Improved Decision-Making through a DEMATEL and Fuzzy Cognitive Maps-Based Framework

The decision-making process is highly demanding. There has been an increasing tendency to incorporate human thinking, individual experience about a problem, and pure mathematical approaches. Here, a novel integrated approach is investigated and proposed to develop an advanced hybrid decision-support system based on the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) and fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs). Indeed, knowledge acquisition and elicitation may present distortions and difficulties finding a consensus and an interpretation. Thus, the proposed combined approach aims to examine in depth the potential to improve FCMs' outcomes by integrating FCM with the DEMATEL approach. The combined methodology achieves at avoiding some of the drawbacks, such as the lack of a standardized FCM theoretical model. Thus, it provides advanced comparative analysis and results in better interpretation of the decision-making process. It is highlighted that the traditional FCM approach does not allow distinguishing the whole number of defined scenarios, in contrast to the hybrid one presented here, which increases the ability of users to make correct decisions. Combining the two approaches provides new capabilities to FCMs in grouping experts' knowledge, while the DEMATEL approach contributes to refining the strength of concepts' connections

Risk-based maintenance of critical and complex systems

Tableau d’honneur de la Faculté des études supérieures et postdoctorales, 2016-2017.De nos jours, la plupart des systèmes dans divers secteurs critiques tels que l'aviation, le pétrole et les soins de santé sont devenus très complexes et dynamiques, et par conséquent peuvent à tout moment s'arrêter de fonctionner. Pour éviter que cela ne se reproduise et ne devienne incontrôlable ce qui engagera des pertes énormes en matière de coûts et d'indisponibilité; l'adoption de stratégies de contrôle et de maintenance s'avèrent plus que nécessaire et même vitale. Dans le génie des procédés, les stratégies optimales de maintenance pour ces systèmes pourraient avoir un impact significatif sur la réduction des coûts et sur les temps d'arrêt, sur la maximisation de la fiabilité et de la productivité, sur l'amélioration de la qualité et enfin pour atteindre les objectifs souhaités des compagnies. En outre, les risques et les incertitudes associés à ces systèmes sont souvent composés de plusieurs relations de cause à effet de façon extrêmement complexe. Cela pourrait mener à une augmentation du nombre de défaillances de ces systèmes. Par conséquent, un outil d'analyse de défaillance avancée est nécessaire pour considérer les interactions complexes de défaillance des composants dans les différentes phases du cycle de vie du produit pour assurer les niveaux élevés de sécurité et de fiabilité. Dans cette thèse, on aborde dans un premier temps les lacunes des méthodes d'analyse des risques/échec et celles qui permettent la sélection d'une classe de stratégie de maintenance à adopter. Nous développons ensuite des approches globales pour la maintenance et l'analyse du processus de défaillance fondée sur les risques des systèmes et machines complexes connus pour être utilisées dans toutes les industries. Les recherches menées pour la concrétisation de cette thèse ont donné lieu à douze contributions importantes qui se résument comme suit: Dans la première contribution, on aborde les insuffisances des méthodes en cours de sélection de la stratégie de maintenance et on développe un cadre fondé sur les risques en utilisant des méthodes dites du processus de hiérarchie analytique (Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), de cartes cognitives floues (Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM)), et la théorie des ensembles flous (Fuzzy Soft Sets (FSS)) pour sélectionner la meilleure politique de maintenance tout en considérant les incertitudes. La deuxième contribution aborde les insuffisances de la méthode de l'analyse des modes de défaillance, de leurs effets et de leur criticité (AMDEC) et son amélioration en utilisant un modèle AMDEC basée sur les FCM. Les contributions 3 et 4, proposent deux outils de modélisation dynamique des risques et d'évaluation à l'aide de la FCM pour faire face aux risques de l'externalisation de la maintenance et des réseaux de collaboration. Ensuite, on étend les outils développés et nous proposons un outil d'aide à la décision avancée pour prédire l'impact de chaque risque sur les autres risques ou sur la performance du système en utilisant la FCM (contribution 5).Dans la sixième contribution, on aborde les risques associés à la maintenance dans le cadre des ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP)) et on propose une autre approche intégrée basée sur la méthode AMDEC floue pour la priorisation des risques. Dans les contributions 7, 8, 9 et 10, on effectue une revue de la littérature concernant la maintenance basée sur les risques des dispositifs médicaux, puisque ces appareils sont devenus très complexes et sophistiqués et l'application de modèles de maintenance et d'optimisation pour eux est assez nouvelle. Ensuite, on développe trois cadres intégrés pour la planification de la maintenance et le remplacement de dispositifs médicaux axée sur les risques. Outre les