A Hybrid Analytic Network Process and Artificial Neural Network (ANP-ANN) model for urban Earthquake vulnerability assessment

© 2018 by the authors. Vulnerability assessment is one of the prerequisites for risk analysis in disaster management. Vulnerability to earthquakes, especially in urban areas, has increased over the years due to the presence of complex urban structures and rapid development. Urban vulnerability is a result of human behavior which describes the extent of susceptibility or resilience of social, economic, and physical assets to natural disasters. The main aim of this paper is to develop a new hybrid framework using Analytic Network Process (ANP) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models for constructing a composite social, economic, environmental, and physical vulnerability index. This index was then applied to Tabriz City, which is a seismic-prone province in the northwestern part of Iran with recurring devastating earthquakes and consequent heavy casualties and damages. A Geographical Information Systems (GIS) analysis was used to identify and evaluate quantitative vulnerability indicators for generating an earthquake vulnerability map. The classified and standardized indicators were subsequently weighed and ranked using an ANP model to construct the training database. Then, standardized maps coupled with the training site maps were presented as input to aMultilayer Perceptron (MLP) neural network for producing an Earthquake VulnerabilityMap (EVM). Finally, an EVMwas produced for Tabriz City and the level of vulnerability in various zones was obtained. South and southeast regions of Tabriz City indicate low to moderate vulnerability, while some zones of the northeastern tract are under critical vulnerability conditions. Furthermore, the impact of the vulnerability of Tabriz City on population during an earthquake was included in this analysis for risk estimation. A comparison of the result produced by EVM and the Population Vulnerability (PV) of Tabriz City corroborated the validity of the results obtained by ANP-ANN. The findings of this paper are useful for decision-makers and government authorities to obtain a better knowledge of a city's vulnerability dimensions, and to adopt preparedness strategies in the future for Tabriz City. The developed hybrid framework of ANP and ANN Models can easily be replicated and applied to other urban regions around the world for sustainability and environmental management

Earthquake risk assessment using an integrated Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process with Artificial Neural Networks based on GIS: A case study of Sanandaj in Iran

Earthquakes are natural phenomena, which induce natural hazard that seriously threatens urban areas, despite significant advances in retrofitting urban buildings and enhancing the knowledge and ability of experts in natural disaster control. Iran is one of the most seismically active countries in the world. The purpose of this study was to evaluate and analyze the extent of earthquake vulnerability in relation to demographic, environmental, and physical criteria. An earthquake risk assessment (ERA) map was created by using a Fuzzy-Analytic Hierarchy Process coupled with an Artificial Neural Networks (FAHP-ANN) model generating five vulnerability classes. Combining the application of a FAHP-ANN with a geographic information system (GIS) enabled to assign weights to the layers of the earthquake vulnerability criteria. The model was applied to Sanandaj City in Iran, located in the seismically active Sanandaj-Sirjan zone which is frequently affected by devastating earthquakes. The Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) model was implemented in the IDRISI software and 250 points were validated for grades 0 and 1. The validation process revealed that the proposed model can produce an earthquake probability map with an accuracy of 95%. A comparison of the results attained by using a FAHP, AHP and MLP model shows that the hybrid FAHP-ANN model proved flexible and reliable when generating the ERA map. The FAHP-ANN model accurately identified the highest earthquake vulnerability in densely populated areas with dilapidated building infrastructure. The findings of this study are useful for decision makers with a scientific basis to develop earthquake risk management strategies

Integrated model for earthquake risk assessment using neural network and analytic hierarchy process: Aceh province, Indonesia

© 2019 China University of Geosciences (Beijing) and Peking University Catastrophic natural hazards, such as earthquake, pose serious threats to properties and human lives in urban areas. Therefore, earthquake risk assessment (ERA) is indispensable in disaster management. ERA is an integration of the extent of probability and vulnerability of assets. This study develops an integrated model by using the artificial neural network–analytic hierarchy process (ANN–AHP) model for constructing the ERA map. The aim of the study is to quantify urban population risk that may be caused by impending earthquakes. The model is applied to the city of Banda Aceh in Indonesia, a seismically active zone of Aceh province frequently affected by devastating earthquakes. ANN is used for probability mapping, whereas AHP is used to assess urban vulnerability after the hazard map is created with the aid of earthquake intensity variation thematic layering. The risk map is subsequently created by combining the probability, hazard, and vulnerability maps. Then, the risk levels of various zones are obtained. The validation process reveals that the proposed model can map the earthquake probability based on historical events with an accuracy of 84%. Furthermore, results show that the central and southeastern regions of the city have moderate to very high risk classifications, whereas the other parts of the city fall under low to very low earthquake risk classifications. The findings of this research are useful for government agencies and decision makers, particularly in estimating risk dimensions in urban areas and for the future studies to project the preparedness strategies for Banda Aceh

Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment using Expert-based Approach in GIS

© 2019 IEEE. Several techniques of earthquake vulnerability assessment exist for the evaluation of social, economic and buildings vulnerability that has been carried out to investigate their suitability in the application of earthquake risk assessment. The primary challenge is the prediction of earthquakes that is almost seemingly impossible in the current time. The main concern is mitigation and preparedness, which is dominant for the human, animals, and environment. However, exposed assets and the determination of their fragilities/vulnerabilities are essential and will be challenging in the future for the viability and reliability during the assessment of rapid loss. Therefore, this study proposes an expert's decision-based approach for the assessment of earthquake vulnerability in Banda Aceh city, Indonesia that could help in future risk assessment on a city scale. It was analysed that the proposed method adequately satisfies all the necessary criteria that can be involved in earthquake vulnerability assessment in Banda Aceh city to reduce the earthquake impacts. The results shows that the proposed method is good for city-scale earthquake vulnerability assessment with significant consistency ratio of 0.04. This research observes the current practices involved in regional and urban earthquake vulnerability assessment

Earthquake vulnerability assessment for urban areas using an ann and hybrid swot-qspm model

Tabriz city in NW Iran is a seismic-prone province with recurring devastating earthquakes that have resulted in heavy casualties and damages. This research developed a new computational framework to investigate four main dimensions of vulnerability (environmental, social, economic and physical). An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Model and a SWOT-Quantitative Strategic Planning Matrix (QSPM) were applied. Firstly, a literature review was performed to explore indicators with significant impact on aforementioned dimensions of vulnerability to earthquakes. Next, the twenty identified indicators were analyzed in ArcGIS, a geographic information system (GIS) software, to map earthquake vulnerability. After classification and reclassification of the layers, standardized maps were presented as input to a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Self-Organizing Map (SOM) neural network. The resulting Earthquake Vulnerability Maps (EVMs) showed five categories of vulnerability ranging from very high, to high, moderate, low and very low. Accordingly, out of the nine municipality zones in Tabriz city, Zone one was rated as the most vulnerable to earthquakes while Zone seven was rated as the least vulnerable. Vulnerability to earthquakes of residential buildings was also identified. To validate the results data were compared between a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and a Self-Organizing Map (SOM). The scatter plots showed strong correlations between the vulnerability ratings of the different zones achieved by the SOM and MLP. Finally, the hybrid SWOT-QSPM paradigm was proposed to identify and evaluate strategies for hazard mitigation of the most vulnerable zone. For hazard mitigation in this zone we recommend to diligently account for environmental phenomena in designing and locating of sites. The findings are useful for decision makers and government authorities to reconsider current natural disaster management strategies

Pathways and challenges of the application of artificial intelligence to geohazards modelling

© 2020 International Association for Gondwana Research The application of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning in geohazard modelling has been rapidly growing in recent years, a trend that is observed in several research and application areas thanks to recent advances in AI. As a result, the increasing dependence on data driven studies has made its practical applications towards geohazards (landslides, debris flows, earthquakes, droughts, floods, glacier studies) an interesting prospect. These aforementioned geohazards were responsible for roughly 80% of the economic loss in the past two decades caused by all natural hazards. The present study analyses the various domains of geohazards which have benefited from classical machine learning approaches and highlights the future course of direction in this field. The emergence of deep learning has fulfilled several gaps in: i) classification; ii) seasonal forecasting as well as forecasting at longer lead times; iii) temporal based change detection. Apart from the usual challenges of dataset availability, climate change and anthropogenic activities, this review paper emphasizes that the future studies should focus on consecutive events along with integration of physical models. The recent catastrophe in Japan and Australia makes a compelling argument to focus towards consecutive events. The availability of higher temporal resolution and multi-hazard dataset will prove to be essential, but the key would be to integrate it with physical models which would improve our understanding of the mechanism involved both in single and consecutive hazard scenario. Geohazards would eventually be a data problem, like geosciences, and therefore it is essential to develop models that would be capable of handling large voluminous data. The future works should also revolve towards interpretable models with the hope of providing a reasonable explanation of the results, thereby achieving the ultimate goal of Explainable AI

Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) model for seismic vulnerability assessment (SVA) of urban residential buildings

© 2018 by the authors. Earthquakes are among the most catastrophic natural geo-hazards worldwide and endanger numerous lives annually. Therefore, it is vital to evaluate seismic vulnerability beforehand to decrease future fatalities. The aim of this research is to assess the seismic vulnerability of residential houses in an urban region on the basis of the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) model, including the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and geographical information system (GIS). Tabriz city located adjacent to the North Tabriz Fault (NTF) in North-West Iran was selected as a case study. The NTF is one of the major seismogenic faults in the north-western part of Iran. First, several parameters such as distance to fault, percent of slope, and geology layers were used to develop a geotechnical map. In addition, the structural construction materials, building materials, size of building blocks, quality of buildings and buildings-floors were used as key factors impacting on the building’s structural vulnerability in residential areas. Subsequently, the AHP technique was adopted to measure the priority ranking, criteria weight (layers), and alternatives (classes) of every criterion through pair-wise comparison at all levels. Lastly, the layers of geotechnical and spatial structures were superimposed to design the seismic vulnerability map of buildings in the residential area of Tabriz city. The results showed that South and Southeast areas of Tabriz city exhibit low to moderate vulnerability, while some regions of the north-eastern area are under severe vulnerability conditions. In conclusion, the suggested approach offers a practical and effective evaluation of Seismic Vulnerability Assessment (SVA) and provides valuable information that could assist urban planners during mitigation and preparatory phases of less examined areas in many other regions around the world

Review article: The spatial dimension in the assessment of urban socio-economic vulnerability related to geohazards

Society and economy are only two of the dimensions of vulnerability. This paper aims to elucidate the state of the art of data sources, spatial variables, indicators, methods, indexes and tools for the spatial assessment of socio-economic vulnerability (SEV) related to geohazards. This review was first conducted in December 2018 and re-run in March 2020 for the period between 2010 and 2020. The gross number of articles reviewed was 27, from which we identified 18 relevant references using a revised search query and six relevant references identified using the initial query, giving a total sample of 24 references. The most common source of data remains population censuses. The most recurrent spatial variable used for the assessment of SEV is households without basic services, while critical facilities are the most frequent spatial category. Traditional methods have been combined with more innovative and complex methods to select and weight spatial indicators and develop indices. The Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI®) remains the benchmark for the assessment of SEV and a reference for its spatial assessment. Geographic information systems (GIS) is the most common tool for conducting a spatial assessment of SEV regarding geohazards. For future spatial assessments of SEV regarding geohazards, we recommend considering 3-D spatial indexes at the microscale at the urban level and involving the community in the assessments

Earthquake risk assessment in NE India using deep learning and geospatial analysis

Earthquake prediction is currently the most crucial task required for the probability, hazard, risk mapping, and mitigation purposes. Earthquake prediction attracts the researchers' attention from both academia and industries. Traditionally, the risk assessment approaches have used various traditional and machine learning models. However, deep learning techniques have been rarely tested for earthquake probability mapping. Therefore, this study develops a convolutional neural network (CNN) model for earthquake probability assessment in NE India. Then conducts vulnerability using analytical hierarchy process (AHP), Venn's intersection theory for hazard, and integrated model for risk mapping. A prediction of classification task was performed in which the model predicts magnitudes more than 4 Mw that considers nine indicators. Prediction classification results and intensity variation were then used for probability and hazard mapping, respectively. Finally, earthquake risk map was produced by multiplying hazard, vulnerability, and coping capacity. The vulnerability was prepared by using six vulnerable factors, and the coping capacity was estimated by using the number of hospitals and associated variables, including budget available for disaster management. The CNN model for a probability distribution is a robust technique that provides good accuracy. Results show that CNN is superior to the other algorithms, which completed the classification prediction task with an accuracy of 0.94, precision of 0.98, recall of 0.85, and F1 score of 0.91. These indicators were used for probability mapping, and the total area of hazard (21,412.94 Km ), vulnerability (480.98 Km ), and risk (34,586.10 Km ) was estimated. 2 2