A Decision Calculus for Belief Functions in Valuation-Based Systems

Valuation-based system (VBS) provides a general framework for representing knowledge and drawing inferences under uncertainty. Recent studies have shown that the semantics of VBS can represent and solve Bayesian decision problems (Shenoy, 1991a). The purpose of this paper is to propose a decision calculus for Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory in the framework of VBS. The proposed calculus uses a weighting factor whose role is similar to the probabilistic interpretation of an assumption that disambiguates decision problems represented with belief functions (Strat 1990). It will be shown that with the presented calculus, if the decision problems are represented in the valuation network properly, we can solve the problems by using fusion algorithm (Shenoy 1991a). It will also be shown the presented decision calculus can be reduced to the calculus for Bayesian probability theory when probabilities, instead of belief functions, are given.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Eighth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1992

Lazy Evaluation of Symmetric Bayesian Decision Problems

Solving symmetric Bayesian decision problems is a computationally intensive task to perform regardless of the algorithm used. In this paper we propose a method for improving the efficiency of algorithms for solving Bayesian decision problems. The method is based on the principle of lazy evaluation - a principle recently shown to improve the efficiency of inference in Bayesian networks. The basic idea is to maintain decompositions of potentials and to postpone computations for as long as possible. The efficiency improvements obtained with the lazy evaluation based method is emphasized through examples. Finally, the lazy evaluation based method is compared with the hugin and valuation-based systems architectures for solving symmetric Bayesian decision problems.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Fifteenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1999

Application of Compressive Sensing Techniques in Distributed Sensor Networks: A Survey

In this survey paper, our goal is to discuss recent advances of compressive sensing (CS) based solutions in wireless sensor networks (WSNs) including the main ongoing/recent research efforts, challenges and research trends in this area. In WSNs, CS based techniques are well motivated by not only the sparsity prior observed in different forms but also by the requirement of efficient in-network processing in terms of transmit power and communication bandwidth even with nonsparse signals. In order to apply CS in a variety of WSN applications efficiently, there are several factors to be considered beyond the standard CS framework. We start the discussion with a brief introduction to the theory of CS and then describe the motivational factors behind the potential use of CS in WSN applications. Then, we identify three main areas along which the standard CS framework is extended so that CS can be efficiently applied to solve a variety of problems specific to WSNs. In particular, we emphasize on the significance of extending the CS framework to (i). take communication constraints into account while designing projection matrices and reconstruction algorithms for signal reconstruction in centralized as well in decentralized settings, (ii) solve a variety of inference problems such as detection, classification and parameter estimation, with compressed data without signal reconstruction and (iii) take practical communication aspects such as measurement quantization, physical layer secrecy constraints, and imperfect channel conditions into account. Finally, open research issues and challenges are discussed in order to provide perspectives for future research directions

Distributed Bayesian Detection Under Unknown Observation Statistics

In this paper, distributed Bayesian detection problems with unknown prior probabilities of hypotheses are considered. The sensors obtain observations which are conditionally dependent across sensors and their probability density functions (pdf) are not exactly known. The observations are quantized and are sent to the fusion center. The fusion center fuses the current quantized observations and makes a final decision. It also designs (updated) quantizers to be used at the sensors and the fusion rule based on all previous quantized observations. Information regarding updated quantizers is sent back to the sensors for use at the next time. In this paper, the conditional joint pdf is represented in a parametric form by using the copula framework. The unknown parameters include dependence parameters and marginal parameters. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) with feedback based on quantized data is proposed to estimate the unknown parameters. These estimates are iteratively used to refine the quantizers and the fusion rule to improve distributed detection performance by using feedback. Numerical examples show that the new detection method based on MLE with feedback is much better than the usual detection method based on the assumption of conditionally independent observations.Comment: 17 pages, 6 figures, submitted to journa

A Belief-Function Based Decision Support System

In this paper, we present a decision support system based on belief functions and the pignistic transformation. The system is an integration of an evidential system for belief function propagation and a valuation-based system for Bayesian decision analysis. The two subsystems are connected through the pignistic transformation. The system takes as inputs the user's "gut feelings" about a situation and suggests what, if any, are to be tested and in what order, and it does so with a user friendly interface.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Ninth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1993

Closed-loop Bayesian Semantic Data Fusion for Collaborative Human-Autonomy Target Search

