The informativeness of the technical conversion factor for the price ratio of processing livestock

The technical conversion factor (TCF) is a survey-based estimate of the percentage of carcass weight obtained per unit of live weight. Practitioners and researchers have used it to predict the corresponding price ratio (PR). We use both in-sample regressions and out-of-sample forecasting analysis to test the validity of this approach in case of predicting the price effects of processing livestock in Europe. By regressing the PR on the inverse value of the corresponding TCF for a large panel of European countries and animal types, we find a significant positive relation between these variables, which also has economic value in terms of improving out-of-sample forecasting precision. This result is shown to be robust to animal type, year, and country fixed effects. The TCF therefore has predictive value about the corresponding PR.(3

LIVESTOCK TO 2020: THE REVOLUTION CONTINUES

This paper was presented at the INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS SYMPOSIUM in Auckland, New Zealand, January 18-19, 2001. The Symposium was sponsored by: the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium, the Venture Trust, Massey University, New Zealand, and the Centre for Applied Economics and Policy Studies, Massey University. Dietary changes, especially in developing countries, are driving a massive increase in demand for livestock products. The objective of this symposium was to examine the consequences of this phenomenon, which some have even called a "revolution." How are dietary patterns changing, and can increased demands for livestock products be satisfied from domestic resources? If so, at what cost? What will be the flow-on impacts, for example, in terms of increased demands for feedgrains and the pressures for change within marketing systems? A supply-side response has been the continued development of large-scale, urban-based industrial livestock production systems that in many cases give rise to environmental concerns. If additional imports seem required, where will they originate and what about food security in the importing regions? How might market access conditions be re-negotiated to make increased imports achievable? Other important issues discussed involved food safety, animal health and welfare and the adoption of biotechnology, and their interactions with the negotiation of reforms to domestic and trade policies. Individual papers from this conference are available on AgEcon Search. If you would like to see the complete agenda and set of papers from this conference, please visit the IATRC symposium web page at: http://www1.umn.edu/iatrc.intro.htmDemand and Price Analysis, Production Economics,

THE PRICING EFFICIENCY OF AGRICULTURAL FUTURES MARKETS: AN ANALYSIS OF PREVIOUS RESEARCH RESULTS

The analysis examines quantitatively the findings of previous studies of the pricing efficiency of various agricultural markets using a logit framework. The findings provide insight into the importance of commodity characteristics, uncertainty, and testing procedures used on the results of past research of pricing efficiency. The study also identifies several areas for further research.Demand and Price Analysis,

Integrating Econometric Models of Australia's Livestock Industries: Implications for Forecasting and Other Economic Analyses

The perceived value of integrating small partial- equilibrium structural models of individual livestock industries into a comprehensive single-sector model is to take advantage of the interrelationships that are usually expressed by cross elasticities on both the supply and demand sides of these industries. Model integration should provide a more realistic representation of the livestock industries and an improved mechanism for industry analyses. However, model integration could also lead to increased error in model simulation that could reduce the value of the larger model for those purposes. Using forecasting as an example application, this paper investigates how the increased endogenisation of cross-commodity relationships in alternative structural econometric models of the Australian livestock industries affects the simulation performance of the larger model. Forecast accuracy and encompassing tests were used to investigate the value of model integration by comparing the accuracy of the models' forecasts and by testing for differences in the information contained in those forecasts. The general result was that combining the models did not adversely affect the forecasts from the integrated model and the encompassing tests indicated that the forecasts of the integrated and single models contained different information. Because the forecasts of the integrated model were not impaired relative to the single model forecasts, model integration was considered to be useful for forecasting and other types of economic analysis in the livestock industries.Structural econometric models, Model integration, Forecasting, Economic analysis, Livestock Production/Industries,

DYNAMIC REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF THE CALIFORNIA ALFALFA MARKET WITH GOVERNMENT POLICY IMPACTS

Alfalfa's heavy reliance on irrigation water and its role as an alternate to program crops makes it susceptible to changes in government farm policies. This article presents a dynamic spatial equilibrium model of the California alfalfa market. The model is used to forecast alfalfa acreage, prices paid and received, and transportation flows for the short run and the long run under the base year conditions. The base year results then are compared to a situation of changing demand due to reductions in federal water subsidies and the implementation of a cotton acreage-reduction program.Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries,

Economic Reform in the Newly Independent States of the Former USSR: Effects on Agricultural Production and Trade to 2005

International Relations/Trade,

Combination of the Swiss agrarian sector model SILAS-dyn with the life cycle assessment tool SALCA

The agricultural sector model SILAS-dyn has been used by Agroscope ART for 10 years for the political advisory of the Swiss agricultural administration. To evaluate the environmental effects of different policy scenarios, a LCA module has been developed, connecting a hierarchical linkage to an existing LCA calculating tool. This lowers the formulation input and simplifies the adaptation of updated environmental models. The results of four scenarios show, through the example of energy use as an environmental impact, that indirect effects, such as energy use in the context of imported concentrates, can influence conclusions significantly. The scenario suggesting an increase of fertiliser prices does not change the results significantly, whereas higher energy prices increase the pressure upon energy-intensive activities.Sector model, LP, Political advisory, LCA, Income, Agricultural and Food Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Producer Perceptions of Corn, Soybean and Cotton Price Risk

Risk is an inevitable part of agricultural production and all producers face various forms of risk. This study used the subjective price expectations and price distributions of survey participants to determine how producer’s expectations compare with that of the market. Data used for this study were gathered through survey responses from Mississippi State University Extension meeting and workshop participants. Individual respondent’s discreet stated price and price distribution information was fitted to a continuous distribution and an implied mean and standard deviation was determined. This was compared to market price and price risk data. Participants largely over-estimated price. Individual volatilities resulting from each fitted distribution were lower than that implied by the market.price risk, price perception, subjective probability elicitation, Production Economics, Q13,

The USDA/Land Grant Extension Outlook Program -- A History and Assessment

Base Document for a Power-Point Presentation Extension Section and Senior Section Track Session AAEA Centennial ThemeTeaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,

TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE IN THE U.S. BEEF AND PORK SECTORS: IMPACTS ON FARM-WHOLESALE MARKETING MARGINS AND LIVESTOCK PRICES

Real livestock prices and farm-wholesale marketing margins have steadily declined over the past 20 years. Many studies have examined the effects of increasing packer concentration on these declines. However, most have generally failed to account directly for technological change in livestock production and red meat slaughtering. We estimate reduced form models for beef and pork farm-wholesale marketing margins and cattle and hog prices that specifically include measures of technological change. Empirical results indicate that meat packing technology has reduced real margins and technological change embodied in cattle and hog production accounts for substantial declines in real slaughter cattle and hog prices. When technological change is explicitly considered, we find that increasing packer concentration: (1) does not affect real farm-wholesale marketing margins, (2) positively affects real slaughter cattle prices, and (3) does not affect real slaughter hog prices.livestock prices, marketing margins, packer concentration, technological change, Marketing, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, D4,