A hierarchical fusion of expert opinion in the TBM

This is an abridged version of http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00112129/fr/We define a hierarchical method for expert opinion aggregation that combines consonant beliefs in the Transferable Belief Model. Experts are grouped into schools of thought, then opinions are aggregated using the cautious conjunction operator within groups and the non-interactive disjunction across. This method is illustrated with a real-world dataset including 16 experts

Continuous Improvement Through Knowledge-Guided Analysis in Experience Feedback

Continuous improvement in industrial processes is increasingly a key element of competitiveness for industrial systems. The management of experience feedback in this framework is designed to build, analyze and facilitate the knowledge sharing among problem solving practitioners of an organization in order to improve processes and products achievement. During Problem Solving Processes, the intellectual investment of experts is often considerable and the opportunities for expert knowledge exploitation are numerous: decision making, problem solving under uncertainty, and expert configuration. In this paper, our contribution relates to the structuring of a cognitive experience feedback framework, which allows a flexible exploitation of expert knowledge during Problem Solving Processes and a reuse such collected experience. To that purpose, the proposed approach uses the general principles of root cause analysis for identifying the root causes of problems or events, the conceptual graphs formalism for the semantic conceptualization of the domain vocabulary and the Transferable Belief Model for the fusion of information from different sources. The underlying formal reasoning mechanisms (logic-based semantics) in conceptual graphs enable intelligent information retrieval for the effective exploitation of lessons learned from past projects. An example will illustrate the application of the proposed approach of experience feedback processes formalization in the transport industry sector

Hybridization of Bayesian networks and belief functions to assess risk. Application to aircraft deconstruction

This paper aims to present a study on knowledge management for the disassembly of end-of-life aircraft. We propose a model using Bayesian networks to assess risk and present three approaches to integrate the belief functions standing for the representation of fuzzy and uncertain knowledge

Generalized Evidence Theory

Conflict management is still an open issue in the application of Dempster Shafer evidence theory. A lot of works have been presented to address this issue. In this paper, a new theory, called as generalized evidence theory (GET), is proposed. Compared with existing methods, GET assumes that the general situation is in open world due to the uncertainty and incomplete knowledge. The conflicting evidence is handled under the framework of GET. It is shown that the new theory can explain and deal with the conflicting evidence in a more reasonable way.Comment: 39 pages, 5 figure

Hierarchical fusion of expert opinion in the Transferable Belief Model, application on climate sensitivity

International audienceThis paper examines the fusion of conflicting and not independent expert opinion in the Transferable Belief Model. Regarding procedures that combine opinions symmetrically, when beliefs are bayesian the non-interactive disjunction works better than the non-interactive conjunction, cautious conjunction or Dempster's combination rule.Then a hierarchical fusion procedure based on the partition of experts into schools of thought is introduced, justified by the sociology of science concepts of epistemic communities and competing theories. Within groups, consonant beliefs are aggregated using the cautious conjunction operator, to pool together distinct streams of evidence without assuming that experts are independent. Across groups, the non-interactive disjunction is used, assuming that when several scientific theories compete, they can not be all true at the same time, but at least one will remain. This procedure balances points of view better than averaging: the number of experts holding a view is not essential.This is illustrated with a 16 experts real-world dataset on climate sensitivity from 1995. Climate sensitivity is a key parameter to assess the severity of the global warming issue. Comparing our findings with recent results suggests that, unfortunately, the plausibility that sensitivity is small (below 1.5C) has decreased since 1995, while the plausibility that it is above 4.5C remains high.Ce texte examine la fusion des opinions d'experts en situation de controverse scientifique, à l'aide du Modèle des Croyances Transférables.Parmi les procédures qui combinent les experts symétriquement, nous constatons que lorsque les croyances sont bayésiennes (une modélisation classique s'appuyant sur les probabilités), l'opérateur de disjonction non-interactif donne de meilleurs résultats que les autres (conjonction prudente, la conjonction non-interactive, règle de Dempster).Puis nous proposons une procédure de fusion hiérarchique. En premier lieu, une partition des experts en écoles de pensée est réalisée à l'aide des méthodes de sociologie des sciences. Puis les croyances sont agrégées à l'intérieur des groupes avec l'opérateur de conjonction prudente: on suppose que tous les experts sont fiables, mais pas qu'ils constituent des sources d'information indépendantes entre elles. Enfin les groupes sont combinés entre eux par l'opérateur de disjonction non-interactive: on suppose qu'au moins l'une des écoles de pensée s'imposera, sans dire laquelle. Cette procédure offre un meilleur équilibre des points de vue que la simple moyenne, en particulier elle ne pondère pas les opinions par le nombre d'experts qui y souscrivent.La méthode est illustrée avec un jeu de données de 1995 obtenu en interrogeant 16 experts à propos de la sensibilité climatique (le paramètre clé exprimant la gravité du problème du réchauffement global). La comparaison de nos résultats avec la littérature récente montre que, hélas, la plausibilité que ce paramètre soit relativement faible (moins que 1.5C) a diminué depuis 1995, alors que la plausibilité qu'il soit au delà de 4.5C n'a pas décru

A Hierarchical Flexible Coarsening Method to Combine BBAs in Probabilities

In many applications involving epistemic uncertainties usually modeled by belief functions, it is often necessary to approximate general (non-Bayesian) basic belief assignments (BBAs) to subjective probabilities (called Bayesian BBAs). This necessity occurs if one needs to embed the fusion result in a system based on the probabilistic framework and Bayesian inference (e.g. tracking systems), or if one wants to use classical decision theory to make a decision. There exists already several methods (probabilistic transforms) to approximate any general BBA to a Bayesian BBA

