Structural changes, international trade and multisectoral modelling

In September 2007 the national team members of the International Inforum (Interindustry Forecasting Project at the University of Maryland) group held the XV annual World Conference in Truijllo, Spain. Such Conferences offer the participants to report their achievements in the different fields concerning the macroeconomic multisectoral modeling approach and data development. The national partners build their country model based on a common input-output accounting structure and a similar econometric modeling approach for sectoral and macroeconomic variables. In each Conference, the contributions refer to the wide spectrum of research activities carried on within the Inforum system of models

Macroeconomic modelling for policy analysis

Over the last 30 years, the Inforum approach to macro modelling has been shared by economists worldwide. Researchers have focussed much of their efforts to developing a linked system of international interindustry models with a consistent methodology. A world-wide network of research associates use the same methods and software obtaining comparable results. The XXth Inforum World Conference was held in Florence in September 2012 and this book contains a selection of papers presented during that Conference. All these contributions are aimed at policymakers, stakeholders, and applied economists. Some papers are devoted to specific topics (total factor productivity, energy issues, external linkages, demographic changes) and some others are oriented to macro model building and simulations

Three essays on modeling economic and fiscal change for communities under disequilibrium following natural disasters

Regional economists and policy makers are interested in forecasting economic changes that are likely to take place at local and state levels after exogenous shocks to an economy; that is, create disequilibrium conditions in terms of supply and demand. Impacts of such shocks could be observed at the level of employment, unemployment, commuting patterns, assessed property values, property and sales taxes and local level of expenditures in several categories. The objective of the first essay was to model the employment change decompositions of different effects in two major industries using a shift share analysis technique in context of Louisiana parishes before and after hurricanes Katrina and Rita. A correlation analysis test was performed to identify whether a distinct regional industry effect can be identified separately from a sub-region local effect in shift-share analysis. Results from the test indicated that the distinctiveness of spatial neighboring region effect and the localized effect was evaluated and they were two separate effects. The objective of my second essay was to model the Louisiana labor market for purposes of improving forecasting accuracy in regional economic modeling. Specifically, this was performed through the use of alternative regional econometric estimators in Community Policy Analysis System (COMPAS) models for Louisiana. Results suggested that panel data models increased forecasting performance compared to other models in the study, if measured in terms of traditional error measures. However, the mean comparison test suggested that panel models do not always display statistical improvement in forecasting. The third and final objective of my dissertation was to evaluate if a fiscal module under the COMPAS framework (an equilibrium model) fits better under a disequilibrium economic environment. I found that both a simple naïve model with one year lagged expenditure as well as a lagged expenditure model with revenue capacity variables significantly increased forecasting performance relative to the traditional supply/demand equilibrium model of the public sector. I also found weak evidence suggesting that in cases where the equilibrium model is used in a cross-sectional setting, quantile regression may improve forecasting performance given the attribute of lumpy public goods

Selected Papers from the 8th Annual Conference of Energy Economics and Management

This collection represents successful invited submissions from the papers presented at the 8th Annual Conference of Energy Economics and Management held in Beijing, China, 22–24 September 2017. With over 500 participants, the conference was co-hosted by the Management Science Department of National Natural Science Foundation of China, the Chinese Society of Energy Economics and Management, and Renmin University of China on the subject area of “Energy Transition of China: Opportunities and Challenges”. The major strategies to transform the energy system of China to a sustainable model include energy/economic structure adjustment, resource conservation, and technology innovation. Accordingly, the conference and its associated publications encourage research to address the major issues faced in supporting the energy transition of China. Papers published in this collection cover the broad spectrum of energy economics issues, including building energy efficiency, industrial energy demand, public policies to promote new energy technologies, power system control technology, emission reduction policies in energy-intensive industries, emission measurements of cities, energy price movement, and the impact of new energy vehicle

In Quest of the Craft

INFORUM is a research project started more than forty five years ago by Clopper Almon. The focus is on the development of dynamic, interindustry, macroeconometric models to forecast the economy in the long run. Over the last 30 years, the Inforum approach to model building has been shared by economists in many different countries. Researchers have focused much of their efforts to developing a linked system of international interindustry models with a consistent methodology. A world-wide network of research associates use similar methods and a common software obtaining comparable results to produce studies of common interest to the group. Inforum partners have shared their research in an annual conference since 1993. The XXII Inforum World Conference was held in Alexandria, Virginia in September 2014 and this book contains a selection of papers presented during the sessions. All these contributions share an empirical and pragmatic orientation that is very useful for policymakers, business, and applied economists. Some papers are devoted to specific topics (productivity, energy, international trade, demographic changes) and some others are oriented to model building and simulations

ABSTRACTS OF SELECTED PAPERS

Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,

Biopsychosocial Assessment and Ergonomics Intervention for Sustainable Living: A Case Study on Flats

This study proposes an ergonomics-based approach for those who are living in small housings (known as flats) in Indonesia. With regard to human capability and limitation, this research shows how the basic needs of human beings are captured and analyzed, followed by proposed designs of facilities and standard living in small housings. Ninety samples were involved during the study through in- depth interview and face-to-face questionnaire. The results show that there were some proposed of modification of critical facilities (such as multifunction ironing work station, bed furniture, and clothesline) and validated through usability testing. Overall, it is hoped that the proposed designs will support biopsychosocial needs and sustainability