Scenario of the organic food market in Europe

Scenario analysis is a qualitative tool for strategic policy analysis that enables researchers and policymakers to support decision making, and a systemic analysis of the main determinants of a business or sector. In this study, a scenario analysis is developed regarding the future development of the market of organic food products in Europe. The scenario follows a participatory approach, exploiting potential interactions among the relevant driving forces, as selected by experts. Network analysis is used to identify the roles of driving forces in the different scenarios, and the results are discussed in comparison with the main findings from existing scenarios on the future development of the organic sector

Analysis for biotechnology innovations using Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA):

" Meeting the food needs of the world's growing population while reducing poverty and protecting the environment is a major global challenge. Genetically modified crops appear to provide a promising option to deal with this challenge. However there is a need to make strategic decisions on how to spend limited agricultural research funds in order to achieve a maximum impact with regard to finding sustainable solutions to end hunger and poverty. In international development institutions, there is growing interest in the potential use of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) as part of a research based Environmental Management System (EMS) to promote mainstreaming of environmental considerations in policy development. SEA was developed as an approach to integrate environmental considerations at a policy level, where alternatives environmental policies can be evaluated. In this paper, we propose using SEA in a policy research and priority setting process regarding new technologies, taking the development of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) as an example. We propose that this method would be a useful tool for the international agricultural research centers of the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), streamlining business processes, strengthening accountability, sharpening the research agenda it supports, fostering broader partnerships, and increasing the relevance and impact of CGIAR research in achieving international development goals. Currently international law requires only Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) of specific biotechnology projects. The incorporation of environmental considerations only at the level of specific projects precludes the adoption of alternative environmental policies. In this review, we outline an SEA approach currently being considered at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) for use in evaluating biotechnology policies. SEA may be a useful tool to inform the evaluation of biotechnology policies and priorities by taking account of information on the economic, social, and environmental benefits, cost and risks of adopting those policies." Authors' AbstractRisk, Strategic Environmental Assessment, Genetically modified organisms, Living modified organisms,

What Risk Assessments of Genetically Modified Organisms Can Learn from Institutional Analyses of Public Health Risks

The risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are evaluated traditionally by combining hazard identification and exposure estimates to provide decision support for regulatory agencies. We question the utility of the classical risk paradigm and discuss its evolution in GMO risk assessment. First, we consider the problem of uncertainty, by comparing risk assessment for environmental toxins in the public health domain with genetically modified organisms in the environment; we use the specific comparison of an insecticide to a transgenic, insecticidal food crop. Next, we examine normal accident theory (NAT) as a heuristic to consider runaway effects of GMOs, such as negative community level consequences of gene flow from transgenic, insecticidal crops. These examples illustrate how risk assessments are made more complex and contentious by both their inherent uncertainty and the inevitability of failure beyond expectation in complex systems. We emphasize the value of conducting decision-support research, embracing uncertainty, increasing transparency, and building interdisciplinary institutions that can address the complex interactions between ecosystems and society. In particular, we argue against black boxing risk analysis, and for a program to educate policy makers about uncertainty and complexity, so that eventually, decision making is not the burden that falls upon scientists but is assumed by the public at large

Organic Farming in Europe by 2010: Scenarios for the future

How will organic farming in Europe evolve by the year 2010? The answer provides a basis for the development of different policy options and for anticipating the future relative competitiveness of organic and conventional farming. The authors tackle the question using an innovative approach based on scenario analysis, offering the reader a range of scenarios that encompass the main possible evolutions of the organic farming sector. This book constitutes an innovative and reliable decision-supporting tool for policy makers, farmers and the private sector. Researchers and students operating in the field of agricultural economics will also benefit from the methodological approach adopted for the scenario analysis

Multi-level Regulation of Agricultural Biotechnology: Determinants and Actor Strategies in Germany

This thesis investigates the regulation of agricultural biotechnology in the multi-level system of the European Union focussing specifically on the Federal Republic of Germany. In particular, it aims to provide an improved understanding of the determinants underlying regulatory action on subnational levels and certain strategies adopted by political parties and private companies to maximize their respective interests in the unpopular and contested field of agricultural biotechnology. Based on various data sources and the combination of different theoretical and methodical approaches, the thesis provides several important insights. It shows that German municipalities regulate the cultivation of genetically modified crops for various reasons, but most importantly because of functional motivations to prevent negative socio-economic effects or impacts on the environment and human health. For the regional level, the thesis reveals among other things that strong environmental interest groups have positively conditioned German states’ symbolic policy-making, but with seemingly no effect on the adoption of hard regulations. With regards to the actor strategies, it proves that parties, here the German CDU, strategically de-emphasize their unpopular positions on green genetic engineering for various reasons including coalition formation prospects with B’90/Grüne and increasingly diverging policy preferences of their regional branches. Finally, the thesis demonstrates that biotechnology firms make strategic use of specific opportunity structures by lobbying institutionally closed and favorably embedded policy venues at member state level aiming thereby to promote the de-regulation of new plant breeding technologies in the European Union

The ABCs and NTBs of GMOs: The Great European Union-United States Trade Debate - Do European Restrictions on the Trade of Genetically Modified Organisms Violate Internaitonal Trade Law

