A synthesis of logic and bio-inspired techniques in the design of dependable systems

Much of the development of model-based design and dependability analysis in the design of dependable systems, including software intensive systems, can be attributed to the application of advances in formal logic and its application to fault forecasting and verification of systems. In parallel, work on bio-inspired technologies has shown potential for the evolutionary design of engineering systems via automated exploration of potentially large design spaces. We have not yet seen the emergence of a design paradigm that effectively combines these two techniques, schematically founded on the two pillars of formal logic and biology, from the early stages of, and throughout, the design lifecycle. Such a design paradigm would apply these techniques synergistically and systematically to enable optimal refinement of new designs which can be driven effectively by dependability requirements. The paper sketches such a model-centric paradigm for the design of dependable systems, presented in the scope of the HiP-HOPS tool and technique, that brings these technologies together to realise their combined potential benefits. The paper begins by identifying current challenges in model-based safety assessment and then overviews the use of meta-heuristics at various stages of the design lifecycle covering topics that span from allocation of dependability requirements, through dependability analysis, to multi-objective optimisation of system architectures and maintenance schedules

Estimating ToE Risk Level using CVSS

Security management is about calculated risk and requires continuous evaluation to ensure cost, time and resource effectiveness. Parts of which is to make future-oriented, cost-benefit investments in security. Security investments must adhere to healthy business principles where both security and financial aspects play an important role. Information on the current and potential risk level is essential to successfully trade-off security and financial aspects. Risk level is the combination of the frequency and impact of a potential unwanted event, often referred to as a security threat or misuse. The paper presents a risk level estimation model that derives risk level as a conditional probability over frequency and impact estimates. The frequency and impact estimates are derived from a set of attributes specified in the Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS). The model works on the level of vulnerabilities (just as the CVSS) and is able to compose vulnerabilities into service levels. The service levels define the potential risk levels and are modelled as a Markov process, which are then used to predict the risk level at a particular time

A review of applications of fuzzy sets to safety and reliability engineering

Safety and reliability are rigorously assessed during the design of dependable systems. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) processes are comprehensive, structured and logical methods widely used for this purpose. PRA approaches include, but not limited to Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), and Event Tree Analysis (ETA). In conventional PRA, failure data about components is required for the purposes of quantitative analysis. In practice, it is not always possible to fully obtain this data due to unavailability of primary observations and consequent scarcity of statistical data about the failure of components. To handle such situations, fuzzy set theory has been successfully used in novel PRA approaches for safety and reliability evaluation under conditions of uncertainty. This paper presents a review of fuzzy set theory based methodologies applied to safety and reliability engineering, which include fuzzy FTA, fuzzy FMEA, fuzzy ETA, fuzzy Bayesian networks, fuzzy Markov chains, and fuzzy Petri nets. Firstly, we describe relevant fundamentals of fuzzy set theory and then we review applications of fuzzy set theory to system safety and reliability analysis. The review shows the context in which each technique may be more appropriate and highlights the overall potential usefulness of fuzzy set theory in addressing uncertainty in safety and reliability engineering

Security Analysis and Improvement Model for Web-based Applications

Today the web has become a major conduit for information. As the World Wide Web?s popularity continues to increase, information security on the web has become an increasing concern. Web information security is related to availability, confidentiality, and data integrity. According to the reports from http://www.securityfocus.com in May 2006, operating systems account for 9% vulnerability, web-based software systems account for 61% vulnerability, and other applications account for 30% vulnerability. In this dissertation, I present a security analysis model using the Markov Process Model. Risk analysis is conducted using fuzzy logic method and information entropy theory. In a web-based application system, security risk is most related to the current states in software systems and hardware systems, and independent of web application system states in the past. Therefore, the web-based applications can be approximately modeled by the Markov Process Model. The web-based applications can be conceptually expressed in the discrete states of (web_client_good; web_server_good, web_server_vulnerable, web_server_attacked, web_server_security_failed; database_server_good, database_server_vulnerable, database_server_attacked, database_server_security_failed) as state space in the Markov Chain. The vulnerable behavior and system response in the web-based applications are analyzed in this dissertation. The analyses focus on functional availability-related aspects: the probability of reaching a particular security failed state and the mean time to the security failure of a system. Vulnerability risk index is classified in three levels as an indicator of the level of security (low level, high level, and failed level). An illustrative application example is provided. As the second objective of this dissertation, I propose a security improvement model for the web-based applications using the GeoIP services in the formal methods. In the security improvement model, web access is authenticated in role-based access control using user logins, remote IP addresses, and physical locations as subject credentials to combine with the requested objects and privilege modes. Access control algorithms are developed for subjects, objects, and access privileges. A secure implementation architecture is presented. In summary, the dissertation has developed security analysis and improvement model for the web-based application. Future work will address Markov Process Model validation when security data collection becomes easy. Security improvement model will be evaluated in performance aspect

Fault Tree Analysis: a survey of the state-of-the-art in modeling, analysis and tools

