A synthesis of logic and bio-inspired techniques in the design of dependable systems

Much of the development of model-based design and dependability analysis in the design of dependable systems, including software intensive systems, can be attributed to the application of advances in formal logic and its application to fault forecasting and verification of systems. In parallel, work on bio-inspired technologies has shown potential for the evolutionary design of engineering systems via automated exploration of potentially large design spaces. We have not yet seen the emergence of a design paradigm that effectively combines these two techniques, schematically founded on the two pillars of formal logic and biology, from the early stages of, and throughout, the design lifecycle. Such a design paradigm would apply these techniques synergistically and systematically to enable optimal refinement of new designs which can be driven effectively by dependability requirements. The paper sketches such a model-centric paradigm for the design of dependable systems, presented in the scope of the HiP-HOPS tool and technique, that brings these technologies together to realise their combined potential benefits. The paper begins by identifying current challenges in model-based safety assessment and then overviews the use of meta-heuristics at various stages of the design lifecycle covering topics that span from allocation of dependability requirements, through dependability analysis, to multi-objective optimisation of system architectures and maintenance schedules

Automatic allocation of safety requirements to components of a software product line

Safety critical systems developed as part of a product line must still comply with safety standards. Standards use the concept of Safety Integrity Levels (SILs) to drive the assignment of system safety requirements to components of a system under design. However, for a Software Product Line (SPL), the safety requirements that need to be allocated to a component may vary in different products. Variation in design can indeed change the possible hazards incurred in each product, their causes, and can alter the safety requirements placed on individual components in different SPL products. Establishing common SILs for components of a large scale SPL by considering all possible usage scenarios, is desirable for economies of scale, but it also poses challenges to the safety engineering process. In this paper, we propose a method for automatic allocation of SILs to components of a product line. The approach is applied to a Hybrid Braking System SPL design

Developing a risk assessment model using fuzzy logic to assess groundwater contamination from hydraulic fracturing

Technological advances in directional drilling has led to rapid exploitation of onshore unconventional hydrocarbons using a technique known as hydraulic fracturing. This process took off initially in the US, with Canada following closely behind, but brought with it controversial debates over environmental protection, particularly in relation to groundwater contamination and well integrity failure. Prospective shale gas regions lie across areas in Europe but countries such as the UK are facing public and government turmoil surrounding their potential exploitation. This extent of energy development requires detailed risk analysis to eliminate or mitigate damage to the natural environment. Subsurface energy activities involve complex processes and uncertain data, making comprehensive, quantitative risk assessments a challenge to develop. A new, alternative methodology was applied to onshore hydraulic fracturing to assess the risk of groundwater contamination during well injection and production. The techniques used deterministic models to construct failure scenarios with respect to groundwater contamination, stochastic approaches to determine component failures of a well, and fuzzy logic to address insufficiency or complexity in data. The framework was successfully developed using available data and regulations in British Columbia (BC), Canada. Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FFTA) was demonstrated as a more robust technique compared with conventional Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and implemented successfully to quantify cement failure. A collection of known risk analysis methods such as Event Tree Analysis (ETA), Time at Risk Failure (TRF) and Mean Time To Failure (MTTF) models were successfully applied to well integrity failure during injection, with the novel addition of quantifying cement failures. An analytical model for Surface Casing Pressure (SCP) during well production highlighted data gaps on well constructions so a fuzzy logic model was built to a 93% accuracy to determine the location of cement in a well. This novel application of fuzzy logic allowed the calculation of gas flow rate into an annulus and hence the probability of well integrity failure during production using ETA. The framework quantified several risk pathways across multiple stages of a well using site-specific data, but was successfully applied to a UK case study where there existed significant differences in geology, well construction and regulations. The application required little extra work and demonstrated the success and limitations of the model and where future work could improve model development. This research indicated that risks to groundwater from hydraulic fracturing differ substantially depending on well construction. Weighing up the risk to groundwater compared with financial gain for well construction will be essential for decision-makers and policy. To reduce the social anxiety of hydraulic fracturing in the UK, decision-makers who face criticism must ensure information is disseminated properly to the public with a well-defined risk analysis which can be interpreted easily without prerequisite knowledge. Finally, although this research is based on onshore hydraulic fracturing, the risk assessment techniques are generic enough to allow application of this research to other subsurface activities such as CO2 sequestration, waste injection disposal and geothermal energy.Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC

CO2 geological storage safety assessment: methodological developments

International audienceCarbon dioxide capture and geological storage is seen as a promising technology to mitigate greenhouse gas atmospheric emissions. Its wide-scale implementation necessitates demonstrating its safety for humans and the environment. We have developed a generic approach to provide references for safety assessment of CO2 storage. It is composed of a series of simple tools for identifying risk scenarios, modelling risk events and exposure. It incorporates a rigorous management of uncertainty, distinguishing between variability and knowledge incompleteness. We applied this approach on a case study in the Paris Basin. This demonstrates how it delivers conditions mixing qualitative and quantitative elements for guaranteeing safety. This approach is flexible; it can be used for various sites and with various amounts of data. It can be carried out in a time-efficient manner at various stages of a project. In particular, it provides an operator or an authority with safety indicators in an early phase or for reviewing a risk assessment. Though not a complete risk assessment workflow, it thus partly compensates for the current lack of commonly acknowledged assessment methods or safety standards for CO2 geological storage

Landslide Risk: Economic Valuation in the North-Eastern Zone of Medellin City

Natural disasters of a geodynamic nature can cause enormous economic and human losses. The economic costs of a landslide disaster include relocation of communities and physical repair of urban infrastructure. However, when performing a quantitative risk analysis, generally, the indirect economic consequences of such an event are not taken into account. A probabilistic approach methodology that considers several scenarios of hazard and vulnerability to measure the magnitude of the landslide and to quantify the economic costs is proposed. With this approach, it is possible to carry out a quantitative evaluation of the risk by landslides, allowing the calculation of the economic losses before a potential disaster in an objective, standardized and reproducible way, taking into account the uncertainty of the building costs in the study zone. The possibility of comparing different scenarios facilitates the urban planning process, the optimization of interventions to reduce risk to acceptable levels and an assessment of economic losses according to the magnitude of the damage. For the development and explanation of the proposed methodology, a simple case study is presented, located in north-eastern zone of the city of Medellín. This area has particular geomorphological characteristics, and it is also characterized by the presence of several buildings in bad structural conditions. The proposed methodology permits to obtain an estimative of the probable economic losses by earthquake-induced landslides, taking into account the uncertainty of the building costs in the study zone. The obtained estimative shows that the structural intervention of the buildings produces a reduction the order of 21 % in the total landslide risk. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd

Probabilistic analysis of bearing capacity of piles with variable parameters in cpt test and calculation according to the requirements

A probabilistic concept for determining pile bearing capacity is presented, taking into account the variability of CPT test parameters and methodology of calculation according to the requirements of Eurocode 7 (EN 1997-1: 2004). Based on a single initial (real) CPT test, a larger number of generated (simulation) CPT tests are introduced drawn from solutions of statistics and probability theory. Research has found that the best solutions are achieved using the DA 2 design approach for n(CPT) > 10 tests. Taking into account the deterministic and probabilistic approach in the analysis of pile bearing capacity, it is found that for the DA 2 design approach, the ratio of pile bearing capacity obtained from simulation and the capacity as determined through three methods (Mazurkiewicz, Van der Veen and hyperbolic approximation) is Rcd, /Pu = 1.148. Using the reliability index, the following values of partial resistance factors are obtained: λ, s /P 1.1, λ, b /P 1.1, which also points to the DA 2 design approach