Multi-criteria decision making with linguistic labels: a comparison of two methodologies applied to energy planning

This paper compares two multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approaches based on linguistic label assessment. The first approach consists of a modified fuzzy TOPSIS methodology introduced by Kaya and Kahraman in 2011. The second approach, introduced by Agell et al. in 2012, is based on qualitative reasoning techniques for ranking multi-attribute alternatives in group decision-making with linguistic labels. Both approaches are applied to a case of assessment and selection of the most suitable types of energy in a geographical area.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Evaluation of combined heat and power (CHP) systems using fuzzy shannon entropy and fuzzy TOPSIS

Combined heat and power (CHP) or cogeneration can play a strategic role in addressing environmental issues and climate change. CHP systems require less fuel than separate heat and power systems in order to produce the same amount of energy saving primary energy, improving the security of the supply. Because less fuel is combusted, greenhouse gas emissions and other air pollutants are reduced. If we are to consider the CHP system as "sustainable", we must include in its assessment not only energetic performance but also environmental and economic aspects, presenting a multicriteria issue. The purpose of the paper is to apply a fuzzy multicriteria methodology to the assessment of five CHP commercial technologies. Specifically, the combination of the fuzzy Shannon's entropy and the fuzzy Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) approach will be tested for this purpose. Shannon's entropy concept, using interval data such as the α-cut, is a particularly suitable technique for assigning weights to criteria — it does not require a decision-making (DM) to assign a weight to the criteria. To rank the proposed alternatives, a fuzzy TOPSIS method has been applied. It is based on the principle that the chosen alternative should be as close as possible to the positive ideal solution and be as far as possible from the negative ideal solution. The proposed approach provides a useful technical–scientific decision-making tool that can effectively support, in a consistent and transparent way, the assessment of various CHP technologies from a sustainable point of view

Bibliometric analysis of scientific production on methods to aid decision making in the last 40 years

Purpose: Multicriteria methods have gained traction in both academia and industry practices for effective decision-making over the years. This bibliometric study aims to explore and provide an overview of research carried out on multicriteria methods, in its various aspects, over the past forty-four years. Design/Methodology/Approach: The Web of Science (WoS) and Scopus databases were searched for publications from January 1945 to April 29, 2021, on multicriteria methods in titles, abstracts, and keywords. The bibliographic data were analyzed using the R bibliometrix package. Findings: This bibliometric study asserts that 29,050 authors have produced 20,861 documents on the theme of multicriteria methods in 131 countries in the last forty-four years. Scientific production in this area grows at a rate of 13.88 per year. China is the leading country in publications with 14.14%; India with 10.76%; and Iran with 8.09%. Islamic Azad University leads others with 504 publications, followed by the Vilnius Gediminas Technical University with 456 and the National Institute of Technology with 336. As for journals, Expert Systems With Applications; Sustainability; and Journal of Cleaner Production are the leading journals, which account for more than 4.67% of all indexed literature. Furthermore, Zavadskas E. and Wang J have the highest publications in the multicriteria methods domain regarding the authors. Regarding the most commonly used multicriteria decision-making methods, AHP is the most favored approach among the ten countries with the most publications in this research area, followed by TOPSIS, VIKOR, PROMETHEE, and ANP. Practical implications: The bibliometric literature review method allows the researchers to explore the multicriteria research area more extensively than the traditional literature review method. It enables a large dataset of bibliographic records to be systematically analyzed through statistical measures, yielding informative insights. Originality/value: The usefulness of this bibliometric study is summed in presenting an overview of the topic of the multicriteria methods during the previous forty-four years, allowing other academics to use this research as a starting point for their research

A comparative study of multiple-criteria decision-making methods under stochastic inputs

This paper presents an application and extension of multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods to account for stochastic input variables. More in particular, a comparative study is carried out among well-known and widely-applied methods in MCDM, when applied to the reference problem of the selection of wind turbine support structures for a given deployment location. Along with data from industrial experts, six deterministic MCDM methods are studied, so as to determine the best alternative among the available options, assessed against selected criteria with a view toward assigning confidence levels to each option. Following an overview of the literature around MCDM problems, the best practice implementation of each method is presented aiming to assist stakeholders and decision-makers to support decisions in real-world applications, where many and often conflicting criteria are present within uncertain environments. The outcomes of this research highlight that more sophisticated methods, such as technique for the order of preference by similarity to the ideal solution (TOPSIS) and Preference Ranking Organization method for enrichment evaluation (PROMETHEE), better predict the optimum design alternative

Methodology for the evaluation and design of projects considering multiple criteria and uncertainty. Application to the development of energy projects in rural areas