Fault tree analysis (FTA) is a very prominent method to analyze the risks related to safety and economically critical assets, like power plants, airplanes, data centers and web shops. FTA methods comprise of a wide variety of modelling and analysis techniques, supported by a wide range of software tools. This paper surveys over 150 papers on fault tree analysis, providing an in-depth overview of the state-of-the-art in FTA. Concretely, we review standard fault trees, as well as extensions such as dynamic FT, repairable FT, and extended FT. For these models, we review both qualitative analysis methods, like cut sets and common cause failures, and quantitative techniques, including a wide variety of stochastic methods to compute failure probabilities. Numerous examples illustrate the various approaches, and tables present a quick overview of results

Addressing Complexity and Intelligence in Systems Dependability Evaluation

Engineering and computing systems are increasingly complex, intelligent, and open adaptive. When it comes to the dependability evaluation of such systems, there are certain challenges posed by the characteristics of “complexity” and “intelligence”. The first aspect of complexity is the dependability modelling of large systems with many interconnected components and dynamic behaviours such as Priority, Sequencing and Repairs. To address this, the thesis proposes a novel hierarchical solution to dynamic fault tree analysis using Semi-Markov Processes. A second aspect of complexity is the environmental conditions that may impact dependability and their modelling. For instance, weather and logistics can influence maintenance actions and hence dependability of an offshore wind farm. The thesis proposes a semi-Markov-based maintenance model called “Butterfly Maintenance Model (BMM)” to model this complexity and accommodate it in dependability evaluation. A third aspect of complexity is the open nature of system of systems like swarms of drones which makes complete design-time dependability analysis infeasible. To address this aspect, the thesis proposes a dynamic dependability evaluation method using Fault Trees and Markov-Models at runtime.The challenge of “intelligence” arises because Machine Learning (ML) components do not exhibit programmed behaviour; their behaviour is learned from data. However, in traditional dependability analysis, systems are assumed to be programmed or designed. When a system has learned from data, then a distributional shift of operational data from training data may cause ML to behave incorrectly, e.g., misclassify objects. To address this, a new approach called SafeML is developed that uses statistical distance measures for monitoring the performance of ML against such distributional shifts. The thesis develops the proposed models, and evaluates them on case studies, highlighting improvements to the state-of-the-art, limitations and future work

Designing and Valuating System on Dependability Analysis of Cluster-Based Multiprocessor System

Analysis of dependability is a significant stage in structuring and examining the safety of protection systems and computer systems. The introduction of virtual machines and multiprocessors leads to increasing the faults of the system, particularly for the failures that are software- induced, affecting the overall dependability. Also, it is different for the successful operation of the safety system at any dynamic stage, since there is a tremendous distinction in the rate of failure among the failures that are induced by the software and the hardware. Thus this paper presents a review or different dependability analysis techniques employed in multiprocessor system

A Hierarchical Approach for Dynamic Fault Trees Solution Through Semi-Markov Process

Dynamic fault tree (DFT) is a top-down deductive technique extended to model systems with complex failure behaviors and interactions. In two last decades, different methods have been applied to improve its capabilities, such as computational complexity reduction, modularization, intricate failure distribution, and reconfiguration. This paper uses semi-Markov process (SMP) theorem for DFT solution with the motivation of obviating the model state-explosion, considering nonexponential failure distribution through a hierarchical solution. In addition, in the proposed method, a universal SMP for static and dynamic gates is introduced, which can generalize dynamic behaviors like functional dependencies, sequences, priorities, and spares in a single model. The efficiency of the method regarding precision and competitiveness with commercial tools, repeated events consideration, computational complexity reduction, nonexponential failure distribution consideration, and repairable events in DFT is studied by a number of examples, and the results are then compared to those of the selected existing methods

BPRS: Belief Propagation Based Iterative Recommender System

In this paper we introduce the first application of the Belief Propagation (BP) algorithm in the design of recommender systems. We formulate the recommendation problem as an inference problem and aim to compute the marginal probability distributions of the variables which represent the ratings to be predicted. However, computing these marginal probability functions is computationally prohibitive for large-scale systems. Therefore, we utilize the BP algorithm to efficiently compute these functions. Recommendations for each active user are then iteratively computed by probabilistic message passing. As opposed to the previous recommender algorithms, BPRS does not require solving the recommendation problem for all the users if it wishes to update the recommendations for only a single active. Further, BPRS computes the recommendations for each user with linear complexity and without requiring a training period. Via computer simulations (using the 100K MovieLens dataset), we verify that BPRS iteratively reduces the error in the predicted ratings of the users until it converges. Finally, we confirm that BPRS is comparable to the state of art methods such as Correlation-based neighborhood model (CorNgbr) and Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) in terms of rating and precision accuracy. Therefore, we believe that the BP-based recommendation algorithm is a new promising approach which offers a significant advantage on scalability while providing competitive accuracy for the recommender systems