Uncertainty Analysis of the Adequacy Assessment Model of a Distributed Generation System

Due to the inherent aleatory uncertainties in renewable generators, the reliability/adequacy assessments of distributed generation (DG) systems have been particularly focused on the probabilistic modeling of random behaviors, given sufficient informative data. However, another type of uncertainty (epistemic uncertainty) must be accounted for in the modeling, due to incomplete knowledge of the phenomena and imprecise evaluation of the related characteristic parameters. In circumstances of few informative data, this type of uncertainty calls for alternative methods of representation, propagation, analysis and interpretation. In this study, we make a first attempt to identify, model, and jointly propagate aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the context of DG systems modeling for adequacy assessment. Probability and possibility distributions are used to model the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, respectively. Evidence theory is used to incorporate the two uncertainties under a single framework. Based on the plausibility and belief functions of evidence theory, the hybrid propagation approach is introduced. A demonstration is given on a DG system adapted from the IEEE 34 nodes distribution test feeder. Compared to the pure probabilistic approach, it is shown that the hybrid propagation is capable of explicitly expressing the imprecision in the knowledge on the DG parameters into the final adequacy values assessed. It also effectively captures the growth of uncertainties with higher DG penetration levels

Resilience Assignment Framework using System Dynamics and Fuzzy Logic.

This paper is concerned with the development of a conceptual framework that measures the resilience of the transport network under climate change related events. However, the conceptual framework could be adapted and quantified to suit each disruption’s unique impacts. The proposed resilience framework evaluates the changes in transport network performance in multi-stage processes; pre, during and after the disruption. The framework will be of use to decision makers in understanding the dynamic nature of resilience under various events. Furthermore, it could be used as an evaluation tool to gauge transport network performance and highlight weaknesses in the network. In this paper, the system dynamics approach and fuzzy logic theory are integrated and employed to study three characteristics of network resilience. The proposed methodology has been selected to overcome two dominant problems in transport modelling, namely complexity and uncertainty. The system dynamics approach is intended to overcome the double counting effect of extreme events on various resilience characteristics because of its ability to model the feedback process and time delay. On the other hand, fuzzy logic is used to model the relationships among different variables that are difficult to express in numerical form such as redundancy and mobility

Building Fuzzy Elevation Maps from a Ground-based 3D Laser Scan for Outdoor Mobile Robots

Mandow, A; Cantador, T.J.; Reina, A.J.; Martínez, J.L.; Morales, J.; García-Cerezo, A. "Building Fuzzy Elevation Maps from a Ground-based 3D Laser Scan for Outdoor Mobile Robots," Robot2015: Second Iberian Robotics Conference, Advances in Robotics, (2016) Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol. 418. This is a self-archiving copy of the author’s accepted manuscript. The final publication is available at Springer via http://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-27149-1.The paper addresses terrain modeling for mobile robots with fuzzy elevation maps by improving computational speed and performance over previous work on fuzzy terrain identification from a three-dimensional (3D) scan. To this end, spherical sub-sampling of the raw scan is proposed to select training data that does not filter out salient obstacles. Besides, rule structure is systematically defined by considering triangular sets with an unevenly distributed standard fuzzy partition and zero order Sugeno-type consequents. This structure, which favors a faster training time and reduces the number of rule parameters, also serves to compute a fuzzy reliability mask for the continuous fuzzy surface. The paper offers a case study using a Hokuyo-based 3D rangefinder to model terrain with and without outstanding obstacles. Performance regarding error and model size is compared favorably with respect to a solution that uses quadric-based surface simplification (QSlim).This work was partially supported by the Spanish CICYT project DPI 2011-22443, the Andalusian project PE-2010 TEP-6101, and Universidad de Málaga-Andalucía Tech

Modeling and Recognition of Smart Grid Faults by a Combined Approach of Dissimilarity Learning and One-Class Classification