Tesi en modalitat de compendi de publicacionsIn 2015, the United Nations defined the Sustainable Development Goals in a transition towards a world without poverty and where human rights, equity and sustainability are prioritized. In particular, modern energy services are considered crucial not only to achieve universal access to energy by 2030, but due to their contribution to alleviate chronical poverty, reduce food insecurity, promote the access to modern information in schools and enhance the start of productive activities. However, the aim of global access by 2030 is still far from being complete, with more than 700 million people living in rural areas without access to electricity and using firewood and other polluting traditional biomass for cooking and heating. Decentralized energy systems are gaining attention as a more feasible solution than grid extension to provide energy to rural and inaccessible areas. The evaluation and design of decentralized systems is a complex process that needs to take into account multiple alternatives and criteria to ensure a long-term sustainability, but usually available studies in literature focus exclusively in technical and economic aspects. Also, the minority of studies following a multicriteria decision-making approach underestimate the effect of the potential lack of confidence of the experts and users consulted to weight the importance of each criterion or to evaluate a specific alternative. In this context, the objective of this thesis is to develop multicriteria procedures considering uncertainty to increase the robustness of the results. These procedures are applied to projects that foster access to energy services and promote therefore the development of rural and underprivileged areas. The thesis begins with two multicriteria procedures presented for the evaluation and the design, respectively, of rural electrification projects. These procedures are applied to two real case studies in Peru and Nigeria. Both applications provide valuable insights, for local authorities and other promoters of electrification systems in similar contexts, regarding which technologies and configurations to use in determined circumstances. At the same time, the analysis carried out enable an improvement regarding the robustness of results through the consideration of the lack of confidence of the opinions collected about the importance of the criteria and the evaluation of the alternatives. In this regard, A Methodology for Multicriteria Decision-making considering Uncertainty (MIMDU) is then developed based on fuzzy numbers to include the lack of confidence experts and users might have when weighting a criterion or evaluating an alternative. The methodology designed includes a novel procedure to quantify human opinions with non-pre-defined fuzzy numbers and a systematic process to calculate diverse rankings of alternatives and provide complimentary information that leads to a more robust decision-making. Indeed, the potential of the methodology is illustrated with an example case that shows how the lack of confidence can affect the alternatives ranking and the subsequent decision. Finally, the methodology is applied to a real case study in Colombia to select the best alternative for digestate post-treatment before its application to agricultural soil as a fertilizer. The use of MIMDU presents three major beneficial outcomes for multicriteria decision-making to foster rural development. First, the consideration of the lack of confidence of the respondents can reduce the pressure they might feel when providing an answer without complete knowledge. Second, it allows a more accurate quantification of the opinions given, turning, for example, more hesitant answers into less reliable evaluations of an alternative, that worsens its final ranking. And third, more robust decisions can be taken due to the major precision in the modelling of opinions and the possibility of comparing crisp and fuzzy-based rankings of the alternatives.Dins dels objectius de desenvolupament sostenibles, els serveis energètics moderns es consideren crucials no només per aconseguir l'accés universal a l'energia el 2030, sinó per la seva contribució a pal·liar la pobresa crònica, reduir la inseguretat alimentària, promoure l'accés a la informació moderna a les escoles i permetre l'inici d'activitats productives. Tot i això, l’objectiu d’accés mundial per al 2030 encara està lluny d’acomplir-se, ja que més de 700 milions de persones viuen a les zones rurals sense accés a l’electricitat i utilitzen llenya i altres biomasses tradicionals contaminants per cuinar i escalfar. Els sistemes energètics descentralitzats guanyen pes respecte l’extensió de la xarxa per proporcionar energia a zones rurals i inaccessibles. L’avaluació i el disseny d’aquests sistemes és un procés complex que ha de tenir en compte múltiples alternatives i criteris per garantir una sostenibilitat a llarg termini, però els estudis de literatura disponibles generalment se centren exclusivament en aspectes tècniques i econòmiques. A més, la minoria d’estudis que segueixen un enfocament multicriteri subestimen l’efecte de la manca de confiança potencial dels experts i usuaris consultats per ponderar la importància de cada criteri o avaluar una alternativa específica. En aquest context, l'objectiu d'aquesta tesi és desenvolupar procediments multicriteri considerant la incertesa per afavorir l’obtenció de resultats robustos. Aquests procediments s’apliquen a projectes que afavoreixen l’accés als serveis energètics i promouen, per tant, el desenvolupament de zones rurals i desfavorides. La tesi comença amb dos procediments multicriteri presentats per a l'avaluació i el disseny, respectivament, de projectes d'electrificació rural. Aquests procediments s'apliquen a dos casos pràctics reals al Perú i Nigèria. Ambdues aplicacions proporcionen informació valuosa, per a les autoritats locals i altres promotors de sistemes d’electrificació en contextos similars, sobre quines tecnologies i configuracions a utilitzar en determinades circumstàncies. Al