In search applications, autonomous unmanned vehicles must be able to efficiently reacquire and localize mobile targets that can remain out of view for long periods of time in large spaces. As such, all available information sources must be actively leveraged -- including imprecise but readily available semantic observations provided by humans. To achieve this, this work develops and validates a novel collaborative human-machine sensing solution for dynamic target search. Our approach uses continuous partially observable Markov decision process (CPOMDP) planning to generate vehicle trajectories that optimally exploit imperfect detection data from onboard sensors, as well as semantic natural language observations that can be specifically requested from human sensors. The key innovation is a scalable hierarchical Gaussian mixture model formulation for efficiently solving CPOMDPs with semantic observations in continuous dynamic state spaces. The approach is demonstrated and validated with a real human-robot team engaged in dynamic indoor target search and capture scenarios on a custom testbed.Comment: Final version accepted and submitted to 2018 FUSION Conference (Cambridge, UK, July 2018

Sequential Hypothesis Test with Online Usage-Constrained Sensor Selection

This work investigates the sequential hypothesis testing problem with online sensor selection and sensor usage constraints. That is, in a sensor network, the fusion center sequentially acquires samples by selecting one "most informative" sensor at each time until a reliable decision can be made. In particular, the sensor selection is carried out in the online fashion since it depends on all the previous samples at each time. Our goal is to develop the sequential test (i.e., stopping rule and decision function) and sensor selection strategy that minimize the expected sample size subject to the constraints on the error probabilities and sensor usages. To this end, we first recast the usage-constrained formulation into a Bayesian optimal stopping problem with different sampling costs for the usage-contrained sensors. The Bayesian problem is then studied under both finite- and infinite-horizon setups, based on which, the optimal solution to the original usage-constrained problem can be readily established. Moreover, by capitalizing on the structures of the optimal solution, a lower bound is obtained for the optimal expected sample size. In addition, we also propose algorithms to approximately evaluate the parameters in the optimal sequential test so that the sensor usage and error probability constraints are satisfied. Finally, numerical experiments are provided to illustrate the theoretical findings, and compare with the existing methods.Comment: 33 page

Probabilistic Inference in Influence Diagrams

This paper is about reducing influence diagram (ID) evaluation into Bayesian network (BN) inference problems. Such reduction is interesting because it enables one to readily use one's favorite BN inference algorithm to efficiently evaluate IDs. Two such reduction methods have been proposed previously (Cooper 1988, Shachter and Peot 1992). This paper proposes a new method. The BN inference problems induced by the mew method are much easier to solve than those induced by the two previous methods.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Fourteenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1998

Reasoning and Facts Explanation in Valuation Based Systems

In the literature, the optimization problem to identify a set of composite hypotheses H, which will yield the $k$ largest $P(H|S_e)$ where a composite hypothesis is an instantiation of all the nodes in the network except the evidence nodes \cite{KSy:93} is of significant interest. This problem is called "finding the $k$ Most Plausible Explanation (MPE) of a given evidence $S_e$ in a Bayesian belief network". The problem of finding $k$ most probable hypotheses is generally NP-hard \cite{Cooper:90}. Therefore in the past various simplifications of the task by restricting $k$ (to 1 or 2), restricting the structure (e.g. to singly connected networks), or shifting the complexity to spatial domain have been investigated. A genetic algorithm is proposed in this paper to overcome some of these restrictions while stepping out from probabilistic domain onto the general Valuation based System (VBS) framework is also proposed by generalizing the genetic algorithm approach to the realm of Dempster-Shafer belief calculus.Comment: 12 pasge

Design of a Framework to Facilitate Decisions Using Information Fusion

Information fusion is an advanced research area which can assist decision makers in enhancing their decisions. This paper aims at designing a new multi-layer framework that can support the process of performing decisions from the obtained beliefs using information fusion. Since it is not an easy task to cross the gap between computed beliefs of certain hypothesis and decisions, the proposed framework consists of the following layers in order to provide a suitable architecture (ordered bottom up): 1. A layer for combination of basic belief assignments using an information fusion approach. Such approach exploits Dezert-Smarandache Theory, DSmT, and proportional conflict redistribution to provide more realistic final beliefs. 2. A layer for computation of pignistic probability of the underlying propositions from the corresponding final beliefs. 3. A layer for performing probabilistic reasoning using a Bayesian network that can obtain the probable reason of a proposition from its pignistic probability. 4. Ranking the system decisions is ultimately used to support decision making. A case study has been accomplished at various operational conditions in order to prove the concept, in addition it pointed out that: 1. The use of DSmT for information fusion yields not only more realistic beliefs but also reliable pignistic probabilities for the underlying propositions. 2. Exploiting the pignistic probability for the integration of the information fusion with the Bayesian network provides probabilistic inference and enable decision making on the basis of both belief based probabilities for the underlying propositions and Bayesian based probabilities for the corresponding reasons. A comparative study of the proposed framework with respect to other information fusion systems confirms its superiority to support decision making.Comment: 17 pages, 5 figures, Journal of Al Azhar University Engineering Sector, Vol. 8, No. 28, July 2013, 1237-1250. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:cs/0409007 by other author