Detecting faults in electrical power grids is of paramount importance, either from the electricity operator and consumer viewpoints. Modern electric power grids (smart grids) are equipped with smart sensors that allow to gather real-time information regarding the physical status of all the component elements belonging to the whole infrastructure (e.g., cables and related insulation, transformers, breakers and so on). In real-world smart grid systems, usually, additional information that are related to the operational status of the grid itself are collected such as meteorological information. Designing a suitable recognition (discrimination) model of faults in a real-world smart grid system is hence a challenging task. This follows from the heterogeneity of the information that actually determine a typical fault condition. The second point is that, for synthesizing a recognition model, in practice only the conditions of observed faults are usually meaningful. Therefore, a suitable recognition model should be synthesized by making use of the observed fault conditions only. In this paper, we deal with the problem of modeling and recognizing faults in a real-world smart grid system, which supplies the entire city of Rome, Italy. Recognition of faults is addressed by following a combined approach of multiple dissimilarity measures customization and one-class classification techniques. We provide here an in-depth study related to the available data and to the models synthesized by the proposed one-class classifier. We offer also a comprehensive analysis of the fault recognition results by exploiting a fuzzy set based reliability decision rule

Quality of Information in Mobile Crowdsensing: Survey and Research Challenges

Smartphones have become the most pervasive devices in people's lives, and are clearly transforming the way we live and perceive technology. Today's smartphones benefit from almost ubiquitous Internet connectivity and come equipped with a plethora of inexpensive yet powerful embedded sensors, such as accelerometer, gyroscope, microphone, and camera. This unique combination has enabled revolutionary applications based on the mobile crowdsensing paradigm, such as real-time road traffic monitoring, air and noise pollution, crime control, and wildlife monitoring, just to name a few. Differently from prior sensing paradigms, humans are now the primary actors of the sensing process, since they become fundamental in retrieving reliable and up-to-date information about the event being monitored. As humans may behave unreliably or maliciously, assessing and guaranteeing Quality of Information (QoI) becomes more important than ever. In this paper, we provide a new framework for defining and enforcing the QoI in mobile crowdsensing, and analyze in depth the current state-of-the-art on the topic. We also outline novel research challenges, along with possible directions of future work.Comment: To appear in ACM Transactions on Sensor Networks (TOSN

APPRAISAL OF TAKAGI–SUGENO TYPE NEURO-FUZZY NETWORK SYSTEM WITH A MODIFIED DIFFERENTIAL EVOLUTION METHOD TO PREDICT NONLINEAR WHEEL DYNAMICS CAUSED BY ROAD IRREGULARITIES

Wheel dynamics play a substantial role in traversing and controlling the vehicle, braking, ride comfort, steering, and maneuvering. The transient wheel dynamics are difficult to be ascertained in tire–obstacle contact condition. To this end, a single-wheel testing rig was utilized in a soil bin facility for provision of a controlled experimental medium. Differently manufactured obstacles (triangular and Gaussian shaped geometries) were employed at different obstacle heights, wheel loads, tire slippages and forward speeds to measure the forces induced at vertical and horizontal directions at tire–obstacle contact interface. A new Takagi–Sugeno type neuro-fuzzy network system with a modified Differential Evolution (DE) method was used to model wheel dynamics caused by road irregularities. DE is a robust optimization technique for complex and stochastic algorithms with ever expanding applications in real-world problems. It was revealed that the new proposed model can be served as a functional alternative to classical modeling tools for the prediction of nonlinear wheel dynamics

Using fuzzy logic to integrate neural networks and knowledge-based systems

Outlined here is a novel hybrid architecture that uses fuzzy logic to integrate neural networks and knowledge-based systems. The author's approach offers important synergistic benefits to neural nets, approximate reasoning, and symbolic processing. Fuzzy inference rules extend symbolic systems with approximate reasoning capabilities, which are used for integrating and interpreting the outputs of neural networks. The symbolic system captures meta-level information about neural networks and defines its interaction with neural networks through a set of control tasks. Fuzzy action rules provide a robust mechanism for recognizing the situations in which neural networks require certain control actions. The neural nets, on the other hand, offer flexible classification and adaptive learning capabilities, which are crucial for dynamic and noisy environments. By combining neural nets and symbolic systems at their system levels through the use of fuzzy logic, the author's approach alleviates current difficulties in reconciling differences between low-level data processing mechanisms of neural nets and artificial intelligence systems