mateix temps, les anàlisis realitzades permeten una millora en quant a la solidesa dels resultats mitjançant la consideració de la manca de confiança de les opinions recollides sobre la importància dels criteris i l’avaluació de les alternatives. Per fer-ho, es desenvolupa una metodologia per a la presa de decisions multicriteri que té en compte la incertesa (MIMDU) basada en nombres difusos per incloure la manca de confiança que els experts i usuaris podrien tenir quan ponderen un criteri o avaluen una alternativa. La metodologia dissenyada inclou un nou procediment per quantificar opinions humanes amb nombres difusos no predefinits i un procés sistemàtic per calcular diversos rànquings d’alternatives i proporcionar informació complementària que condueix a una presa de decisions més robusta. De fet, el potencial de la metodologia s’il·lustra amb un cas d’exemple que mostra com la manca de confiança pot afectar el rànquing d’alternatives i la decisió posterior. Finalment, la metodologia s'aplica a un estudi de cas real a Colòmbia per seleccionar la millor alternativa per al post-tractament del digestat abans de la seva aplicació a sòl agrícola com a fertilitzant. L’ús de MIMDU presenta tres grans beneficis per a la presa de decisions multicriteri per fomentar el desenvolupament rural. En primer lloc, la consideració de la manca de confiança dels enquestats pot reduir la pressió que podrien sentir al donar una resposta sense coneixement complet. En segon lloc, permet una quantificació més precisa de les opinions donades, convertint, per exemple, respostes més dubtoses en avaluacions menys fiables d’una alternativa, que empitjora la seva classificació final. I, en tercer lloc, es poden prendre decisions més robustes a causa de la precisió en la modelització d’opinionsEn 2015, la Organización de las Naciones Unidas definió los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible en una transición hacia un mundo sin pobreza y donde se priorizan los derechos humanos, la equidad y la sostenibilidad. En particular, los servicios energéticos modernos se consideran cruciales no solo para lograr el acceso universal a la energía en 2030, sino por su contribución para aliviar la pobreza crónica, reducir la inseguridad alimentaria, promover el acceso a la información en las escuelas y permitir el inicio de actividades productivas. Sin embargo, el objetivo de acceso global a la energía para 2030 aún está lejos de ser completo, con más de 700 millones de personas viviendo en áreas rurales sin acceso a electricidad y utilizando leña y otra biomasa tradicional contaminante, para cocinar y calentar. Los sistemas de energía descentralizados están ganando peso respecto a la extensión de la red para proporcionar energía a áreas rurales e inaccesibles. La evaluación y el diseño de sistemas descentralizados es un proceso complejo que precisa considerar múltiples alternativas y criterios para que sea sostenible a largo plazo, pero los estudios disponibles en la literatura generalmente se enfocan exclusivamente en aspectos técnicos y económicos. Asimismo, la minoría de estudios que siguen un enfoque de toma de decisiones multicriterio subestiman el efecto de la potencial falta de confianza de los expertos y usuarios consultados para ponderar la importancia de cada criterio o para evaluar una alternativa específica. En este contexto, el objetivo de esta tesis es desarrollar procedimientos multicriterio considerando la incertidumbre para aumentar la robustez de los resultados. Estos procedimientos se aplican a proyectos que fomentan el acceso a los servicios energéticos y, por tanto, promueven el desarrollo de zonas rurales y desfavorecidas. La tesis comienza con dos procedimientos multicriterio presentados para la evaluación y el diseño, respectivamente, de proyectos de electrificación rural. Estos procedimientos se aplican a dos estudios de casos reales en Perú y Nigeria. Ambas aplicaciones pueden proporcionar información valiosa, para las autoridades locales y otros promotores de sistemas de electrificación en contextos similares, sobre qué tecnologías y configuraciones utilizar en determinadas circunstancias. Al mismo tiempo, los análisis realizados permiten una mejora en cuanto a la robustez de los resultados a través de la consideración de la falta de confianza de las opiniones recogidas acerca de la importancia de los criterios y de la evaluación de las alternativas. Para ello, se desarrolla una Metodología para la toma de decisiones multicriterio considerando la incertidumbre (MIMDU) basada en números difusos para incluir la falta de confianza que los expertos y los usuarios pueden tener al ponderar un criterio o evaluar una alternativa La metodología diseñada incluye un procedimiento novedoso para cuantificar opiniones humanas con números difusos no predefinidos y un proceso sistemático para proponer rankings de alternativas y brindar información complementaria que conduce a una toma de decisiones más robusta. El potencial de la metodología se ilustra con un caso de ejemplo que muestra cómo la falta de confianza puede afectar el ranking de alternativas y la decisión posterior. Finalmente, la metodología diseñada se aplica a un estudio de caso real en Colombia para seleccionar la mejor alternativa para el digestato post-tratamiento previo a su aplicación al suelo agrícola como fertilizante. El uso de MIMDU presenta tres importantes beneficios para la toma de decisiones multicriterio en contextos de desarrollo rural. En primer lugar, la consideración de la falta de confianza de los encuestados puede reducir la presión al dar una respuesta sin un conocimiento completo. En segundo lugar, permite una cuantificación más precisa de las opiniones emitidas, convirtiendo, por ejemplo, respuestas más vacilantes en valoraciones menos fiables de una alternativa, que empeora su clasificación final. Y tercero, se pueden tomar decisiones más sólidas debido a la mayor precisión en el modelado de opiniones y la posibilidad de comparar rankings deterministas y difusos de las alternativas.Postprint (published version

