Learning Dynamic Systems for Intention Recognition in Human-Robot-Cooperation

This thesis is concerned with intention recognition for a humanoid robot and investigates how the challenges of uncertain and incomplete observations, a high degree of detail of the used models, and real-time inference may be addressed by modeling the human rationale as hybrid, dynamic Bayesian networks and performing inference with these models. The key focus lies on the automatic identification of the employed nonlinear stochastic dependencies and the situation-specific inference

A multivariate approach for multi-step demand forecasting in assembly industries: Empirical evidence from an automotive supply chain

PreprintDemand forecasting works as a basis for operating, business and production planning decisions in many supply chain contexts. Yet, how to accurately predict the manufacturer's demand for components in the presence of end-customer demand uncertainty remains poorly understood. Assigning the proper order quantities of components to suppliers thus becomes a nontrivial task, with a significant impact on planning, capacity and inventory-related costs. This paper introduces a multivariate approach to predict manufacturer's demand for components throughout multiple forecast horizons using different leading indicators of demand shifts. We compare the autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous inputs (ARIMAX) with Machine Learning (ML) models. Using a real case study, we empirically evaluate the forecasting and supply chain performance of the multivariate regression models over the component's life-cycle. The experiments show that the proposed multivariate approach provides superior forecasting and inventory performance compared with traditional univariate benchmarks. Moreover, it reveals applicable throughout the component's life-cycle, not just to a single stage. Particularly, we found that demand signals at the beginning of the life-cycle are predicted better by the ARIMAX model, but it is outperformed by ML-based models in later life-cycle stages.INCT-EN - Instituto Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia para Excitotoxicidade e Neuroproteção(UIDB/00319/2020

A self-validating control system based approach to plant fault detection and diagnosis

An approach is proposed in which fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) tasks are distributed to separate FDD modules associated with each control system located throughout a plant. Intended specifically for those control systems that inherently eliminate steady state error, it is modular, steady state based, requires very little process specific information and therefore should be attractive to control systems implementers who seek economies of scale. The approach is applicable to virtually all types of process plant, whether they are open loop stable or not, have a type or class number of zero or not and so on. Based on qualitative reasoning, the approach is founded on the application of control systems theory to single and cascade control systems with integral action. This results in the derivation of cause-effect knowledge and fault isolation procedures that take into account factors like interactions between control systems, and the availability of non-control-loop-based sensors

Decision tree learning for intelligent mobile robot navigation

The replication of human intelligence, learning and reasoning by means of computer algorithms is termed Artificial Intelligence (Al) and the interaction of such algorithms with the physical world can be achieved using robotics. The work described in this thesis investigates the applications of concept learning (an approach which takes its inspiration from biological motivations and from survival instincts in particular) to robot control and path planning. The methodology of concept learning has been applied using learning decision trees (DTs) which induce domain knowledge from a finite set of training vectors which in turn describe systematically a physical entity and are used to train a robot to learn new concepts and to adapt its behaviour. To achieve behaviour learning, this work introduces the novel approach of hierarchical learning and knowledge decomposition to the frame of the reactive robot architecture. Following the analogy with survival instincts, the robot is first taught how to survive in very simple and homogeneous environments, namely a world without any disturbances or any kind of "hostility". Once this simple behaviour, named a primitive, has been established, the robot is trained to adapt new knowledge to cope with increasingly complex environments by adding further worlds to its existing knowledge. The repertoire of the robot behaviours in the form of symbolic knowledge is retained in a hierarchy of clustered decision trees (DTs) accommodating a number of primitives. To classify robot perceptions, control rules are synthesised using symbolic knowledge derived from searching the hierarchy of DTs. A second novel concept is introduced, namely that of multi-dimensional fuzzy associative memories (MDFAMs). These are clustered fuzzy decision trees (FDTs) which are trained locally and accommodate specific perceptual knowledge. Fuzzy logic is incorporated to deal with inherent noise in sensory data and to merge conflicting behaviours of the DTs. In this thesis, the feasibility of the developed techniques is illustrated in the robot applications, their benefits and drawbacks are discussed

