2,545 research outputs found
Stochastic Spin-Orbit Torque Devices as Elements for Bayesian Inference
Probabilistic inference from real-time input data is becoming increasingly
popular and may be one of the potential pathways at enabling cognitive
intelligence. As a matter of fact, preliminary research has revealed that
stochastic functionalities also underlie the spiking behavior of neurons in
cortical microcircuits of the human brain. In tune with such observations,
neuromorphic and other unconventional computing platforms have recently started
adopting the usage of computational units that generate outputs
probabilistically, depending on the magnitude of the input stimulus. In this
work, we experimentally demonstrate a spintronic device that offers a direct
mapping to the functionality of such a controllable stochastic switching
element. We show that the probabilistic switching of Ta/CoFeB/MgO
heterostructures in presence of spin-orbit torque and thermal noise can be
harnessed to enable probabilistic inference in a plethora of unconventional
computing scenarios. This work can potentially pave the way for hardware that
directly mimics the computational units of Bayesian inference
Generalized Probabilistic Reasoning and Empirical Studies on Computational Efficiency and Scalability
Expert Systems are tools that can be very useful for diagnostic purposes, however current methods of storing and reasoning with knowledge have significant limitations. One set of limitations involves how to store and manipulate uncertain knowledge: much of the knowledge we are dealing with has some degree of uncertainty. These limitations include lack of complete information, not being able to model cyclic information and limitations on the size and complexity of the problems to be solved. If expert systems are ever going to be able to tackle significant real world problems then these deficiencies must be corrected. This paper describes a new method of reasoning with uncertain knowledge which improves the computational efficiency as well as scalability over current methods. The cornerstone of this method involves incorporating and exploiting information about the structure of the knowledge representation to reduce the problem size and complexity. Additionally, a new knowledge representation is discussed that will further increase the capability of expert systems to model a wider variety of real world problems. Finally, benchmarking studies of the new algorithm against the old have led to insights into the graph structure of very large knowledge bases
BAYESIAN-INTEGRATED SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING FOR PRODUCTION LINE RISK ASSESSMENT
Companies, across the globe are concerned with risks that impair their ability to produce quality products at a low cost and deliver them to customers on time. Risk assessment, comprising of both external and internal elements, prepares companies to identify and manage the risks affecting them. Although both external/supply chain and internal/production line risk assessments are necessary, internal risk assessment is often ignored. Internal risk assessment helps companies recognize vulnerable sections of production operations and provide opportunities for risk mitigation.
In this research, a novel production line risk assessment methodology is proposed. Traditional simulation techniques fail to capture the complex relationship amongst risk events and the dynamic interaction between risks affecting a production line. Bayesian- integrated System Dynamics modelling can help resolve this limitation. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) effectively capture risk relationships and their likelihoods. Integrating BBN with System Dynamics (SD) for modelling production lines help capture the impact of risk events on a production line as well as the dynamic interaction between those risks and production line variables. The proposed methodology is applied to an industrial case study for validation and to discern research and practical implications
Applications of Belief Functions in Business Decisions: A Review
This is the author's final draft. The publisher's official version is available from: .In this paper, we review recent applications of Dempster-Shafer theory (DST) of belief functions
to auditing and business decision-making. We show how DST can better map uncertainties in
the application domains than Bayesian theory of probabilities. We review the applications in
auditing around three practical problems that challenge the effective application of DST,
namely, hierarchical evidence, versatile evidence, and statistical evidence. We review the
applications in other business decisions in two loose categories: judgment under ambiguity and
business model combination. Finally, we show how the theory of linear belief functions, a new
extension of DST, can provide an alternative solution to a wide range of business problems
Uncertainty Assessment in High-Risk Environments Using Probability, Evidence Theory and Expert Judgment Elicitation
The level of uncertainty in advanced system design is assessed by comparing the results of expert judgment elicitation to probability and evidence theory. This research shows how one type of monotone measure, namely Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence can expand the framework of uncertainty to provide decision makers a more robust solution space. The issues imbedded in this research are focused on how the relevant predictive uncertainty produced by similar action is measured.
This methodology uses the established approach from traditional probability theory and Dempster-Shafer evidence theory to combine two classes of uncertainty, aleatory and epistemic. Probability theory provides the mathematical structure traditionally used in the representation of aleatory uncertainty. The uncertainty in analysis outcomes is represented by probability distributions and typically summarized as Complimentary Cumulative Distribution Functions (CCDFs). The main components of this research are probability of X in the probability theory compared to mx in evidence theory. Using this comparison, an epistemic model is developed to obtain the upper “CCPF - Complimentary Cumulative Plausibility Function” limits and the lower “CCBF - Complimentary Cumulative Belief Function” limits compared to the traditional probability function.
A conceptual design for the Thermal Protection System (TPS) of future Crew Exploration Vehicles (CEV) is used as an initial test case. A questionnaire is tailored to elicit judgment from experts in high-risk environments. Based on description and characteristics, the answers of the questionnaire produces information, that serves as qualitative semantics used for the evidence theory functions. The computational mechanism provides a heuristic approach for the compilation and presentation of the results. A follow-up evaluation serves as validation of the findings and provides useful information in terms of consistency and adoptability to other domains.
The results of this methodology provide a useful and practical approach in conceptual design to aid the decision maker in assessing the level of uncertainty of the experts. The methodology presented is well-suited for decision makers that encompass similar conceptual design instruments
Data Obsolescence Detection in the Light of Newly Acquired Valid Observations
The information describing the conditions of a system or a person is
constantly evolving and may become obsolete and contradict other information. A
database, therefore, must be consistently updated upon the acquisition of new
valid observations that contradict obsolete ones contained in the database. In
this paper, we propose a novel approach for dealing with the information
obsolescence problem. Our approach aims to detect, in real-time, contradictions
between observations and then identify the obsolete ones, given a
representation model. Since we work within an uncertain environment
characterized by the lack of information, we choose to use a Bayesian network
as our representation model and propose a new approximate concept,
-Contradiction. The new concept is parameterised by a confidence
level of having a contradiction in a set of observations. We propose a
polynomial-time algorithm for detecting obsolete information. We show that the
resulting obsolete information is better represented by an AND-OR tree than a
simple set of observations. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our
approach on a real elderly fall-prevention database and showcase how this tree
can be used to give reliable recommendations to doctors. Our experiments give
systematically and substantially very good results
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