contributions ci-dessus, et comme étude de cas, nous avons réalisé un projet intitulé “Mise à jour de guide de pratique clinique (GPC) qui est un cadre axé sur les priorités pour la mise à jour des guides de pratique cliniques existantes” au centre interdisciplinaire de recherche en réadaptation et intégration sociale du Québec (CIRRIS). Nos travaux au sein du CIRRIS ont amené à deux importantes contributions. Dans ces deux contributions (11e et 12e) nous avons effectué un examen systématique de la littérature pour identifier les critères potentiels de mise à jour des GPCs. Nous avons validé et pondéré les critères identifiés par un sondage international. Puis, sur la base des résultats de la onzième contribution, nous avons développé un cadre global axé sur les priorités pour les GPCs. Ceci est la première fois qu'une telle méthode quantitative a été proposée dans la littérature des guides de pratiques cliniques. L'évaluation et la priorisation des GPCs existants sur la base des critères validés peuvent favoriser l'acheminement des ressources limitées dans la mise à jour de GPCs qui sont les plus sensibles au changement, améliorant ainsi la qualité et la fiabilité des décisions de santé.Today, most systems in various critical sectors such as aviation, oil and health care have become very complex and dynamic, and consequently can at any time stop working. To prevent this from reoccurring and getting out of control which incur huge losses in terms of costs and downtime; the adoption of control and maintenance strategies are more than necessary and even vital. In process engineering, optimal maintenance strategies for these systems could have a significant impact on reducing costs and downtime, maximizing reliability and productivity, improving the quality and finally achieving the desired objectives of the companies. In addition, the risks and uncertainties associated with these systems are often composed of several extremely complex cause and effect relationships. This could lead to an increase in the number of failures of such systems. Therefore, an advanced failure analysis tool is needed to consider the complex interactions of components’ failures in the different phases of the product life cycle to ensure high levels of safety and reliability. In this thesis, we address the shortcomings of current failure/risk analysis and maintenance policy selection methods in the literature. Then, we develop comprehensive approaches to maintenance and failure analysis process based on the risks of complex systems and equipment which are applicable in all industries. The research conducted for the realization of this thesis has resulted in twelve important contributions, as follows: In the first contribution, we address the shortcomings of the current methods in selecting the optimum maintenance strategy and develop an integrated risk-based framework using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM), and fuzzy Soft set (FSS) tools to select the best maintenance policy by considering the uncertainties.The second contribution aims to address the shortcomings of traditional failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) method and enhance it using a FCM-based FMEA model. Contributions 3 and 4, present two dynamic risk modeling and assessment tools using FCM for dealing with risks of outsourcing maintenance and collaborative networks. Then, we extend the developed tools and propose an advanced decision support tool for predicting the impact of each risk on the other risks or on the performance of system using FCM (contribution 5). In the sixth contribution, we address the associated risks in Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) maintenance and we propose another integrated approach using fuzzy FMEA method for prioritizing the risks. In the contributions 7, 8, 9, and 10, we perform a literature review regarding the risk-based maintenance of medical devices, since these devices have become very complex and sophisticated and the application of maintenance and optimization models to them is fairly new. Then, we develop three integrated frameworks for risk-based maintenance and replacement planning of medical devices. In addition to above contributions, as a case study, we performed a project titled “Updating Clinical Practice Guidelines; a priority-based framework for updating existing guidelines” in CIRRIS which led to the two important contributions. In these two contributions (11th and 12th) we first performed a systematic literature review to identify potential criteria in updating CPGs. We validated and weighted the identified criteria through an international survey. Then, based on the results of the eleventh contribution, we developed a comprehensive priority-based framework for updating CPGs based on the approaches that we had already developed and applied success fully in other industries. This is the first time that such a quantitative method has been proposed in the literature of guidelines. Evaluation and prioritization of existing CPGs based on the validated criteria can promote channelling limited resources into updating CPGs that are most sensitive to change, thus improving the quality and reliability of healthcare decisions made based on current CPGs. Keywords: Risk-based maintenance, Maintenance strategy selection, FMEA, FCM, Medical devices, Clinical practice guidelines