The 1990 progress report and future plans

This document describes the progress and plans of the Artificial Intelligence Research Branch (RIA) at ARC in 1990. Activities span a range from basic scientific research to engineering development and to fielded NASA applications, particularly those applications that are enabled by basic research carried out at RIA. Work is conducted in-house and through collaborative partners in academia and industry. Our major focus is on a limited number of research themes with a dual commitment to technical excellence and proven applicability to NASA short, medium, and long-term problems. RIA acts as the Agency's lead organization for research aspects of artificial intelligence, working closely with a second research laboratory at JPL and AI applications groups at all NASA centers

Decision making based on hybrid modeling approach applied to cellulose acetate based historical films conservation

no. 760801\NEMOSINE UID/QUI/50006/2020Preserving culture heritage cellulose acetate-based historical films is a challenge due to the long-term instability of these complex materials and a lack of prediction models that can guide conservation strategies for each particular film. In this work, a cellulose acetate degradation model is proposed as the basis for the selection of appropriate strategies for storage and conservation for each specimen, considering its specific information. Due to the formulation complexity and diversity of cellulose acetate-based films produced over the decades, we hereby propose a hybrid modeling approach to describe the films degradation process. The problem is addressed by a hybrid model that uses as a backbone a first-principles based model to describe the degradation kinetics of the pure cellulose diacetate polymer. The mechanistic model was successfully adapted to fit experimental data from accelerated aging of plasticized films. The hybrid model considers then the specificity of each historical film via the development of two chemometric models. These models resource on gas release data, namely acetic acid, and descriptors of the films (manufacturing date, AD-strip value and film type) to assess the current polymer degradation state and estimate the increase in the degradation rate. These estimations are then conjugated with storage conditions (e.g., temperature and relative humidity, presence of adsorbent in the film’s box) and used to feed the mechanistic model to provide the required time degradation simulations. The developed chemometric models provided predictions with accuracy more than 87%. We have found that the storage archive as well as the manufacturing company are not determining factors for conservation but rather the manufacturing date, off gas data as well as the film type. In summary, this hybrid modeling was able to develop a practical tool for conservators to assess films conservation state and to design storage and conservation policies that are best suited for each cultural heritage film.publishersversionpublishe

UQ and AI: data fusion, inverse identification, and multiscale uncertainty propagation in aerospace components

A key requirement for engineering designs is that they offer good performance across a range of uncertain conditions while exhibiting an admissibly low probability of failure. In order to design components that offer good performance across a range of uncertain conditions, it is necessary to take account of the effect of the uncertainties associated with a candidate design. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methods are statistical methods that may be used to quantify the effect of the uncertainties inherent in a system on its performance. This thesis expands the envelope of UQ methods for the design of aerospace components, supporting the integration of UQ methods in product development by addressing four industrial challenges. Firstly, a method for propagating uncertainty through computational models in a hierachy of scales is described that is based on probabilistic equivalence and Non-Intrusive Polynomial Chaos (NIPC). This problem is relevant to the design of aerospace components as the computational models used to evaluate candidate designs are typically multiscale. This method was then extended to develop a formulation for inverse identification, where the probability distributions for the material properties of a coupon are deduced from measurements of its response. We demonstrate how probabilistic equivalence and the Maximum Entropy Principle (MEP) may be used to leverage data from simulations with scarce experimental data- with the intention of making this stage of product design less expensive and time consuming. The third contribution of this thesis is to develop two novel meta-modelling strategies to promote the wider exploration of the design space during the conceptual design phase. Design Space Exploration (DSE) in this phase is crucial as decisions made at the early, conceptual stages of an aircraft design can restrict the range of alternative designs available at later stages in the design process, despite limited quantitative knowledge of the interaction between requirements being available at this stage. A histogram interpolation algorithm is presented that allows the designer to interactively explore the design space with a model-free formulation, while a meta-model based on Knowledge Based Neural Networks (KBaNNs) is proposed in which the outputs of a high-level, inexpensive computer code are informed by the outputs of a neural network, in this way addressing the criticism of neural networks that they are purely data-driven and operate as black boxes. The final challenge addressed by this thesis is how to iteratively improve a meta-model by expanding the dataset used to train it. Given the reliance of UQ methods on meta-models this is an important challenge. This thesis proposes an adaptive learning algorithm for Support Vector Machine (SVM) metamodels, which are used to approximate an unknown function. In particular, we apply the adaptive learning algorithm to test cases in reliability analysis.Open Acces

Pre-processing, classification and semantic querying of large-scale Earth observation spaceborne/airborne/terrestrial image databases: Process and product innovations.