The genetic engineering of agriculture has spurred a lively worldwide discussion, and the technology has found both enthusiastic fans and formidable foes. Specifically, the United States has signed on as a proponent of the genetic modification of agriculture. In fact, the United States has become the largest producer of genetically modified organisms ( GMOs ) and is consequently the leading exporter of genetically modified goods. On the other side of this debate lies the European Community ( EC ). The European Community is much less enthusiastic about GMOs and effectively questions their presence in our environment and food products. The European Community has focused on the risks that GMOs potentially pose to environmental and human health, and accordingly, have regulated GMO trade. These markedly different positions have created strained trade relations between the United States and the European Community. The European Community believes that, in light of the scientific uncertainty and consumer mistrust surrounding GMOs, it is of utmost necessity to regulate GM goods in order to protect and preserve consumer and environmental health. The United States points out that the risks posed by GMOs are only potential, and that the prospective benefits of GM agriculture may be too great to sacrifice to precautionary measures. It appears, then, that the United States believes the European Community\u27s GMO regulation scheme to be simply thinly veiled protectionism in violation of international trade law, which ultimately reigns supreme over Community law. Consequently, the United States has looked to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade ( GATT ) and its accompanying Agreements, the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures ( SPS ) and the Agreement on Technical Barriers to Trade ( TBT ), to end the European Community\u27s restriction on GMO trade and to demonstrate that Europe\u27s protectionist measures amount to illegal Non-Trade Barriers ( NTBs ) according to the current international trade regime

Risk, regulation and innovation: The case of aquaculture and transgenic fish

Abstract.: This paper reviews the public and scientific debates over the risks and benefits of aquaculture and aquatic biotechnology worldwide, and in the United States in particular. The basic argument is that business tends to respond to uncertainty with innovation in management and technology. Technological evolution in the fish business is therefore interpreted as a continuous response to new environmental and socioeconomic uncertainties and subsequent regulation. The use of aquatic biotechnology in fish breeding is just the latest technological response, but also the most controversial. Growth-enhanced transgenic salmon may become the first bioengineered animal product approved for use as food in the United States. The fish may boost future salmon harvests, contribute to productivity increases in aquaculture and lower consumer prices for salmon. But it also faces public opposition, reluctant investors and scientific skepticism due to mainly environmental concerns. The paper argues that even though the regulatory framework in the United States is well-elaborated, it may not be able to reassure public opposition once transgenic salmon should be approved as a ‘new animal drug'. Analogous to genetically modified food crops, the consumer market rather than regulation will determine the ultimate fate of transgenic fis

GMOs in the internal market: new legislation on national flexibility

GMOs have shone the bright light of disagreement on features of EU administration and risk regulation that might otherwise have remained in the shadows. In the case of GMOs, risk assessment has not provided stable ‘facts’ about the world, and comitology has not provided a politically legitimate or effective solution. In an area where until now national autonomy has been tenaciously resisted, new EU legislation provides Member States with ‘flexibility to decide whether or not they wish to cultivate GMOs on their territory’. This forces attention on to the subtle, and not so subtle, ways in which internal market law constrains political actors in the EU. But it is similarly suggestive of how political actors might contribute to the evolution of the internal market. This article also reflects on which lessons from the past have been addressed in the new legislation. Whilst it takes somewhat seriously the politics of GMOs, the new legislation simultaneously reinforces some of the limitations of our dominant models for generating knowledge, including the EU’s problematic dichotomy between facts and values, risk assessment and risk managemen

Design and Evaluation of Ballast Water Management Systems using Modified and Hybridised Axiomatic Design Principles

There are two major motivations to this research. The first is based on the concerns raised at the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) MEPC 67 and 68 meetings regarding the capacity of some type-approved Ballast Water Management (BWM) Systems to meet the performance standard (D-2) of the BWM Convention at-all-times and in all conditions. The second is based on the reluctance expressed by some ship- owners to install the system onboard their ships as a Lloyd\u27s list survey suggested. In this work, an attempt was made to address these issues and concerns using a set of criteria stipulated in Regulation D-5.2 of the BWM Convention which provides the framework for reviewing and evaluating the practical concepts of managing ballast water, developing a conceptual model for managing ballast water and minimizing the contributions of human-error to BWM System performance by analyzing the associated operational human factors. Firstly, the design of a conceptual model of managing ballast water and the evaluation of some established practical concepts of BWM were achieved by using a suitable technique (Axiomatic Design or AD) which was selected via a robust procedure. The two axioms of Axiomatic Design (information and independence) were used to evaluate four different concepts of managing ballast water as well as develop a BWM Convention-compliant conceptual design matrix model respectively. Based on data collected from ballast water management experts, Post-loading Onshore Ballast Water Management System was shown to be the most appropriate ballast water management concept with respect to the Regulation D-5.2 set of criteria. This presents a paradigm shift in expert preference from traditional shipboard systems to onshore systems with respect to the IMO-criteria. The pathway for improved performance of the Convention-compliant design matrix was subsequently determined and prioritised using Sufield model of Altshuler\u27s theory of inventive problem solving (TRIZ). Lastly, a 5-step algorithm was developed to minimise operator errors in the BWM System’s operation. Fatigue and training were found to have the greatest impact on operator performance