Development of an advanced artificial intelligent reliability analysis tool to enhance ship operations and maintenance activities

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Innovation Issues in Water, Agriculture and Food

In a worldwide context of ever-growing competition for water and land, climate change, droughts and man-made water scarcity, and less-participatory water governance, agriculture faces the great challenge of producing enough food for a continually increasing population. In this line, this book provides a broad overview of innovation issues in the complex water–agriculture–food nexus, thus also relative to their interconnections and dependences. Issues refer to different spatial scales, from the field or the farm to the irrigation system or the river basin. Multidisciplinary approaches are used when analyzing the relationships between water, agriculture, and food security. The covered issues are quite diverse and include: innovation in crop evapotranspiration, crop coefficients and modeling; updates in research relative to crop water use and saving; irrigation scheduling and systems design; simulation models to support water and agricultural decisions; issues to cope with water scarcity and climate change; advances in water resource quality and sustainable uses; new tools for mapping and use of remote sensing information; and fostering a participative and inclusive governance of water for food security and population welfare. This book brings together a variety of contributions by leading international experts, professionals, and scholars in those diverse fields. It represents a major synthesis and state-of-the-art on various subjects, thus providing a valuable and updated resource for all researchers, professionals, policymakers, and post-graduate students interested in the complex world of the water–agriculture–food nexus

Deciding a multicriteria decision-making (Mcdm) method to prioritize maintenance work orders of hydroelectric power plants

The current global competitive scenario and the increase in complexity and automation of equipment and systems demand better results from maintenance management in organizations. As maintenance resources are limited, prioritizing maintenance activities is essential to allocate them properly and to meet maintenance management objectives. In the face of these challenges, multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) methods are commonly used in organizations to support decision-making. Nevertheless, selecting a suitable MCDM method for maintenance planning can be complicated given the diversity of methods and their strengths and weaknesses. In this context, this paper proposes a novel knowledge-based method for deciding a multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) method to prioritize maintenance work orders of hydroelectric plants. As the main novel contribution, it translates the intrinsic characteristics of the main MCDM methods into questions related to maintenance planning to guide the recommendation of a suitable MCDM method for organizations through a decision tree diagram. This approach was applied to a maintenance case study of a hydroelectric power plant in order to demonstrate its use and contribute to its understanding. These findings contribute to maintenance management in selecting an MCDM method aligned with the context of its maintenance planning for the prioritization of maintenance work orders

From DPSIR the DAPSI(W)R(M) Emerges… a Butterfly – ‘protecting the natural stuff and delivering the human stuff’