By definition of Wikipedia, “big data is the term adopted for a collection of data sets so large and complex that it becomes difficult to process using on-hand database management tools or traditional data processing applications. The big data challenges typically include capture, curation, storage, search, sharing, transfer, analysis and visualization”. Proposed by the intergovernmental Group on Earth Observations (GEO), the visionary goal of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) implementation plan for years 2005-2015 is systematic transformation of multisource Earth Observation (EO) “big data” into timely, comprehensive and operational EO value-adding products and services, submitted to the GEO Quality Assurance Framework for Earth Observation (QA4EO) calibration/validation (Cal/Val) requirements. To date the GEOSS mission cannot be considered fulfilled by the remote sensing (RS) community. This is tantamount to saying that past and existing EO image understanding systems (EO-IUSs) have been outpaced by the rate of collection of EO sensory big data, whose quality and quantity are ever-increasing. This true-fact is supported by several observations. For example, no European Space Agency (ESA) EO Level 2 product has ever been systematically generated at the ground segment. By definition, an ESA EO Level 2 product comprises a single-date multi-spectral (MS) image radiometrically calibrated into surface reflectance (SURF) values corrected for geometric, atmospheric, adjacency and topographic effects, stacked with its data-derived scene classification map (SCM), whose thematic legend is general-purpose, user- and application-independent and includes quality layers, such as cloud and cloud-shadow. Since no GEOSS exists to date, present EO content-based image retrieval (CBIR) systems lack EO image understanding capabilities. Hence, no semantic CBIR (SCBIR) system exists to date either, where semantic querying is synonym of semantics-enabled knowledge/information discovery in multi-source big image databases. In set theory, if set A is a strict superset of (or strictly includes) set B, then A B. This doctoral project moved from the working hypothesis that SCBIR computer vision (CV), where vision is synonym of scene-from-image reconstruction and understanding EO image understanding (EO-IU) in operating mode, synonym of GEOSS ESA EO Level 2 product human vision. Meaning that necessary not sufficient pre-condition for SCBIR is CV in operating mode, this working hypothesis has two corollaries. First, human visual perception, encompassing well-known visual illusions such as Mach bands illusion, acts as lower bound of CV within the multi-disciplinary domain of cognitive science, i.e., CV is conditioned to include a computational model of human vision. Second, a necessary not sufficient pre-condition for a yet-unfulfilled GEOSS development is systematic generation at the ground segment of ESA EO Level 2 product. Starting from this working hypothesis the overarching goal of this doctoral project was to contribute in research and technical development (R&D) toward filling an analytic and pragmatic information gap from EO big sensory data to EO value-adding information products and services. This R&D objective was conceived to be twofold. First, to develop an original EO-IUS in operating mode, synonym of GEOSS, capable of systematic ESA EO Level 2 product generation from multi-source EO imagery. EO imaging sources vary in terms of: (i) platform, either spaceborne, airborne or terrestrial, (ii) imaging sensor, either: (a) optical, encompassing radiometrically calibrated or uncalibrated images, panchromatic or color images, either true- or false color red-green-blue (RGB), multi-spectral (MS), super-spectral (SS) or hyper-spectral (HS) images, featuring spatial resolution from low (> 1km) to very high (< 1m), or (b) synthetic aperture radar (SAR), specifically, bi-temporal RGB SAR imagery. The second R&D objective was to design and develop a prototypical implementation of an integrated closed-loop EO-IU for semantic querying (EO-IU4SQ) system as a GEOSS proof-of-concept in support of SCBIR. The proposed closed-loop EO-IU4SQ system prototype consists of two subsystems for incremental learning. A primary (dominant, necessary not sufficient) hybrid (combined deductive/top-down/physical model-based and inductive/bottom-up/statistical model-based) feedback EO-IU subsystem in operating mode requires no human-machine interaction to automatically transform in linear time a single-date MS image into an ESA EO Level 2 product as initial condition. A secondary (dependent) hybrid feedback EO Semantic Querying (EO-SQ) subsystem is provided with a graphic user interface (GUI) to streamline human-machine interaction in support of spatiotemporal EO big data analytics and SCBIR operations. EO information products generated as output by the closed-loop EO-IU4SQ system monotonically increase their value-added with closed-loop iterations