Modelling network travel time reliability under stochastic demand

A technique is proposed for estimating the probability distribution of total network travel time, in the light of normal day-to-day variations in the travel demand matrix over a road traffic network. A solution method is proposed, based on a single run of a standard traffic assignment model, which operates in two stages. In stage one, moments of the total travel time distribution are computed by an analytic method, based on the multivariate moments of the link flow vector. In stage two, a flexible family of density functions is fitted to these moments. It is discussed how the resulting distribution may in practice be used to characterise unreliability. Illustrative numerical tests are reported on a simple network, where the method is seen to provide a means for identifying sensitive or vulnerable links, and for examining the impact on network reliability of changes to link capacities. Computational considerations for large networks, and directions for further research, are discussed

Methodological and empirical challenges in modelling residential location choices

The modelling of residential locations is a key element in land use and transport planning. There are significant empirical and methodological challenges inherent in such modelling, however, despite recent advances both in the availability of spatial datasets and in computational and choice modelling techniques. One of the most important of these challenges concerns spatial aggregation. The housing market is characterised by the fact that it offers spatially and functionally heterogeneous products; as a result, if residential alternatives are represented as aggregated spatial units (as in conventional residential location models), the variability of dwelling attributes is lost, which may limit the predictive ability and policy sensitivity of the model. This thesis presents a modelling framework for residential location choice that addresses three key challenges: (i) the development of models at the dwelling-unit level, (ii) the treatment of spatial structure effects in such dwelling-unit level models, and (iii) problems associated with estimation in such modelling frameworks in the absence of disaggregated dwelling unit supply data. The proposed framework is applied to the residential location choice context in London. Another important challenge in the modelling of residential locations is the choice set formation problem. Most models of residential location choices have been developed based on the assumption that households consider all available alternatives when they are making location choices. Due the high search costs associated with the housing market, however, and the limited capacity of households to process information, the validity of this assumption has been an on-going debate among researchers. There have been some attempts in the literature to incorporate the cognitive capacities of households within discrete choice models of residential location: for instance, by modelling households’ choice sets exogenously based on simplifying assumptions regarding their spatial search behaviour (e.g., an anchor-based search strategy) and their characteristics. By undertaking an empirical comparison of alternative models within the context of residential location choice in the Greater London area this thesis investigates the feasibility and practicality of applying deterministic choice set formation approaches to capture the underlying search process of households. The thesis also investigates the uncertainty of choice sets in residential location choice modelling and proposes a simplified probabilistic choice set formation approach to model choice sets and choices simultaneously. The dwelling-level modelling framework proposed in this research is practice-ready and can be used to estimate residential location choice models at the level of dwelling units without requiring independent and disaggregated dwelling supply data. The empirical comparison of alternative exogenous choice set formation approaches provides a guideline for modellers and land use planners to avoid inappropriate choice set formation approaches in practice. Finally, the proposed simplified choice set formation model can be applied to model the behaviour of households in online real estate environments.Open Acces

On the interaction between Autonomous Mobility-on-Demand systems and the power network: models and coordination algorithms

We study the interaction between a fleet of electric, self-driving vehicles servicing on-demand transportation requests (referred to as Autonomous Mobility-on-Demand, or AMoD, system) and the electric power network. We propose a model that captures the coupling between the two systems stemming from the vehicles' charging requirements and captures time-varying customer demand and power generation costs, road congestion, battery depreciation, and power transmission and distribution constraints. We then leverage the model to jointly optimize the operation of both systems. We devise an algorithmic procedure to losslessly reduce the problem size by bundling customer requests, allowing it to be efficiently solved by off-the-shelf linear programming solvers. Next, we show that the socially optimal solution to the joint problem can be enforced as a general equilibrium, and we provide a dual decomposition algorithm that allows self-interested agents to compute the market clearing prices without sharing private information. We assess the performance of the mode by studying a hypothetical AMoD system in Dallas-Fort Worth and its impact on the Texas power network. Lack of coordination between the AMoD system and the power network can cause a 4.4% increase in the price of electricity in Dallas-Fort Worth; conversely, coordination between the AMoD system and the power network could reduce electricity expenditure compared to the case where no cars are present (despite the increased demand for electricity) and yield savings of up $147M/year. Finally, we provide a receding-horizon implementation and assess its performance with agent-based simulations. Collectively, the results of this paper provide a first-of-a-kind characterization of the interaction between electric-powered AMoD systems and the power network, and shed additional light on the economic and societal value of AMoD.Comment: Extended version of the paper presented at Robotics: Science and Systems XIV, in prep. for journal submission. In V3, we add a proof that the socially-optimal solution can be enforced as a general equilibrium, a privacy-preserving distributed optimization algorithm, a description of the receding-horizon implementation and additional numerical results, and proofs of all theorem

On the interaction between Autonomous Mobility-on-Demand systems and the power network: models and coordination algorithms