Multi-criteria evaluation of renewable energy alternatives for electricity generation in a residential building.

The residential sector is well known to be one of the main energy consumers worldwide. The purpose of this study is to select the best renewable energy alternatives for electricity generation in a residential building by using a new integrated fuzzy multi-criteria group decision-making method. In renewable energy decision-making problems, the preferences of experts and decision-makers are generally uncertain. Furthermore, it is challenging to quantify the reel performance of renewable energy alternatives using a set of exact values. Fuzzy logic is commonly applied to deal with those uncertainties. The method proposed in this paper combines different methods. First, the Delphi method is used in order to select a preliminary set of renewable energy alternatives for electricity generation as well as a preliminary set of criteria (economic, environmental, social, etc.). Then, the questionnaire is used to study the renewable energy alternatives preferences of the residents of the residential building’. Later, the FAHP (Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process) is implemented to obtain the weighs of the criteria taking into consideration uncertainties in expert's judgments. Finally, the FPROMETHEE (Fuzzy Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation) global ranking is performed in order to get a complete ranking of the renewable energy alternatives taking into account uncertainties related to the alternatives' evaluations. The originality of this paper comes from the application of the proposed integrated Delphi- FAHP- FPROMETHEE methodology for the selection of the best renewable energy alternatives for electricity generation in a residential building. A case study has validated the effectiveness and the applicability of the proposed method. The results reveal that the proposed integrated method helps to formulate the problem and is particularly effective in handling uncertain data. It facilitates the selection of the best renewable energy alternatives in a manner that is participatory, comprehensive, robust, and reliable

Electric Bus Selection with Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Green Transportation

Eren, Tamer/0000-0001-5282-3138; Hamurcu, Mustafa/0000-0002-6166-3946WOS:000531558100202Multicriteria decision-making tools are widely used in complex decision-making problems. There are also numerous points of decision-making in transportation. One of these decision-making points regards clean technology vehicle determination. Clean technology vehicles, such as electric buses, have some advantages compared to other technologies like internal combustion engine vehicles. Notably, electric vehicles emit zero tailpipe emissions, thereby ensuring cleaner air for cities and making these clean technologies preferable to other technologies, especially in highly populated areas for better air quality and more livable cities. In this study, we propose a multicriteria decision-making process using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) in the context of an electric bus in the center of Ankara. Six potential electric bus alternatives were evaluated under seven specific criteria. Overall, EV-2 electric buses outperformed other electric bus alternatives based on the chosen criteria. In addition, the stability of the results obtained under different scenarios using this method was established via sensitivity analysis

An integrated multi-criteria decision-making framework for a medical device selection in the healthcare industry

Medical devices used in healthcare organizations are costly, and the process of selecting these devices requires considering multiple criteria such as effectiveness and ease of use. Careful selection of these devices is daunting since it entails the evaluation of various measures. This research investigates the selection process of the same type of medical devices, especially when alternatives are available, and the organization needs to make a good selection. A Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) framework based on the integration of the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and ELimination Et Choice Translating Reality (ELECTRE) method is developed. The framework model includes 10 criteria, which are selected based on real-life inputs from professional physicians. Seven Ultrasound machines (referred to as alternatives) are evaluated using the developed framework. A case study is conducted on the best selection practice of an Ultrasound machine in a gynecology clinic based in the Kingdom of Jordan. Results revealed that the best and worst alternatives of ultrasound machines are identified and compared with all other options