exploration objectives studied in the past. We introduce two algorithms to overcome these and demonstrate their great empirical performance on a large-scale crowd-sourced dataset of 2.2Mratings collected by the New Yorker Caption Contest as well as a dataset testing hundreds of possible cancer drugs

Variance-Dependent Best Arm Identification

We study the problem of identifying the best arm in a stochastic multi-armed bandit game. Given a set of $n$ arms indexed from $1$ to $n$, each arm $i$ is associated with an unknown reward distribution supported on $[0,1]$ with mean $\theta_i$ and variance $\sigma_i^2$. Assume $\theta_1 > \theta_2 \geq \cdots \geq\theta_n$. We propose an adaptive algorithm which explores the gaps and variances of the rewards of the arms and makes future decisions based on the gathered information using a novel approach called \textit{grouped median elimination}. The proposed algorithm guarantees to output the best arm with probability $(1-\delta)$ and uses at most $O \left(\sum_{i = 1}^n \left(\frac{\sigma_i^2}{\Delta_i^2} + \frac{1}{\Delta_i}\right)(\ln \delta^{-1} + \ln \ln \Delta_i^{-1})\right)$ samples, where $\Delta_i$ ($i \geq 2$) denotes the reward gap between arm $i$ and the best arm and we define $\Delta_1 = \Delta_2$. This achieves a significant advantage over the variance-independent algorithms in some favorable scenarios and is the first result that removes the extra $\ln n$ factor on the best arm compared with the state-of-the-art. We further show that $\Omega \left( \sum_{i = 1}^n \left( \frac{\sigma_i^2}{\Delta_i^2} + \frac{1}{\Delta_i} \right) \ln \delta^{-1} \right)$ samples are necessary for an algorithm to achieve the same goal, thereby illustrating that our algorithm is optimal up to doubly logarithmic terms

Searching for structure in complex data: a modern statistical quest

Current research in statistics has taken interesting new directions, as data collected from scientific studies has become increasingly complex. At first glance, the number of experiments conducted by a scientist must be fairly large in order for a statistician to draw correct conclusions based on noisy measurements of a large number of factors. However, statisticians may often uncover simpler structure in the data, enabling accurate statistical inference based on relatively few experiments. In this snapshot, we will introduce the concept of high-dimensional statistical estimation via optimization, and illustrate this principle using an example from medical imaging. We will also present several open questions which are actively being studied by researchers in statistics