We study the interaction between a fleet of electric, self-driving vehicles servicing on-demand transportation requests (referred to as Autonomous Mobility-on-Demand, or AMoD, system) and the electric power network. We propose a model that captures the coupling between the two systems stemming from the vehicles' charging requirements and captures time-varying customer demand and power generation costs, road congestion, battery depreciation, and power transmission and distribution constraints. We then leverage the model to jointly optimize the operation of both systems. We devise an algorithmic procedure to losslessly reduce the problem size by bundling customer requests, allowing it to be efficiently solved by off-the-shelf linear programming solvers. Next, we show that the socially optimal solution to the joint problem can be enforced as a general equilibrium, and we provide a dual decomposition algorithm that allows self-interested agents to compute the market clearing prices without sharing private information. We assess the performance of the mode by studying a hypothetical AMoD system in Dallas-Fort Worth and its impact on the Texas power network. Lack of coordination between the AMoD system and the power network can cause a 4.4% increase in the price of electricity in Dallas-Fort Worth; conversely, coordination between the AMoD system and the power network could reduce electricity expenditure compared to the case where no cars are present (despite the increased demand for electricity) and yield savings of up $147M/year. Finally, we provide a receding-horizon implementation and assess its performance with agent-based simulations. Collectively, the results of this paper provide a first-of-a-kind characterization of the interaction between electric-powered AMoD systems and the power network, and shed additional light on the economic and societal value of AMoD.Comment: Extended version of the paper presented at Robotics: Science and Systems XIV and accepted by TCNS. In Version 4, the body of the paper is largely rewritten for clarity and consistency, and new numerical simulations are presented. All source code is available (MIT) at https://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.324165

Seismic Risk Analysis of Revenue Losses, Gross Regional Product and transportation systems.

Natural threats like earthquakes, hurricanes or tsunamis have shown seri- ous impacts on communities. In the past, major earthquakes in the United States like Loma Prieta 1989, Northridge 1994, or recent events in Italy like L’Aquila 2009 or Emilia 2012 earthquake emphasized the importance of pre- paredness and awareness to reduce social impacts. Earthquakes impacted businesses and dramatically reduced the gross regional product. Seismic Hazard is traditionally assessed using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Anal- ysis (PSHA). PSHA well represents the hazard at a specific location, but it’s unsatisfactory for spatially distributed systems. Scenario earthquakes overcome the problem representing the actual distribution of shaking over a spatially distributed system. The performance of distributed productive systems during the recovery process needs to be explored. Scenario earthquakes have been used to assess the risk in bridge networks and the social losses in terms of gross regional product reduction. The proposed method for scenario earthquakes has been applied to a real case study: Treviso, a city in the North East of Italy. The proposed method for scenario earthquakes requires three models: one representation of the sources (Italian Seismogenic Zonation 9), one attenuation relationship (Sa- betta and Pugliese 1996) and a model of the occurrence rate of magnitudes (Gutenberg Richter). A methodology has been proposed to reduce thou- sands of scenarios to a subset consistent with the hazard at each location. Earthquake scenarios, along with Mote Carlo method, have been used to simulate business damage. The response of business facilities to earthquake has been obtained from fragility curves for precast industrial building. Fur- thermore, from business damage the reduction of productivity has been simulated using economic data from the National statistical service and a proposed piecewise “loss of functionality model”. To simulate the economic process in the time domain, an innovative businesses recovery function has been proposed. The proposed method has been applied to generate scenarios earthquakes at the location of bridges and business areas. The proposed selection method- ology has been applied to reduce 8000 scenarios to a subset of 60. Subse- quently, these scenario earthquakes have been used to calculate three system performance parameters: the risk in transportation networks, the risk in terms of business damage and the losses of gross regional product. A novel model for business recovery process has been tested. The proposed model has been used to represent the business recovery process and simulate the effects of government aids allocated for reconstruction. The proposed method has efficiently modeled the seismic hazard using scenario earthquakes. The scenario earthquakes presented have been used to assess possible consequences of earthquakes in seismic prone zones and to increase the preparedness. Scenario earthquakes have been used to sim- ulate the effects to economy of the impacted area; a significant Gross Regional Product reduction has been shown, up to 77% with an earthquake with 0.0003 probability of occurrence. The results showed that limited funds available after the disaster can be distributed in a more efficient way

The dynamics of iterated transportation simulations

Iterating between a router and a traffic micro-simulation is an increasibly accepted method for doing traffic assignment. This paper, after pointing out that the analytical theory of simulation-based assignment to-date is insufficient for some practical cases, presents results of simulation studies from a real world study. Specifically, we look into the issues of uniqueness, variability, and robustness and validation. Regarding uniqueness, despite some cautionary notes from a theoretical point of view, we find no indication of ``meta-stable'' states for the iterations. Variability however is considerable. By variability we mean the variation of the simulation of a given plan set by just changing the random seed. We show then results from three different micro-simulations under the same iteration scenario in order to test for the robustness of the results under different implementations. We find the results encouraging, also when comparing to reality and with a traditional assignment result. Keywords: dynamic traffic assignment (DTA); traffic micro-simulation; TRANSIMS; large-scale simulations; urban planningComment: 24 pages, 7 figure