Hybridizing data stream mining and technical indicators in automated trading systems

Automated trading systems for financial markets can use data mining techniques for future price movement prediction. However, classifier accuracy is only one important component in such a system: the other is a decision procedure utilizing the prediction in order to be long, short or out of the market. In this paper, we investigate the use of technical indicators as a means of deciding when to trade in the direction of a classifier’s prediction. We compare this “hybrid” technical/data stream mining-based system with a naive system that always trades in the direction of predicted price movement. We are able to show via evaluations across five financial market datasets that our novel hybrid technique frequently outperforms the naive system. To strengthen our conclusions, we also include in our evaluation several “simple” trading strategies without any data mining component that provide a much stronger baseline for comparison than traditional buy-and-hold or sell-and-hold strategies

The Santa Fe Artificial Stock Market Re-Examined - Suggested Corrections

This paper rectifies a design problem in the Santa Fe Artificial Stock Market Model. Due to a faulty mutation operator, the resulting bit distribution in the classifier system was systematically upwardly biased, thus suggesting increased levels of technical trading for smaller GA-invocation intervals. The corrected version partly supports the Marimon-Sargent-Hypothesis that adaptive classifier agents in an artificial stock market will always discover the homogeneous rational expectation equilibrium. While agents always find the correct solution of non-bit usage, analyzing the time series data still suggests the existence of two different regimes depending on learning speed. Finally, classifier systems and neural networks as data mining techniques in artificial stock markets are discussed.Asset Pricing; Learning; Financial Time Series; Genetic Algorithms; Classifier Systems; Agent-Based Simulation

Exploring Evaluation Factors and Framework for the Object of Automated Trading System

Automated trading system (ATS) is a computer program that combines different trading rules to find optimal trading opportunities. The objects of ATS, which are financial assets, need evaluation because that is of great significance for stakeholders and market orders. From the perspectives of dealers, agents, external environment, and objects themselves, this study explored factors in evaluating and choosing the object of ATS. Based on design science research (DSR), we presented a preliminary evaluation framework and conducted semi-structured interviews with twelve trading participants engaged in different occupations. By analyzing the data collected, we validated eight factors from literatures and found four new factors and fifty-four sub-factors. Additionally, this paper developed a relationship model of factors. The results could be used in future work to explore and validate more evaluation factors by using data mining

IMPLEMENTASI DECISION TREE BERBASIS ANALISIS TEKNIKAL UNTUK PEMBELIAN DAN PENJUALAN SAHAM

The aim of this research is to develop decision support system using data mining decision tree method that is built base on technical analysis of financial market (EMA, MACD, OBV, RSI, and parabolic SAR). Those indicators are arranged as a trading rule that wi l l help in buying and selling decision. The data used in this research are historical stock price in Jakarta Stock Exchange The result of this research indicates that generally the system can give number of transactions result in capital gains higher than number of transactions result in capital loss. The system also has capability to make decision with average gains are higher than decision with average losses. Investigation to profitability, geometric mean, cumulative wealth index, and sensitivity test to moving average gives the description whether stock can be traded based on technical analysis or not. This system can make easier in making decision for the users/investors that do not have enough knowledge and experiences in financial market.Keywords: decision support system, data mining, decision tree, trading rules, technical analysis

Building agent-based hybrid intelligent systems : a case study

Many complex problems (e.g., financial investment planning, foreign exchange trading, data mining from large/multiple databases) require hybrid intelligent systems that integrate many intelligent techniques (e.g., fuzzy logic, neural networks, and genetic algorithms). However, hybrid intelligent systems are difficult to develop because they have a large number of parts or components that have many interactions. On the other hand, agents offer a new and often more appropriate route to the development of complex systems, especially in open and dynamic environments. Thus, this paper discusses the development of an agent-based hybrid intelligent system for financial investment planning, in which a great number of heterogeneous computing techniques/packages are easily integrated into a unifying agent framework. This shows that agent technology can indeed facilitate the development of hybrid intelligent systems.<br /

Mutual-Excitation of Cryptocurrency Market Returns and Social Media Topics

Cryptocurrencies have recently experienced a new wave of price volatility and interest; activity within social media communities relating to cryptocurrencies has increased significantly. There is currently limited documented knowledge of factors which could indicate future price movements. This paper aims to decipher relationships between cryptocurrency price changes and topic discussion on social media to provide, among other things, an understanding of which topics are indicative of future price movements. To achieve this a well-known dynamic topic modelling approach is applied to social media communication to retrieve information about the temporal occurrence of various topics. A Hawkes model is then applied to find interactions between topics and cryptocurrency prices. The results show particular topics tend to precede certain types of price movements, for example the discussion of 'risk and investment vs trading' being indicative of price falls, the discussion of 'substantial price movements' being indicative of volatility, and the discussion of 'fundamental cryptocurrency value' by technical communities being indicative of price rises. The knowledge of topic relationships gained here could be built into a real-time system, providing trading or alerting signals.Comment: 3rd International Conference on Knowledge Engineering and Applications (ICKEA 2018) - Moscow, Russia (June 25-27 2018