The complexity of interactions and feedbacks between human activities and ecosystems can make the analysis of such social-ecological systems intractable. In order to provide a common means to understand and analyse the links between social and ecological process within these systems, a range of analytical frameworks have been developed and adopted. Following decades of practical experience in implementation, the Driver Pressure State Impact Response (DPSIR) conceptual framework has been adapted and re-developed to become the D(A)PSI(W)R(M). This paper describes in detail the D(A)PSI(W)R(M) and its development from the original DPSIR conceptual frame. Despite its diverse application and demonstrated utility, a number of inherent shortcomings are identified. In particular the DPSIR model family tend to be best suited to individual environmental pressures and human activities and their resulting environmental problems, having a limited focus on the supply and demand of benefits from nature. We present a derived framework, the “Butterfly”, a more holistic approach designed to expand the concept. The “Butterfly” model, moves away from the centralised accounting framework approach while more-fully incorporating the complexity of social and ecological systems, and the supply and demand of ecosystem services, which are central to human-environment interactions

Ecosystem-Based Management, Ecosystem Services and Aquatic Biodiversity: Theory, Tools and Applications

The complexity of interactions and feedbacks between human activities and ecosystems can make the analysis of such social-ecological systems intractable. In order to provide a common means to understand and analyse the links between social and ecological process within these systems, a range of analytical frameworks have been developed and adopted. Following decades of practical experience in implementation, the Driver Pressure State Impact Response (DPSIR) conceptual framework has been adapted and re-developed to become the D(A)PSI(W)R(M). This paper describes in detail the D(A)PSI(W)R(M) and its development from the original DPSIR conceptual frame. Despite its diverse application and demonstrated utility, a number of inherent shortcomings are identified. In particular the DPSIR model family tend to be best suited to individual environmental pressures and human activities and their resulting environmental problems, having a limited focus on the supply and demand of benefits from nature. We present a derived framework, the “Butterfly”, a more holistic approach designed to expand the concept. The “Butterfly” model, moves away from the centralised accounting framework approach while more-fully incorporating the complexity of social and ecological systems, and the supply and demand of ecosystem services, which are central to human-environment interactions

Ecosystem-Based Management, Ecosystem Services and Aquatic Biodiversity

Aquatic ecosystems are rich in biodiversity and home to a diverse array of species and habitats, providing a wide variety of benefits to human beings. Many of these valuable ecosystems are at risk of being irreversibly damaged by human activities and pressures, including pollution, contamination, invasive species, overfishing and climate change. Such pressures threaten the sustainability of these ecosystems, their provision of ecosystem services and ultimately human well-being. Ecosystem-based management (EBM) is now widely considered the most promising paradigm for balancing sustainable development and biodiversity protection, and various international strategies and conventions have championed the EBM cause and the inclusion of ecosystem services in decision-making. This open access book introduces the essential concepts and principles required to implement ecosystem-based management, detailing tools and techniques, and describing the application of these concepts and tools to a broad range of aquatic ecosystems, from the shores of Lough Erne in Northern Ireland to the estuaries of the US Pacific Northwest and the tropical Mekong Delta

Ecosystem-Based Management, Ecosystem Services and Aquatic Biodiversity: Theory, Tools and Applications

The complexity of interactions and feedbacks between human activities and ecosystems can make the analysis of such social-ecological systems intractable. In order to provide a common means to understand and analyse the links between social and ecological process within these systems, a range of analytical frameworks have been developed and adopted. Following decades of practical experience in implementation, the Driver Pressure State Impact Response (DPSIR) conceptual framework has been adapted and re-developed to become the D(A)PSI(W)R(M). This paper describes in detail the D(A)PSI(W)R(M) and its development from the original DPSIR conceptual frame. Despite its diverse application and demonstrated utility, a number of inherent shortcomings are identified. In particular the DPSIR model family tend to be best suited to individual environmental pressures and human activities and their resulting environmental problems, having a limited focus on the supply and demand of benefits from nature. We present a derived framework, the “Butterfly”, a more holistic approach designed to expand the concept. The “Butterfly” model, moves away from the centralised accounting framework approach while more-fully incorporating the complexity of social and ecological systems, and the supply and demand of ecosystem services, which are central to human-environment interactions