30 research outputs found

    Additive utility in prospect theory

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    Prospect theory is currently the main descriptive theory of decision under uncertainty. It generalizes expected utility by introducing nonlinear decision weighting and loss aversion. A difficulty in the study of multiattribute utility under prospect theory is to determine when an attribute yields a gain or a loss. One possibility, adopted in the theoretical literature on multiattribute utility under prospect theory, is to assume that a decision maker determines whether the complete outcome is a gain or a loss. In this holistic evaluation, decision weighting and loss aversion are general and attribute-independent. Another possibility, more common in the empirical literature, is to assume that a decision maker has a reference point for each attribute. We give preference foundations for this attribute-specific evaluation where decision weighting and loss aversion are depending on the attributes

    Using Multiattribute Utility Copulas in Support of UAV Search and Destroy Operations

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    The multiattribute utility copula is an emerging form of utility function used by decision analysts to study decisions with dependent attributes. Failure to properly address attribute dependence may cause errors in selecting the optimal policy. This research examines two scenarios of interest to the modern warfighter. The first scenario employs a utility copula to determine the type, quantity, and altitude of UAVs to be sent to strike a stationary target. The second scenario employs a utility copula to examine the impact of attribute dependence on the optimal routing of UAVs in a contested operational environment when performing a search and destroy mission against a Markovian target. Routing decisions involve a tradeoff between risk of UAV exposure to the enemy and the ability to strike the target. This research informs decision makers and analysts with respect to the tactics, techniques, and procedures employed in UAV search and destroy missions. An ever increasing UAV operations tempo suggests such research becoming increasingly relevant to the warfighter

    Conflicting Objectives in Decisions

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    This book deals with quantitative approaches in making decisions when conflicting objectives are present. This problem is central to many applications of decision analysis, policy analysis, operational research, etc. in a wide range of fields, for example, business, economics, engineering, psychology, and planning. The book surveys different approaches to the same problem area and each approach is discussed in considerable detail so that the coverage of the book is both broad and deep. The problem of conflicting objectives is of paramount importance, both in planned and market economies, and this book represents a cross-cultural mixture of approaches from many countries to the same class of problem

    The Target-Based Utility Model. The role of Copulas and of Non-Additive Measures

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    My studies and my Ph.D. thesis deal with topics that recently emerged in the field of decisions under risk and uncertainty. In particular, I deal with the "target-based approach" to utility theory. A rich literature has been devoted in the last decade to this approach to economic decisions: originally, interest had been focused on the "single-attribute" case and, more recently, extensions to "multi-attribute" case have been studied. This literature is still growing, with a main focus on applied aspects. I will, on the contrary, focus attention on some aspects of theoretical type, related with the multi-attribute case. Various mathematical concepts, such as non-additive measures, aggregation functions, multivariate probability distributions, and notions of stochastic dependence emerge in the formulation and the analysis of target-based models. Notions in the field of non-additive measures and aggregation functions are quite common in the modern economic literature. They have been used to go beyond the classical principle of maximization of expected utility in decision theory. These notions, furthermore, are used in game theory and multi-criteria decision aid. Along my work, on the contrary, I show how non-additive measures and aggregation functions emerge in a natural way in the frame of the target-based approach to classical utility theory, when considering the multi-attribute case. Furthermore they combine with the analysis of multivariate probability distributions and with concepts of stochastic dependence. The concept of copula also constitutes a very important tool for this work, mainly for two purposes. The first one is linked to the analysis of target-based utilities, the other one is in the comparison between classical stochastic order and the concept of "stochastic precedence". This topic finds its application in statistics as well as in the study of Markov Models linked to waiting times to occurrences of words in random sampling of letters from an alphabet. In this work I give a generalization of the concept of stochastic precedence and we discuss its properties on the basis of properties of the connecting copulas of the variables. Along this work I also trace connections to reliability theory, whose aim is studying the lifetime of a system through the analysis of the lifetime of its components. The target-based model finds an application in representing the behavior of the whole system by means of the interaction of its components

    A normative methodology for modeling consumer response to innovation

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    Bibliography: leaves [46-50].by John R. Hauser and Glen L. Urban

    Multiple Criteria Decision Support; Proceedings of an International Workshop, Helsinki, Finland, August 7-11, 1989

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    Multiple Criteria Decision Making has been an important and active research area for some 20 years. In the 1970's, research focused on the theory of multiple objective mathematical programming and on procedures for solving multiple objective mathematical programming problems. During the 1980's, a shift in emphasis towards multiple criteria decision support was observed. Accordingly, much research has focused on the user interface, the behavioral foundations of decision making, and on supporting the entire decision-making process from problem structuring to solution implementation. Because of the shift in research emphasis the authors decided to make "Multiple Criteria Decision Support" the theme for the International Workshop, which was held at Suomen Saeaestoepankkiopisto in Espoo, Finland. The Workshop was organized by the Helsinki School of Economics, and sponsored by the Helsinki School of Economics and IIASA, Austria. This volume provides an up-to-date coverage of the theory and practice of multiple criteria decision support. The authors trust that it will serve the research community as well as the previously published Conference Proceedings based on IIASA Workshops

    A robust multi-objective statistical improvement approach to electric power portfolio selection

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    Motivated by an electric power portfolio selection problem, a sampling method is developed for simulation-based robust design that builds on existing multi-objective statistical improvement methods. It uses a Bayesian surrogate model regressed on both design and noise variables, and makes use of methods for estimating epistemic model uncertainty in environmental uncertainty metrics. Regions of the design space are sequentially sampled in a manner that balances exploration of unknown designs and exploitation of designs thought to be Pareto optimal, while regions of the noise space are sampled to improve knowledge of the environmental uncertainty. A scalable test problem is used to compare the method with design of experiments (DoE) and crossed array methods, and the method is found to be more efficient for restrictive sample budgets. Experiments with the same test problem are used to study the sensitivity of the methods to numbers of design and noise variables. Lastly, the method is demonstrated on an electric power portfolio simulation code.PhDCommittee Chair: Mavris, Dimitri; Committee Member: Duncan, Scott; Committee Member: Ender, Tommer; Committee Member: German, Brian; Committee Member: Paredis, Chri
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