Advances and Applications of Dezert-Smarandache Theory (DSmT) for Information Fusion (Collected Works), Vol. 4

The fourth volume on Advances and Applications of Dezert-Smarandache Theory (DSmT) for information fusion collects theoretical and applied contributions of researchers working in different fields of applications and in mathematics. The contributions (see List of Articles published in this book, at the end of the volume) have been published or presented after disseminating the third volume (2009, http://fs.unm.edu/DSmT-book3.pdf) in international conferences, seminars, workshops and journals. First Part of this book presents the theoretical advancement of DSmT, dealing with Belief functions, conditioning and deconditioning, Analytic Hierarchy Process, Decision Making, Multi-Criteria, evidence theory, combination rule, evidence distance, conflicting belief, sources of evidences with different importance and reliabilities, importance of sources, pignistic probability transformation, Qualitative reasoning under uncertainty, Imprecise belief structures, 2-Tuple linguistic label, Electre Tri Method, hierarchical proportional redistribution, basic belief assignment, subjective probability measure, Smarandache codification, neutrosophic logic, Evidence theory, outranking methods, Dempster-Shafer Theory, Bayes fusion rule, frequentist probability, mean square error, controlling factor, optimal assignment solution, data association, Transferable Belief Model, and others. More applications of DSmT have emerged in the past years since the apparition of the third book of DSmT 2009. Subsequently, the second part of this volume is about applications of DSmT in correlation with Electronic Support Measures, belief function, sensor networks, Ground Moving Target and Multiple target tracking, Vehicle-Born Improvised Explosive Device, Belief Interacting Multiple Model filter, seismic and acoustic sensor, Support Vector Machines, Alarm classification, ability of human visual system, Uncertainty Representation and Reasoning Evaluation Framework, Threat Assessment, Handwritten Signature Verification, Automatic Aircraft Recognition, Dynamic Data-Driven Application System, adjustment of secure communication trust analysis, and so on. Finally, the third part presents a List of References related with DSmT published or presented along the years since its inception in 2004, chronologically ordered

Advances and Applications of Dezert-Smarandache Theory (DSmT) for Information Fusion (Collected works), Vol. 2

This second volume dedicated to Dezert-Smarandache Theory (DSmT) in Information Fusion brings in new fusion quantitative rules (such as the PCR1-6, where PCR5 for two sources does the most mathematically exact redistribution of conflicting masses to the non-empty sets in the fusion literature), qualitative fusion rules, and the Belief Conditioning Rule (BCR) which is different from the classical conditioning rule used by the fusion community working with the Mathematical Theory of Evidence. Other fusion rules are constructed based on T-norm and T-conorm (hence using fuzzy logic and fuzzy set in information fusion), or more general fusion rules based on N-norm and N-conorm (hence using neutrosophic logic and neutrosophic set in information fusion), and an attempt to unify the fusion rules and fusion theories. The known fusion rules are extended from the power set to the hyper-power set and comparison between rules are made on many examples. One defines the degree of intersection of two sets, degree of union of two sets, and degree of inclusion of two sets which all help in improving the all existing fusion rules as well as the credibility, plausibility, and communality functions. The book chapters are written by Frederic Dambreville, Milan Daniel, Jean Dezert, Pascal Djiknavorian, Dominic Grenier, Xinhan Huang, Pavlina Dimitrova Konstantinova, Xinde Li, Arnaud Martin, Christophe Osswald, Andrew Schumann, Tzvetan Atanasov Semerdjiev, Florentin Smarandache, Albena Tchamova, and Min Wang

Organising a photograph collection based on human appearance

This thesis describes a complete framework for organising digital photographs in an unsupervised manner, based on the appearance of people captured in the photographs. Organising a collection of photographs manually, especially providing the identities of people captured in photographs, is a time consuming task. Unsupervised grouping of images containing similar persons makes annotating names easier (as a group of images can be named at once) and enables quick search based on query by example. The full process of unsupervised clustering is discussed in this thesis. Methods for locating facial components are discussed and a technique based on colour image segmentation is proposed and tested. Additionally a method based on the Principal Component Analysis template is tested, too. These provide eye locations required for acquiring a normalised facial image. This image is then preprocessed by a histogram equalisation and feathering, and the features of MPEG-7 face recognition descriptor are extracted. A distance measure proposed in the MPEG-7 standard is used as a similarity measure. Three approaches to grouping that use only face recognition features for clustering are analysed. These are modified k-means, single-link and a method based on a nearest neighbour classifier. The nearest neighbour-based technique is chosen for further experiments with fusing information from several sources. These sources are context-based such as events (party, trip, holidays), the ownership of photographs, and content-based such as information about the colour and texture of the bodies of humans appearing in photographs. Two techniques are proposed for fusing event and ownership (user) information with the face recognition features: a Transferable Belief Model (TBM) and three level clustering. The three level clustering is carried out at “event” level, “user” level and “collection” level. The latter technique proves to be most efficient. For combining body information with the face recognition features, three probabilistic fusion methods are tested. These are the average sum, the generalised product and the maximum rule. Combinations are tested within events and within user collections. This work concludes with a brief discussion on extraction of key images for a representation of each cluster