215,245 research outputs found

    From Discounting to Incorporating Decisions\u27 Long-Term Impacts

    Get PDF
    Ms. Atherton urges a different approach to valuing the impact of present day decisions on future generations

    Evidence Propagation and Consensus Formation in Noisy Environments

    Full text link
    We study the effectiveness of consensus formation in multi-agent systems where there is both belief updating based on direct evidence and also belief combination between agents. In particular, we consider the scenario in which a population of agents collaborate on the best-of-n problem where the aim is to reach a consensus about which is the best (alternatively, true) state from amongst a set of states, each with a different quality value (or level of evidence). Agents' beliefs are represented within Dempster-Shafer theory by mass functions and we investigate the macro-level properties of four well-known belief combination operators for this multi-agent consensus formation problem: Dempster's rule, Yager's rule, Dubois & Prade's operator and the averaging operator. The convergence properties of the operators are considered and simulation experiments are conducted for different evidence rates and noise levels. Results show that a combination of updating on direct evidence and belief combination between agents results in better consensus to the best state than does evidence updating alone. We also find that in this framework the operators are robust to noise. Broadly, Yager's rule is shown to be the better operator under various parameter values, i.e. convergence to the best state, robustness to noise, and scalability.Comment: 13th international conference on Scalable Uncertainty Managemen

    KEMNAD: A Knowledge Engineering Methodology for Negotiating Agent Development

    Get PDF
    Automated negotiation is widely applied in various domains. However, the development of such systems is a complex knowledge and software engineering task. So, a methodology there will be helpful. Unfortunately, none of existing methodologies can offer sufficient, detailed support for such system development. To remove this limitation, this paper develops a new methodology made up of: (1) a generic framework (architectural pattern) for the main task, and (2) a library of modular and reusable design pattern (templates) of subtasks. Thus, it is much easier to build a negotiating agent by assembling these standardised components rather than reinventing the wheel each time. Moreover, since these patterns are identified from a wide variety of existing negotiating agents(especially high impact ones), they can also improve the quality of the final systems developed. In addition, our methodology reveals what types of domain knowledge need to be input into the negotiating agents. This in turn provides a basis for developing techniques to acquire the domain knowledge from human users. This is important because negotiation agents act faithfully on the behalf of their human users and thus the relevant domain knowledge must be acquired from the human users. Finally, our methodology is validated with one high impact system

    Antecedents and consequences of effectuation and causation in the international new venture creation process

    Get PDF
    The selection of the entry mode in an international market is of key importance for the venture. A process-based perspective on entry mode selection can add to the International Business and International Entrepreneurship literature. Framing the international market entry as an entrepreneurial process, this paper analyzes the antecedents and consequences of causation and effectuation in the entry mode selection. For the analysis, regression-based techniques were used on a sample of 65 gazelles. The results indicate that experienced entrepreneurs tend to apply effectuation rather than causation, while uncertainty does not have a systematic influence. Entrepreneurs using causation-based international new venture creation processes tend to engage in export-type entry modes, while effectuation-based international new venture creation processes do not predetermine the entry mod

    Social science perspectives on natural hazards risk and uncertainty

    Get PDF

    Uncertainty in Ontologies: Dempster-Shafer Theory for Data Fusion Applications

    Full text link
    Nowadays ontologies present a growing interest in Data Fusion applications. As a matter of fact, the ontologies are seen as a semantic tool for describing and reasoning about sensor data, objects, relations and general domain theories. In addition, uncertainty is perhaps one of the most important characteristics of the data and information handled by Data Fusion. However, the fundamental nature of ontologies implies that ontologies describe only asserted and veracious facts of the world. Different probabilistic, fuzzy and evidential approaches already exist to fill this gap; this paper recaps the most popular tools. However none of the tools meets exactly our purposes. Therefore, we constructed a Dempster-Shafer ontology that can be imported into any specific domain ontology and that enables us to instantiate it in an uncertain manner. We also developed a Java application that enables reasoning about these uncertain ontological instances.Comment: Workshop on Theory of Belief Functions, Brest: France (2010
    corecore